• ESPN.com Picks ALDS Winner

    Posted by on October 3rd, 2005 · Comments (18)

    I was just checking out the ESPN.com page for this ALDS. Here’s what their experts are predicting:

    000alds.jpg

    It doesn’t bother me that most are picking the Angels. In a way, it’s good that they’re mostly predicting a 5-game series. That means it should be close.

    Comments on ESPN.com Picks ALDS Winner

    1. Raf
      October 3rd, 2005 | 2:57 pm

      “Good pitching beats good hitting”

      We’ll see about that (:

    2. Jason O.
      October 3rd, 2005 | 3:01 pm

      I weight Neyer’s opinion quite a bit higher than the other 4, and not just because he picked the Yankees. He’s a big sabermetrics person, so he’s likely basing his opinion on a foundation of some sort, not just personal opinion, hunch, or what a bunch of baseball scouts told him.

    3. JohnnyC
      October 3rd, 2005 | 3:52 pm

      yeah, but Neyer hates the Yankees…makes no bones about hating them. Neyer’s been known to plead the “incompleteness” of sabermetric analysis when the results don’t conform to his pre-existing beliefs. Anyone who’s listened to his nasal, often snide ramblings on ESPN radio can’t be too comforted by the fact he picks us. None of these guys are making objective predictions.

    4. MJ
      October 3rd, 2005 | 3:55 pm

      I don’t weigh Neyer’s opinion for exactly that reason. According to Neyer, his stats tell him that Jeter’s an average player. I refuse to base opinions solely on stats. Stats can tell you whatever you want them to tell you.

      While I’m not happy that we’re the big underdog according to the “experts” it does give me some joy that Peter Gammons is picking against us. He picked against us in 2003 and 2004 vs the Twins. Screw Peter Gammons, he’s a total homer bum. Hall of Fame my ass.

    5. Raf
      October 3rd, 2005 | 4:03 pm

      I don’t weigh Neyer’s opinion for exactly that reason. According to Neyer, his stats tell him that Jeter’s an average player. I refuse to base opinions solely on stats. Stats can tell you whatever you want them to tell you.
      ===============================

      Not to pick nits, or to argue his point, but if _______ was an exceptional player, wouldn’t it show up in the stats?

    6. Shaun P.
      October 3rd, 2005 | 4:05 pm

      I’m with Jason O – Neyer picking us is a good sign. Anyone know what Prospectus is predicting?

    7. JeremyM
      October 3rd, 2005 | 4:11 pm

      After reading those picks, I feel a hell of a lot better about things.

    8. tom yf
      October 3rd, 2005 | 4:42 pm

      This is baseball, for god’s sake! People’s picks aren’t worth a bag of baseballs. Whom among these assholes picked the Yankees to win the division at the end of May?

    9. MJ
      October 3rd, 2005 | 4:53 pm

      Raf, I know what you’re saying. All I’m saying is that stats don’t tell you the whole story about a player. If you’ve watched any Yankee baseball in the last 10 years, and I know that you have, then you can answer the question about why Neyer thinks Jeter sucks.

      I’ve seen over 90% of Jeter’s games in Pinstripes. Jeter does not suck. He is one of the great players in the game, especially when the leaves turn brown and the air turns cold. Neyer’s obsession with stats (and with denigrating Jeter) make me laugh.

      Stats do not quantify what Jeter is.

    10. Bozo
      October 3rd, 2005 | 5:21 pm

      tom yf is right, it wasn’t too long ago that all these statistical sites and experts were predicting that the the Yankees were done and that they had .01% chance of winning the division and .02% of winning the wild card (I’m exaggerating but you get the point). Gammons is a Sox fans diguised as a columnist, Neyer hates the Yankees, I have no idea why he picked them. As they say ‘That’s why they play the games.’ We’ll see what happens, the Yanks alway have a tough time against the Angels, and that’s why they are the underdog. It’ll be interesting to watch.

      As far as Jeter goes, my eyes have shown me that while he may have a slightly limited range on ground balls, no one in the game tracks down a pop fly like he does or makes the jumping turn around throw as well as he does. As for stats, here’s one for you, Jeter’s lifetime OPS (isn’t this what the stat geeks like Neyer measure) .846, Tejada’s .815, that’s pretty significantly different.

    11. Philly Phil
      October 3rd, 2005 | 5:54 pm

      “It doesn’t bother me that most are picking the Angels. In a way, it’s good that they’re mostly predicting a 5-game series. That means it should be close.”

      Why- have they already seen the games- did they get the advance copy of the 05 ALDS…maybe they got their hands on the sports book from Back to the Future II?

      So because some analysts are picking it to be close- it should be close? what were these experts picking to win the AL east when the yankees were 11-19? Who did they predict to win the 2004 LCS when the Yanks were up 3-0?

      I’ll make a prediction- one team will win and one won’t. Hopefully it will be my team!

      Seems like all of those experts took the safe route….noone would have the guts to call for a sweep on either side….

      …I on the other hand will…. Yanks in three!

    12. Philly Phil
      October 3rd, 2005 | 5:56 pm

      Bozo- you mentioned that the Yankees are the underdog?

      Vegas Line- Yankees are favored to win (-$155)

    13. Jen
      October 3rd, 2005 | 7:40 pm

      Vegas lines don’t mean much. Betting lines are established to entice people to bet one way or the other. They don’t really have much to do with who is the actual favorite to win on paper, so to speak.

    14. ncyanks
      October 3rd, 2005 | 8:47 pm

      Actually Neyer said that Jeter should have won the MVP in 1999.

    15. JohnnyC
      October 3rd, 2005 | 9:04 pm

      Yeah, but he says that with an evil laugh.

    16. Paul in Boston
      October 4th, 2005 | 8:49 am

      No one’s reading this anymore, but for the record:

      1) Neyer does not think that Jeter is an average player. He thinks he’s excellent, only rarely the best shortstop in the game during the incredible years of Garciaparra, A-Rod, Tejada …
      2) Gammons can be very appreciative of the Yankees as well as the Sox, and critical of both teams as well.
      3) Prospectus is picking the Angels in 5.

      Hey, it’s a short series, and ANYTHING can happen!

    17. Raf
      October 4th, 2005 | 9:36 am

      I’ve seen over 90% of Jeter’s games in Pinstripes. Jeter does not suck. He is one of the great players in the game, especially when the leaves turn brown and the air turns cold. Neyer’s obsession with stats (and with denigrating Jeter) make me laugh.

      Stats do not quantify what Jeter is.
      =========================================

      I’ve seen about 90% of his games as well. I’d think we’d hardly offer any objective analysis.

      I don’t think he sucks. May be a bit overrated, playing in NY where everything’s bigger, but I don’t think he sucks.

      FWIW, look at his career numbers, look at his postseason numbers; pretty close (:

    18. Philly Phil
      October 4th, 2005 | 9:56 am

      I actually put more faith in betting lines than I do in sports reporters predictions.

      Rob Neyers prediction won’t cost his casino millions of dollars if he is wrong….bad lines do…in fact there is more science to sports betting lines than anything (have you ever seen how much data goes into coming up with a sports line? it is crazy!)

      That being said- either way they have to play the games

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