The 2006 A.L. MVP, Sabermetrically Speaking
Using the advanced metrics that sites like FanGraphs.com, HardballTimes.com, The Clutchiness Blog, and tools like the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia have to offer, we can stack up the contenders for the 2006 A.L. MVP in an interesting way. The stats are below (and, for “fun,” I added Alex Rodriguez to the group – just for another interesting comparison).
When you look at all the advanced stats, both in terms of total production and in the clutch, and compare them across all of the 2006 A.L. MVP contenders, it sure does appear that the award should be Derek Jeter’s to lose (going into the last four weeks of the season).
When you boil it down, it’s basically Jeter against Jermaine Dye in this race – in terms of legit contenders for MVP. But, Dye’s numbers are not that far off from teammate Jim Thome’s totals in this study. When you have two players this close, on the same team, is it possible to say that one is the “most valuable” in the league, when you can’t even say that one is “more valuable” than another on his own team?
For the Yankees, it’s been the Jeter, Giambi and Damon show this year. But, Giambi was not so great for the Yankees this year during May and July. He was not as consistent this year as you would like to see from an MVP. And, bottom line, as great as Johnny Damon has been for New York this season, Derek Jeter has been better.
Derek Jeter should be the 2006 A.L. MVP. Now, it’s just up to the voters to get it right.
Here’s more on the stats that were used in this study:
While I do hope that Jeter wins, I find it hard to believe that Damon isn’t a bigger part of the conversation. While Jeter’s OBP is better than Damon’s (.418 to .371), Damon sees more pitches on average and has slugged at a higher rate (.515 to .482). Jeter’s BA bests Damon’s by 40 points, but Damon has twelve more homers. The other mainstream offensive categories are fairly close, but Damon has played an exceptional centerfield this year; and he absolutely destroyed the Sox in the biggest series of the regular season.
I’m not saying Damon should win it, just that he should be much higher on everyone’s MVP list.
Plus, I have to wonder if Damon is not on the team, and Jeter has to bat lead-off, if Jeter’s numbers would suffer some then…..
How’d you pick those candidates, Steve? I would have at least looked at the top pitchers. And if you’re going to include Ortiz, then you ought to consider Manny, who is better offensively and sometimes even shows up in the field, and Hafner, who leaves the rest of the AL in the dust offensively.
My opinion of WPA, Clutchiness, etc. is well-documented, so I won’t rehash it.
I just when with the names that everyone in the media says should be in the MVP race.
You always hear Papi – and never Manny.
I don’t agree with it, but, that’s what you hear from the voters.
Would people please stop using the word ‘invent’ to refer to people creating new statistics? Invent has much more significance than finding a new way to manipulate numbers.
It is especially silly when applied to Lee Sinins’ ‘invention’ of RCAA. All Lee did was take another statistic, which was original, and add an element to compare it with the average. He didn’t invent squat. Besides, RCAA as Lee uses does not come close to actual production. Because of this fact, the statistic should be questioned as a comprehensive statistic.
Clutchiness? That’s my new favorite word. It kind of sums up how unbelievably silly the whole sabermetrics thing can get.
How about “clutchivity”. Really want DJ to win it (he made his team a winner), but Papi probably gets the nod (two years running at the top of the hitting game, health scare, dangerous close and late, ESPN poster boy). DH’s should have to overwhelm to have a chance to win the MVP. Maybe Hafner, Ortiz, Giambi, Thomas and Thome will split he DH vote and push Jeter over he top. Manny and Johnny both deserve more ink, as well as Morneau and Mauer (I’m partial to catchers that can swing the stick especially late in the year). Batting title got real close after yesterday. Tejada ought to be eliminated from the race because he hasn’t had a meaningful AB in two years.
Why are these statistics refered to as “advanced”? Any stat that says Melvin Mora and Geoff Jenkins are the most clutch players in their respective leagues cannot be taken seriously. Those guys haven’t played in an important game all year. And any stat that says Shawn Chacon is a better clutch hitter than ARod…well, I guess some Yankee fans would agree with that.
I think “advanced” just refers to anything beyond what you’d read in your average boxscore or sports page. As for RCAA, I think it has value as a comparative offensive statistic. Lee tends to use it as a comprehensive statistic, which it is not, but that shouldn’t diminish its usefulness in the proper context.
It’s been a week and a half since anyone posted here, and anyone paying any attention to what’s gone on during that week and a half of baseball would not only want to give the AL MVP to Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer, but to Johan Santana as well.
It’s no secret nor is it difficult to say that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball this year, and with a 38-3 record after the All-Star break in each season since 2003 (9-0 this year), he may be even the best pitcher in baseball for the past 4 years, with a Cy Young award in ’04 and another one very likely this year.
Not only does Santana dwarf the rest of AL in most pitching categories this season, including the three triple crown categories with 18 wins, 230 K’s, and an ERA of 2.75, but he beats out the NL pitchers in most of those categories also. In strikeouts, only two of the other nine pitchers in the top 10 of the MLB are in the AL. In ERA only three of the other nine are in the AL. Not only is Santana dominating the other pitchers in the American League, but the others in the National League as well, a league that supposedly favors pitching.
And if all those league-leading stats and Santana’s record of 17-2 since May 2 isn’t good enough for all you nay-sayers saying that pitchers shouldn’t get the MVP, then get this: The twins are 26-5 in games that Santana has started this year. All eight of Santana’s no decisions this year were ultimately still won by the Twins. In fact, the Twins haven’t lost a game at home that Santana has started since August 1 of 2005, a game they lost 2-1. Why? Because of the undeniable clubhouse presence and leadership he brings to that dugout. When his team is batting, even in games that he’s not pitching, he’s in there on his feet cheering them on, giving them the confidence and inspiration to perform as well as he does.
Johan Santana is the morale captain of the Minnesota Twins. When he goes out on the mound for them, they win. Tonight, with only 16 games left in the regular season, the hot-hitting Twins face the Indians, sitting a single game behind Detriot in the AL Central lead for the first time since the second day of the year, and tonight he takes the mound for them in Cleveland vs. a pitcher who is 1-9.