I’ve always been a fan of CoolStandings.com.
Everyday, they simulate the rest of the season (1 million times) for each team. They take into account a team’s strength of schedule and whether remaining games are at home or away. Most importantly, they take into account whether a team is improving (rather than just use their performance over the entire season).
According to their findings, on April 26th, the Yankees were on pace to win 98 games this season. Here’s where the Yankees are today:
That 98 win projection is now at 92.
At this rate (92 wins) New York would miss the post-season, completely, according to CoolStandings.com’s overall projections.