• Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster 2006

    Posted by on January 21st, 2006 · Comments (8)

    FYI, you might enjoy the review of Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster 2006 that I just did for NetShrine.com. Click here to read it.

    It was a very good book. From a Yankees fan angle, it looks like we should be very concerned about Shawn Chacon’s performance in 2006. According to their findings, he was very lucky in 2005.

    Comments on Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster 2006

    1. Raf
      January 21st, 2006 | 6:25 pm

      Why is that?

      Overall his numbers look pretty good; less hits to IP, more K’s than walks…

    2. January 21st, 2006 | 10:45 pm

      He stranded an above average amount of runners last year – and, on average, that’s hard to do every year. And, his hits allowed per balls in play was lower than average – and, again, that’s hard to do every season.

      When they adjust his ERA for 2005 – by looking at the components behind it – they say that, overall, it should have been more like 4.44 instead of 3.45. And, they predict an ERA of 4.77 in 2006.

    3. January 21st, 2006 | 10:47 pm

      Also, he’s a FB pitcher who does not K a lot – and, it’s hard for those types of pitchers to have a low ERA – unless they get lucky.

    4. JohnnyC
      January 21st, 2006 | 11:11 pm

      On the other hand, Chacon was throwing only 86-89 MPH in 2005, recovering from his arm surgery. Since he’s only 27, there’s every reason to think that 18 months out from surgery he’ll be throwing 93-95 MPH again. More than 5 MPH extry will increase his K rate as well as lower his balls in play. Not saying he’s going to have an ERA under 3.50 but there’s a lot more upside there than Shandler’s one-year analysis would predict.

    5. January 21st, 2006 | 11:17 pm

      Considering that 2005 was his best season ever – by far – out of the last 5 – maybe he’s better off without getting that xMPH back?

    6. Raf
      January 22nd, 2006 | 10:50 am

      I don’t know his H/R splits, but I’m sure getting out of Colorado helps a bit

    7. January 22nd, 2006 | 8:05 pm

      You have to remember, Shandler looks at the numbers before the final numbers. So, yes, his ERA might have dropped .6 in the move out of Coors – but, it terms of his command, control, dominance, etc., he was still the same pitcher. The stats that Shandler zeros in on are not impacted by a park.

    8. JohnnyC
      January 23rd, 2006 | 10:46 am

      Says in his bio, Shandler’s a “die-hard” Mets fan. You know, there are some scientists out there who believe in Intelligent Design.

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