• Yanks Vs. Mets – The Hurlers

    Posted by on September 19th, 2006 · Comments (9)

    Now that the Mets have clinched the N.L. East, I thought this would be a good time to compare the pitching staffs of the Yankees and Mets. Here are their stats, via the CBE, as of today:

    YanksMets919.jpg

    Trachsel and Johnson line-up nicely – two guys who are lucky to have as many wins as they do this season.

    I like the match-up of Pedro and Glavine against Wang and Mussina. The Yankees have an edge there. The fourth and fifth starters on each team are a push.

    Wagner and Rivera line-up nicely as well. Ditto on Heilman and Proctor.

    To be honest, I was surprised to see Bradford, Feliciano, and Oliver show up better than Farnsworth, Villone and Myers.

    The rest of the pen men for each team are somewhat like the fourth and fifth starters here – someone could surprise, but, on the whole, it’s a push.

    So, the Yankees have a better front end of the rotation and the Mets have a deeper bullpen in terms of effectiveness.

    If these two teams face each other in the World Series, this could be an issue for the Yankees since their plan of attack is to get to a team’s middle men as soon as possible. And, the Mets middle relievers are, statistically, a solid group.

    Once the Yankees clinch, I’ll compare the hitters on both teams in the same manner.

    Comments on Yanks Vs. Mets – The Hurlers

    1. baileywalk
      September 19th, 2006 | 11:05 am

      Most of the guys in the Mets ‘pen are having career years and pitching way over their heads. The numbers of Bradford, Feliciano and Oliver are a testament to the horrible hitting of the NL. All three are soft-tossers who use deception. I’d take our ‘pen over theirs because we can bust out three power arms in a row — Bruney, Proctor and Farnsworth. I see Farnsworth, using this formula, apparently has no value, but outside of one bad-back day in Anaheim, hasn’t this guy been great in the second-half of the year? He converted every save while Mo was gone, and that “failure” the other night was on Bernie Williams. They do baby him a lot, but I think people underestimate the value of Farnsworth.

      The guy on their side who can give us fits is Heilman. He dominated us the first time we saw him (he’s got a sick change). He struggled for a while and is now thriving in the setup role. But he has definitely been more hittable than he was when we last faced him.

      Billy still has to prove he can get it done in a big spot. Though there’s nothing easy about hitting a lefty who’s throwing 100 if you’re a lefty — and we have plenty of lefties on this team.

    2. christopher
      September 19th, 2006 | 12:51 pm

      I wonder if Darren Oliver still has that “Property of Jason Giambi” tattoo? Isn’t Giambi like 40 for 60 lifetime against him?

      I don’t think the Yanks will be losing any sleep over guys like Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez, and Darren Oliver. Put those guys in the AL and their ERA will go up by 2.00.

    3. September 19th, 2006 | 1:04 pm

      Christopher–yeah Giambi owns him. The entire Yankees team owns Chad Bradford too. When he was with the A’s he inviariably got smacked around by the Yanks.

      Also you are right to note this is comparing AL pitching stats to NL pitching stats.

      The Mets starters worry me in a possible WS matchup because Pedro, Glavine, Duque and Maine, any of them can really kill a lineup at the right time. I’m sure Pedro needs no extra incentive to beat the Yankees, and Duque won’t fool Jeter, Bernie, or Posada, but I hope those three educate the rest of the lineup.

      My Series prediction: Yankees def. Dodgers in 6

    4. September 19th, 2006 | 1:46 pm

      FWIW, the RSAA totals take away the NL/AL league and park factors. You can use the RSAA numbers to compare them straight up.

    5. christopher
      September 19th, 2006 | 2:28 pm

      Not a big fan of RSAA, but that’s another story. I think it has it’s uses when comparing starters, but it’s not worth comparing the RSAAs of relief pitchers. There’s too much diversity in how a relief pitcher is used to make fair comparisons.

      Although the numbers show that Bradford, Oliver, and Feliciano are superior pitchers, it just doesn’t feel right to me.

      As Mark Twain said – there are 3 types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    6. Don
      September 19th, 2006 | 2:48 pm

      Farnsworth had a back problem last night, so they said on YES post game.

      A guy that cannot pitch reliably on back-to-back days is problematic.

    7. Raf
      September 19th, 2006 | 3:05 pm

      Although the numbers show that Bradford, Oliver, and Feliciano are superior pitchers, it just doesn’t feel right to me.
      ====================
      If used properly, they can be superior pitchers.

    8. christopher
      September 19th, 2006 | 3:22 pm

      I guess that’s kinda my point, Raf. In the situations they’ve been in (low risk/pressure situtations, meaningless games, etc), they’ve done great. The numbers show that. However, I question how those numbers will translate in a playoff environment.

      One could argue that the Mets haven’t played in a do or die game all year. I just don’t think Darren Oliver or Chad Bradford will be breezing through guys like Pujols, Nomar, Kent, Piazza, whoever, come October.

    9. Raf
      September 19th, 2006 | 4:25 pm

      However, I question how those numbers will translate in a playoff environment.
      ===============
      It can go either way. Sometimes players go on a hot streak, sometimes they don’t.

      FWIW, Bradford and Oliver have pitched in the postseason.

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