First Inning: Philip Hughes

3 Responses to “First Inning: Philip Hughes”

1. mehmattski on October 30th, 2006 4:02 pm

   I do find stuff like this interesting, especially when it gives me more of an excuse to get excited about Phil Hughes. However, those player projections and the similarity scores don’t appear to be as practical as they are interesting. I assume sites like these have been doing projections for a few years now. What are the correlations for the projections and what happens in real life? I realize nothing can be predicted to much accuracy, but a correlation of r=.75 at least would give me a little faith that their formulas are working.

2. baileywalk on October 30th, 2006 4:21 pm

   Sigh.

   That site is a joke. Their comps are moronic and their projected stats for Hughes simply bizarre. They have him regressing in his second year and don’t have him anywhere near a strikeout per inning.

   The bottom line is that he led AA in ERA and had more than a strikeout per inning (he only gave up 73 hits in 116 IP!). And that doesn’t include his dominating performance in the playoffs (13 Ks in 6 innings).

   Also, they mention his “injury history,” which shows they’re grabbing shit off the ‘Net and they don’t really know this player. Phil’s “injuries” (a sore shoulder) were in 2005 and he didn’t have any issues with it this year, despite his increased workload.

   The projections on that site are meaningless.

3. 98Yanks on October 30th, 2006 5:27 pm

   Well, there are some good pitchers there. AND the most comparable is D-Train. Sanchez, Penny, Duke also.

   But stats dont mean everything. Most stuff I’ve read (from ‘experts’ if you will) have Hughes & Homer Bailey as the top 2 pitching prospects in baseball. That’s what I’m most excited about.

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