These numbers are very interesting to me.
First, A-Rod, this year, is doing what he’s always done in terms of looking at pitches in the box (P/PA). And, his BA/RISP is the same this year as the year he won the MVP (2005). Also, Alex is hitting line-drives (LD%) this year at the same pace as last year. (Actually, it’s a tick better this year.)
But, the results are not there this season for Alex – like in his Yankees MVP-season. A-Rod’s Gross Production Average (GPA) and RC/G numbers this year are more like 2004 than 2005. Why?
If you look at Alex’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BA/BIP) this year, you will see that it’s just like 2004 – and not like 2005. Also, Rodriguez’ Home Runs as a percent of outfield flyballs (HR/F) this season is the same as 2004 – and not like 2005.
Basically, this season, the hits are not falling in for A-Rod and the flies are not going over the fence – like they did in 2005.
So, is Alex just unlucky this year?
Well, if you consider that the 2004 numbers here are in line with the 2006 numbers, it means one of two things (I suppose):
Either A-Rod was unlucky in 2004 and 2006 (to date). Or, he was lucky (relatively speaking) in 2005.
I don’t know which is the answer. I will try and get another opinion (or two) on the interpretation of this data, from parties more versed in this type of analysis, to see if there’s an answer here. Stay tuned.