I hope you’re right Mike – but, again, this all assumes that the Yankees can get him. The posting system is tricky.

Hey Steve.

How about these names:

Tomo Ohka – never pitched in Japan

Masato Yoshii – 3.71 career ERA, more than half of his games were relief appearances. Started 20+ games 3 times in 16 seasons.

Hideo Nomo – walked 100+ batters a year in Japan. Horrific arm surgery before arriving in the US. Still won ROY with a 2.54 ERA, and a 3.19 in his second season. He threw 2 no hitters in his career despite having major arm issues stemming from his surgery in Japan.

Kazuhisa Ishii – 1.30 career WHIP in Japan. Only made 20+ starts in 5 of his 10 seasons in Japan. Career 3.38 ERA was very good.

Hideki Irabu – 1.32 career WHIP in Japan. Only made 20+ starts 3 out of 9 seasons before coming to the US.

Mac Suzuki – Started 24 games in Japan before coming to the US. He had a 7.53 ERA.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 1.14 WHIP and 2.94 career ERA (2.50 ERA and 1.07 WHIP since his 22nd birthday).

The problem with using other Japanese pitchers as a precedent for Matsuzaka is that each decent pitcher has been locked into a 9 year commitment to the Japanese club after pitching in his 1st pro game. Most guys have seen their best years come and go before they’re eligible to come to the US. There’s always more guaranteed money waiting for them in Japan so they never come. For that reason alone, we’ve NEVER seen a top flight Japanese pitcher come to the Majors. This will be the first time. He is everything advertised.

I leave you with this note. If Japanese baseball is AAAA level and a guy throws 4 years at a 2.50 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP at AAA, he is the goods at 26 years old. If this guy was at Columbus, we’d be freaking out about him. He happens to have played in a more competitive environment with these results. Have faith.

Steve, Nomo completely dominated in his first couple of years in the bigs, he was as much of an ace as anyone during those 2 years, what happend to him was that he got hurt and lost both command and velocity, that’ll kill any pitcher.

Matz’s stats is very comparable with Nomo, perhaps even better, considering he pitchs in a tougher era for pitchers in Japan.

There is of course risk in signing him, there is risk in anyone. really.

As for Moose, I’m mixed , on the one hand I agree with you that if we have better options we really shouldn’t bring him back .. on the other hand do we really have better options out there than signing Moose at 2 year 20M?

RJ should retire, though he has 16M reason not to :/

Pavano needs to be dumped… big time… I don’t care if we eat some of the money and/or not get much back, he needs to go.

improving a team isn’t just about signing the biggest gun out there.

The only realistic trade the Yanks could pull off for something useful must start with A-rod.. unfortunately.

I did a little research on the Japanese posting system and apparently once Matsuzaka is posted, major league teams have 40 days to make a bid. If he is posted at the end of this week, the posting period will end in late November. That would be about a week before the Winter Meetings start. I doubt that Zito will sign elsewhere before the Winter Meetings. So, if the Yankees miss out on Matsuzaka, they would still have time to bid on Zito — something I’m not crazy about.

Matsuzaka’s era this year was 2.13. Of course, MLB is not as pitcher friendly, so let’s assume that goes up a full run. That’s still 3.13, 2nd best in the AL!

The dimensions of his home park: 328 down the lines, 380 to the alleys, 400 to center.

Forget he’s Japanese. His stuff says Roger Clemens/Curt Schilling, with a slightly slower fb, but a better slider.

Problem with Hughes is the Yankees were basically limiting him to five innings the last two months. He’ll need a bullpen of his own, just like Wright and RJ do. IOW, he needs to be stretched (and not on a rack) in AAA and I don’t know what we’ll get from in 2007 in the Bronx. Maybe out of the bullpen himself in 2007?

FWIW, we’re all assuming that the Yankees can get this pitcher. Maybe the Red Sox will rent out all the rooms in a hotel or something and try and block NY?
============
Didn’t work so well for them last time

Hey no problem – I’m using this as my outlet before I go off half-cocked over at BTF.

I think Matsuzaka will wind up either in New York or Seattle.

For the Yankees, there’s the MAtsui factor, the tradition, etc… there’s also the money. The Yanks can probably outbid everyone for the posting fee in order to get the exclusive rights to him.

This was the case with Matsui, and with Irabu, the Yanks traded some minor leaguers to San Diego for the right to negotiate with Irabu.

Either way, New York probablyhas the inside track.

Thanks SMinDC.

FWIW, we’re all assuming that the Yankees can get this pitcher. Maybe the Red Sox will rent out all the rooms in a hotel or something and try and block NY?

Raff – those are IP totals based on 5 days rest. I would offer that throwing 175 IP in a season, with getting 5 days rest, is like only throwing 140 IP when getting 4 days rest, ballpark.
========
How do you arrive at that figure?

FWIW, pitchers in NPB pitch on their throw days as well.

I wouldn’t sweat it too much. There have been pitchers of all shapes and sizes and abilities that have been able to throw in a 5-man rotation. I don’t see why he would not be able to adjust.