It Just Comes Down To Starting Pitching
A recent comment on an entry here spurred me to look at the Yankees and Red Sox, side-by-side, so to speak.
To do this, I decided to use Win Shares. (For those who do not know, this stat is a Bill James creation that aims towards allowing player evaluation across positions, teams and eras. It measures the total sum of a player’s contribution expressed as one number.)
The good folks at The Hardball Times provide Win Shares data – and the most recent load they have is as of July 31st. Using this, here are how the Yanks and Sox stack up:
As you can see, where Boston has the edge over New York is in the starting pitcher department.
So, for the race for 1st in the AL East, at the end of the day, it probably will come down to “Who will pitch better from here until season end – Arroyo, Wells, and Miller or Chacon, Leiter and Small?”
What do you think?
I have great respect for sabermetric analysis, but this “win shares” stuff doesn’t tell me much–especially when it comes to our new starters. If they pitch decently down the stretch, their win shares will catch up.
Also, the idea that Mo has just one more win share than Timlin and Jeter has one less than Mueller strikes me as odd. I know sabermetrics tells us not to “trust our eyes,” but even the biggest Red Sox fan would tell you that Jeter and Mo are very special players whose greatness goes beyond the numbers. I’m quite sure Bill Beane has a moment from time to time when he says to himself, “How the f*** did he make that backflip to Posada?”
//If they pitch decently down the stretch, their win shares will catch up.//
Based on their past performance, what are the odds on that “if”? That’s the issue for me. It’s not impossible – nothing is, the 2004 ALCS taught me that. But, it is highly unlikely.
Now, of course, would it please me if it happened? Yes, to no end. But, I think the better approach is to expect nothing and be prepared for anything.
“Decently” is just good enough to give our offense a chance to win the game. And for the most part, that’s what we’ve gotten from Small, Leiter and Chacon. I think we are 7-3 or 8-2 in games started by these three. Now yes, that’s a small sample size. But I’m not going to predict that these three will immediately turn into Darrell May and Tim Redding either.
SL is right: Win Shares, other SABR analyses and even probability are all against the Yanks, so why should we care? pack it in…give the Red Sox the AL East crown right now and let them get ready for the playoffs.
I would remind you that we are now inside the number of games remaining necessary for a proper sample size for sabermetric analysis…We’re in the territory of increased variance from expected outcomes.
We have seen Chacon, Small and Leiter all make pitches for 6+ innings. They only have a seven week season in which to keep doing it, which favors them.
I think it’d be more useful for the partial season players to use WSAB or whatever WS uses for a rate stat.
//so why should we care? pack it in…give the Red Sox the AL East crown right now and let them get ready for the playoffs.//
Hey, I do care. But, I’m also not going to ignore the facts that it’s nothing but uphill for the Yankees – and, I’m not sure this team is full of climbers.
I hope like heck that I’m wrong. But, until proven wrong, I’m looking at the glass as half-empty.
Why? Sometimes, it’s just not your year. Look at this team? Does this look like it’s the Yankees year?
I am not trying to sound like a cockeyed optimist, but this team could have totally packed it in at any number of points over the course of this year. They haven’t. The Red Sox have played like .800 ball over the last couple of weeks and Oakland has been completely ridiculous–and we’re still in it.
On a few occassions, just when I’m ready to lose faith we score 8 in the 8th against Baltimore or we get two homers in the 9th off of Wickman or Aaron Small throws another big double play or we go into Fenway praying for a split and take 3 out of 4.
I’m not ready to say “Sometimes, it’s not our year” just yet.
I am not trying to sound like a cockeyed optimist, but this team could have totally packed it in at any number of points over the course of this year. They haven’t.
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There’s too much talent to just “pack it in”
Steve, why no Schilling? He is going to come back into the rotation soon, and while the Yanks will/may counter that by getting back the likes of Pavano or Wright, advantage has to go to Boston there. If you want to match up Moose and RJ with Schilling and Clement, that’s fine, but the other match-ups would then be “who will pitch better – Arroyo, Wells, and Wakefield, or Chacon, Leiter, and Small/Pavano/Wright.
I’m not being picky here, but the Schilling factor has to be considered in the long run, and to date, he has pitched pretty effectively without problem or pain.
Also, giving Foulke one point is pretty much a gift to him.