…seems to me that the cards are stacked ever-so-slightly against Wang having a 100-win career.
While I would normally agree with the similarity method approach that Walsh used in his study – heck, I’ve taken a (excuse the pun) similar approach here in the past – there’s one element of Wang’s game (these days) that I believe gets lost in these types of studies.
Chien-Ming Wang’s average fastball speed was 93.1 MPH in 2006 – I looked it up.
I would guess that hurlers like Ray Fontenot, Greg Hibbard, Chris Holt, and Joe Magrane were not averaging that on their heater.
This is why I now think Wang is an exception to the rules that usually apply towards career projections for below-average K-rate pitchers.
I like to believe that Wang has the stuff to whiff hitters, via 93 MPH gas, it’s just that he prefers to get outs quicker with grounders. But, then again, I’m a Yankees fan. So, it only makes sense for me to want to believe that Wang will go on to have a nice career in New York.