Jon Lieber
It seems like it was just a month ago that many were on the Yankees and Brian Cashman for their self-admitted market value miscalculation on attempting to re-sign Jon Lieber.
Wait, it was a month ago – and, the push then was mostly driven from the fact that Lieber, as of May 7th, had won 5 of his first 7 starts and had a tidy ERA of 2.57 in the process (while people like Jaret Wright and Kevin Brown were getting tattooed for New York).
But, all that Lieber talk seemed to fade away rather quietly. Why? Is it because Lieber, in his next 6 starts following May 7th, would allow 28 earned runs in 33 innings pitched? If I had to guess, I would say that had a hand in it.
If Jon Lieber continues to pitch so-so this season can we expect all those who were on Cashman, et al, to raise their hand and say “My bad!” or “Never mind“?
Think of it this way – if the Yankees had signed Lieber, then they would have not signed Wright. And, if Wright’s not on the team, then his injury does not open the door for Wang.
Carry that out to 2006. Brown will be gone. And, to replace him in the rotation, would the Yankees hand the spot to a kid who was in Columbus all year in 2005? Never – they’d sign someone, like another Wright. But, now, Wang proves himself in 2005, keeps a spot in 2006 (moving up in the order to replace Brown) and then the Yankees look for a cheaper 5th guy in 2006 or go with Wright, if he can pitch.
It’s funny how the wrong decision can sometimes work in your favor in the long run.
People like to point out Javy’s, Halsey’s and Lieber’s successes this year but no one seems to want to talk about the fact that they all went to the national league. Aren’t pitchers usually more successful going from the american to the national than vice versa? Even if they kept Lieber there was no guarantee that he would have those same stats.
“People like to point out Javy’s, Halsey’s and Lieber’s successes this year but no one seems to want to talk about the fact that they all went to the national league. Aren’t pitchers usually more successful going from the american to the national than vice versa? Even if they kept Lieber there was no guarantee that he would have those same stats.”
IIRC, there was a study that showed that the leagues really didn’t matter. Don’t remember where I saw it, tho’
IMO, if you can pitch, you can pitch, leagues be damned.
Javy has a track record of being up and down from season to season.
Halsey is a decent middle-back of the rotation starter.
Lieber is an average to above average starter.
And you’re right, nothing is guaranteed. But I was pretty suprised they let Lieber get away. Javy & Halsey I can understand, but Wright for Lieber doesn’t make sense to me, Lieber’s current struggles notwithstanding.
Wang has been a nice suprise, at a fraction of the cost. If he actually is ready for prime time, and the Yanks had preferred to go after a FA instead of handing the #5 spot to a rookie (oh the horror!) then George needs to talk to his development folks, because the people overseeing the minor league system aren’t doing their job
Actually, Tom Verducci did the following analysis of pitchers who switched from the AL to the NL and with results showing an ERA of almost a run less in the NL:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/tom_verducci/04/12/pedro.nl/
Thanks SL, a great opportunity to illustrate the concept of conditional vs. independent probability:
Anything could have happened to Lieber had he stayed, inlcuding a major injury, pitching horribly, winning the Cy Young, and about 2 million other outcomes.
Trying to equate Lieber’s NL performance this year with what he may have done with the Yankees is pointless as the two events are independent of each other.
Tim McCarver is also a prime offender on TV in this regard.
I’ll play the role of Lee here and question Verducci’s sample size. If I cut those samples just slightly, I can say going to the Yankees makes your ERA go up and leaving makes it go down.
I mostly agree with Rav about the pitchers. I was a bit more miffed they let Halsey go. I think he has a ton of potential. The kid made a solid debut _at Dodger Stadium_ and had a great start against Pedro at Fenway. There are lots of kids out there with a great pitch or two, but it’s not often you find a kid who can respond to pressure like that.
They also let Hernandez go. Now, he’s nobody’s ace, but they had the perfect contract with him – minimal salary, with bonuses for the number of starts he made. Low risk, pretty huge potential return for a five starter/long reliever.
Actually, Tom Verducci did the following analysis of pitchers who switched from the AL to the NL and with results showing an ERA of almost a run less in the NL:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/tom_verducci/04/12/pedro.nl/
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Nice article, but I’d need more than that. You’d need a study from 1973-present (or at least something more substantial than two years) for the study to really mean anything
That new Phillies ballpark is a launching pad.
As for El Duque, he should still be in Pinstripes.
Agreed 100% re: El Duque
There’s a southern colloquialism for the people who think if Lieber had stayed then the Yankees would be a better team:
“And if Aunt Jane had balls she’d be Uncle Jim.”
But, boy, would Aunt Jane’s hubby be upset!