• Damon’s Legs Value

    Posted by on January 27th, 2006 · Comments (6)

    According to David Pinto’s stats:

    Off the top of my head, it looks like Damon will save the Yankees 30 to 35 outs versus having Bernie in center for the full season.

    Hmmmm. The Yankees allowed about 4.9 runs per game last year. Let’s say that 35 outs equals 1.3 shutouts – on, in the case of last year’s Yankees defense, about 6 runs over the course of the season.

    Doesn’t sound like much, right?

    Well, if you assume that they Yankees score this year like they did last year, and start playing around with the Pythagorean theorem application, yeah, it only comes down to maybe something like one extra win in 2006 (with Damon out there).

    (And, this is very rough math here – I’m sure there’s a smarter way to figure out what 35 more outs means.)

    But, hey, sometimes one win is the difference between making the post-season or not. So, if it’s there for the taking – why not go for it?

    Comments on Damon’s Legs Value

    1. Raf
      January 27th, 2006 | 10:37 am

      But, hey, sometimes one win is the difference between making the post-season or not. So, if it’s there for the taking – why not go for it?
      ========

      And it dovetails nicely with the objective of winning as much ballgames as possible :)

    2. baileywalk
      January 27th, 2006 | 11:18 am

      One win can be a huge difference. Just last year it was the difference between having home-field advantage and not having it. Some people — well, a small few — believe the Yankees would have beat the Angels if they started at home. I think this is bull. Personally, I think if A-Rod doesn’t derail Wang’s game with his error, Bubba doesn’t crash into Sheffield, and Randy Johnson doesn’t flame out in his start, the Yanks probably would have gone on to another World Series win. But that’s just my opinion.

    3. David
      January 27th, 2006 | 12:33 pm

      Another way to look at 35 extra outs is to consider what 35 extra hits would mean. Damon had 624 ABs last year, so 35 addtional hits would have added 56 points to his BA — obviously significant.

      Put another way, Damon’s 2005 BA exceeded Bernie’s by 57 points. Including the fielding makes the overall difference 113 points. (However, Bernie walked more, so the difference in OBA is not quite as great.)

    4. Nick from Washington Heights
      January 27th, 2006 | 8:51 pm

      Damon’s signing does not represent a one win difference. Consider that Bernie and Crosy were our center fielders last year. Now plug in that .385 obp to our offense. Let A-Rod, Sheff et al go boom! and see the run differential (the Pythag theorem’s basis) get larger. The Yanks overpaid, but the good thing is the Yanks are rich, biatch! And the improvement in that position is great. 1 win? Try 5 wins or more. Steve will do the math for us.

    5. January 27th, 2006 | 9:43 pm

      David – it’s get better, since Damon replaces Sierra in the line-up and not Williams.

    6. rbj
      January 30th, 2006 | 2:50 pm

      Does going from Damon to Coco Crispies lose the Red Sox a win? So then the Yankees record would be 96-66, Boston 94-68. A comfortable 2 game margin, allowing the regulars to get a rest on the last day.

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