• Taking A Regular Turn Helps

    Posted by on January 16th, 2006 · Comments (2)

    Here’s a prediction: If the 2006 Yankees do not have at least three members of their starting rotation make 30+ starts this year, they will not reach the World Series. Why? Check the history of the Torre Era:


    Other than 2000, any time the Torre-Yankees have failed to have at least 3 SP with 30+ starts, they have not reached the Series. And, for the record, in 2000, Cone and El Duque each had 29 starts – so, they came very close to getting three pitchers with at least 30 in that season.

    Comments on Taking A Regular Turn Helps

    1. DownFromNJ
      January 16th, 2006 | 2:08 pm

      Ok… let’s take a look at our chances.

      Give Randy Johnson a 75% chance of making 30 starts. He’s old, but he has done it every year but one since 1999.

      Moose is a difficult one to rate. He is getting older, but 2004 was the only year that he failed to pitch 30 starts since 1998. I’ll give him a 60% chance.

      Carl Pavano is hit or miss. If he is healthy, he’ll hit 30 starts. He did it in 03 and 04. Or, he could be injured. Flip of the coin. 50%

      Wang is a pretty good bet, based on past history, to not make 30 starts. But he did pitch 23 starts between AAA and the majors this year… missing considerable time with his shoulder injury. 45%.

      Shawn Chacon is difficult. It is difficult to gauge his health outside of Coors Field… or his effectiveness. Flip a coin. 50%.

      I like to calculate this the same way I calculate odds in a board game. 100% = 1 start making 30 starts. 300% = 3. The total sum here is 280%.

      So there is a reasonable chance that three starters will make 30 starts… to the tune of 40-50%.

      Yeah, it’s unscientific, and my system only makes sense to me 🙂

    2. January 16th, 2006 | 2:18 pm

      Hey, if I had to ballpark it, I would say there’s just about a 40% chance that they get 3 with 30+.

      None of the 4 after Unit are a lock, in my mind.

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