First Inning: Philip Hughes
Posted by Steve L. on October 30th, 2006 · Comments (3)
FirstInning.com has all the numbers on Philip Hughes.
According to their “Similar Players” findings, this is what they have for Hughes:
Similarity Score – Player – Year
32 Dontrelle Willis 2003
22 Aquilino Lopez 2001
19 Jonathan Broxton 2005
18 Zach Duke 2004
16 Jesus Silva 2002
13 Edwin Jackson 2003
12 Yusmeiro Petit 2005
12 Ryan Wagner 2003
11 Brad Penny 1999
7 Anibal Sanchez 2005
D-Train is a fun comp. But, Aquilino Lopez? Yikes.
I do find stuff like this interesting, especially when it gives me more of an excuse to get excited about Phil Hughes. However, those player projections and the similarity scores don’t appear to be as practical as they are interesting. I assume sites like these have been doing projections for a few years now. What are the correlations for the projections and what happens in real life? I realize nothing can be predicted to much accuracy, but a correlation of r=.75 at least would give me a little faith that their formulas are working.
Sigh.
That site is a joke. Their comps are moronic and their projected stats for Hughes simply bizarre. They have him regressing in his second year and don’t have him anywhere near a strikeout per inning.
The bottom line is that he led AA in ERA and had more than a strikeout per inning (he only gave up 73 hits in 116 IP!). And that doesn’t include his dominating performance in the playoffs (13 Ks in 6 innings).
Also, they mention his “injury history,” which shows they’re grabbing shit off the ‘Net and they don’t really know this player. Phil’s “injuries” (a sore shoulder) were in 2005 and he didn’t have any issues with it this year, despite his increased workload.
The projections on that site are meaningless.
Well, there are some good pitchers there. AND the most comparable is D-Train. Sanchez, Penny, Duke also.
But stats dont mean everything. Most stuff I’ve read (from ‘experts’ if you will) have Hughes & Homer Bailey as the top 2 pitching prospects in baseball. That’s what I’m most excited about.