A-Rod Does Not Know His Sox
Yesterday evening, Michael Kay had A-Rod on his ESPN Radio Show in NYC. Sure, there was some stuff that just reeked of host genuflection; but, I found one thing that A-Rod said to be interesting. Basically, it went to the tune of this: I believe one of the best ways to beat the Boston Red Sox is to throw left-handed pitching at them. It takes Nixon out of the game. It neutralizes Ortiz and Damon, and, it makes Mueller and Varitek bat right-handed.
At the time, hearing this, I thought “Well, the Yankees were very right-handed last year, maybe there’s something here?” So, today, I decided to look at the numbers. Yes, as we all know, Trot Nixon is such a push-over against lefties that the Sox will not even run him out there most of the time against a southpaw. There’s not much to look at there. But, what about the other four Sox that A-Rod singled out?
Actually, both this season, and over the last three years, Johnny Damon hits lefties and righties about the same. Makes no difference to him in terms of what you throw. And, this season, David Ortiz is killing lefties just as well as righties. Granted, in the past, LHP and Ortiz were not friends. But, for now, as far as the stats go, facing LHP is not hurting the Dominican Shrek.
Bill Mueller, on the other hand, has been a weaker hitter against LHP – both this season and over the last three. So, here, you get something.
This leaves Jason Varitek. And, with him, it’s the complete opposite of what A-Rod thinks. Varitek, this season and over the last three, kills LHP pitching. He feasts off it. Given the choice, there is no way that you want him batting right-handed, when playing you.
So, in summary, when you throw lefties at the Sox, you take away Nixon and Mueller. There is no impact, at least this year, to Ortiz and Damon. And, you really help Varitek. Oh, and, by the way, when you throw a lefty at the Sox, you also help Renteria (by a lot).
But, here’s the strange part: You, at least this year, hurt Manny and Millar with lefties on the hill. But, outside of this year, Ramirez tattooed LHP. So, who knows what’s up there?
Maybe you can look at it this way: You know that Damon, Ortiz, and Manny are going to hit. So, you just take them out as a given problem. Then, it’s a matter of: Do I want to help Nixon and Mueller or Renteria and Varitek? That seems like a push, no? Lefties or righties, the Sox are going to score runs. There’s no advantage to what you throw, at the end of the day. And, A-Rod was wrong with his idea.
If you look at the overall totals the last few years with the Sox against LHP their win-loss record is not all that good.
Varitek kills righties.
Ortiz I believe is batting .007 points better against LHP but his SLG% is much, much lower against lefties.
Mueller is just a decent hitter either way.
Again, like you said with how strange it was with Manny slumping against LHP, this year Nixon is hitting them a lot better.
It just seems if you put a quality lefty out there like Lilly or Kazmir or Chacin that the Sox really struggle.
//Varitek kills righties.//
Huh? This season, his OPS vs. RHP is .796
Against LHP, his OPS is 1.135.
Over the last three years, it’s .904 vs. LHP and .785 vs. RHP.
I think you have it backwards.
//Mueller is just a decent hitter either way.//
FWIW, this season, his OPS vs. RHP is .789
Against LHP, his OPS is .728.
Over the last three years, it’s .798 vs. LHP and .862 vs. RHP.
He’s a better hitter, batting left.
All this means is that in their minds, perception is reality. That isn’t always the case.
It MAY make sense that LHP do better against the Sox, but the numbers don’t bear that conclusion.
When I heard ARod mention that on the radio a couple of days ago (postgame after the Leiter start), I found that to be odd, because the rep was always that lefties couldn’t survive Fenway because RH batters would ping the Monstah all day long (and on the flip side, righties couldn’t survive YS because of the short porch).
To date, Boston is 12-11 vs. LHP and 39-31 vs. RHP. And, last year, they were 26-19 vs. LHP and 72-45 vs. RHP. So, I can see where someone might think “throw lefties” – but, the win loss marks do not tell you want happened in the game. Who started for the Sox? Who pitched in relief for both teams in that game? Who did the Sox pitchers face, etc.?
The best way to look at “does team X have a weakness to Y type of pitching” is looking at the batter-pitcher type match-ups.
//Varitek kills righties.//
Oops, I meant lefties. My fault.
No sweat.
I think it’s safe to say, that without a domination pitcher (or in Al Leiters case, a dominating pitching performance) on the mound, on any given day the Red Sox lineup will hit the ball hard, no matter which side of the rubber the ball comes from.
Don’t know if they’re leading the league or not, but the fact that they’re scoring so many runs tells me that the Sox are thumping all kinds of pitchers/pitching