• Jeter & Matsui To Lack Pop In 2006?

    Posted by on December 14th, 2005 · Comments (4)

    I was just reading JC Bradbury’s “PrOPS: 2005 and Beyond” feature over at the Hardball Times.

    PrOPS is short for “predicted OPS.” The system that Bradbury uses is very interesting and recommended reading.

    Below are the 2006 PrOPS for notable Yankees, according to his system:

    Cano 0.753
    Giambi 0.922
    Jeter 0.784
    Matsui 0.782
    Posada 0.784
    Rodriguez 0.891
    Sheffield 0.854
    Williams 0.728

    If Derek Jeter posts an OPS of .784 in 2006 it will be one of the worst seasons in his career. Now, an OPS of .784 is not Womack-like. And, Jeter will always reach base – because he always has in the past. I figure this prediction implies that Derek will not have much “pop” in 2006 – sorta like his 1997 and 2002 seasons.

    Now, if the Yankees sign Johnny Damon and Jeter bats second and gets lots of fastballs, well, that could make a difference. But, if Jeter leads-off in 2006 and the Yankees 8th and 9th hitters are rarely on, then, perhaps this projection might come true.

    Related, note the predicted 2006 OPS for Matsui. That would be a 2003-ish Matsui and not the Godzilla-form circa 2004-2005. If this is true, that’s not good.

    I wonder if the Yankees look at these types of projections when figuring out how to fill holes in their line-up? It is food for thought – at the least.

    Comments on Jeter & Matsui To Lack Pop In 2006?

    1. JohnnyC
      December 14th, 2005 | 12:49 pm

      Does JP Ricciardi know about JC? Looks like he could get a job with the Jays any time he wants. My own prediction about JC’s predictions are that they’ll be wrong. And the odds are in my favor.

    2. December 14th, 2005 | 1:17 pm

      Well, it is a projection…….so, sure. But, it is an interesting way to look at production, taking the luck angle out.

    3. DownFromNJ
      December 14th, 2005 | 2:45 pm

      Those predictions seem pretty low. Look at Arod’s. I just don’t see Arod’s OPS dropping by 150 points.

      I wouldn’t be too worried.

    4. December 14th, 2005 | 3:21 pm

      FWIW, A-Rod was at .888 in 2004. And, prior to going to hitter heaven Texas, he was at .934 for his career. So, it could be seen as a 50 point drop.

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