What A Difference Two Months Makes
Two months ago, I wrote that the Yankees were short two quality pitchers in their 2007 rotation – and that was why next season was going to be just like 2004, 2005, and 2006.
Since that time, New York has re-signed Mike Mussina, won the rights to sign Kei Igawa, and signed Andy Pettitte. While I was on record before the Moose signing that bringing him back was a mistake, now that Pettitte is here, I think Mussina is a good piece to the Yankees 2007 puzzle.
Let’s stay on Pettitte for a minute or two. Since 2000, Andy Pettitte has posted a positive RSAA season every year – with a high of 43 RSAA in 2005 and a low of 4 RSAA in 2004. For the most part, Pettitte been near double-digits RSAA in each of the last seven years.
Only two pitchers in baseball have posted 1+ RSAA seasons for the last seven years in a row: Andy Pettitte and Barry Zito.
In fact, over the last six seasons in a row, only five pitchers have had 1+ RSAA each season: C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Pettitte and Zito.
Andy Pettitte is a solid, reliable, big league pitcher. He’s a true #2 man in the rotation who will win 15-something games for you a year (thereabouts).
By having Pettitte, to now follow Worm Killer Wang in the Yankees rotation, this allows Mussina to be the Yankees #3 man in their 2007 rotation. At this stage in his career, being #3 is the perfect role for Mussina. Therefore, I’m dropping my issue with the decision by the Yankees to re-sign Moose.
Further, this means that Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner and most likely Kei Igawa are available to cover the Yankees last two slots in their rotation.
At the end of the day, I expect Johnson and Igawa to win the final two spots – and they will be backed up by Karstens and Rasner (which is good because these two lefties do carry some question marks in 2007).
Pavano will be traded by April 1, 2007 – unless Johnson’s health takes a huge turn for the worse and Pavano really impresses Torre and Cashman between now and March. (I suppose Pavano could be kept if Igawa does not sign – but I would be surprised if Igawa does not join the team.)
Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Johnson & Igawa give the Yankees a solid rotation. With three lefties, this rotation reminds me of the 1980 Yankees, where:
Pettitte = Ron Guidry
Johnson = Tommy John
Igawa = Tom Underwood
Mussina = Luis Tiant
Wang = Ed Figueroa
Except Wang is much, much, better than Figgy. And, maybe Johnson should be line-up with Underwood and Igawa with John – given the “stuff” that Unit and Igawa have at this stage of their careers.
Is this all too much to digest? Here’s a simple thing to noodle:
Compare the Yankees 2006 rotation to how the 2007 one projects. Wang, Mussina and Johnson are constant. However, Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa replace Jaret Wright and Shawn Chacon/Corey Lidle.
Ladies and Germs, that’s an upgrade – and it’s a beautiful thing. And, it only took 2 months to happen.
Maybe I don’t have the grasp on the metrics like other people do, but to me Pettitte ( stat-wise)has always been like Mussina but with a higher ERA, more walks, and less Ks ( and I suppose higher run support since he has managed to win 20 with high ERA).
ANY discussion that Mussina is overpaid has to include Pettitte. I like all these guys, and as a fan, hope they all do well. But these comparisons are always interesting.
At this point, Mussina has to look like a bargain in this market. I think quite a few guys, who have never had a year as good as Mussina’s worst season, have been signed to long term deals at $10 mil+ per.
Let’s sign Clemens again to so we can see if we can have another 2001 ( and/or 2003, I think) where Mussina has the lowest ERA, least walks,most strikeouts, but somehow less wins than Andy and Roger. What about David Wells, is he available?
I don’t understand how your opinion on Mike Mussina has changed simply because the Yankees have signed Andy Pettitte. Your argument is that Mike Mussina is now acceptable because he is a number three starter instead of a number two starter. What exactly is the difference between a number two and number three starter? They’ll both get about 33 starts a season, and they’re both guaranteed at least one start in each postseason series. I mean, in the postseason there is obviously a difference between a team’s top three and bottom two starters (or top four and bottom one) because the bottom two/one don’t pitch. Also there’s a difference between your number one starter and everyone else because he’s much more likely to pitch two/three times in a given postseason series. But a difference between a number two and number three starter? C’mon.
When you’re looking at free agent starting pitchers, you should look at their age, their recent performance, their durability, their peripherals, etc, compare them with what’s available on the market, and price them accordingly. That’s it. If you didn’t like Mike Mussina before, I don’t see why you would like him now. Though I think it would be crazy to call signing either Moose (23/2yrs) or Andy (16/1yr) a bad deal considering the market this off-season and the short terms of the deals (hedging the risk of signing these veteran pitchers and giving the Yankees more financial flexibility).
Jordan, for me, it comes to win expectancy. You expect your #2 man to be able to win 15-20 games. You expect your #3 man to win 12-15ish.
There’s no way that Mussina is someone who you can say will win 15+ games at this stage of his career. In 2006, for a fact, he just touched 15 wins. The last time we won more than 15 was 2003.
In the worst season of his career, Pettitte was still good for 14 wins (in 1999) – and he won 17 as recent as 2005.
It’s not a slight on Moose – more so, it’s that Pettitte is 3 years younger. I’m sure that three years from now, Pettitte will be like Mussina now – someone who is probably good for closer to 15 wins than 20.
Come on, Steve, you know better than that. Wins and losses are totally dependent on your team. Pettitte won one less game than Moose but Moose had a lower ERA in a much tougher division.
A perfect example is that Pettitte had 7 wins in the first half with a 5.28 ERA and 7 wins in the second half with a 2.80 ERA.
You can’t write any pitcher down for any amount of wins because it’s up to the team. Clemens had a 1.87 ERA in ’05 and only won 13 games.
And for what it’s worth, Mussina outperformed Pettitte this year without having a pitcher to throw to. So I don’t know that you just slot Pettitte in as the number two. I’d say they are equals right now, with maybe a little edge to Mussina.
~~~Mussina outperformed Pettitte this year without having a pitcher to throw to. So I don’t know that you just slot Pettitte in as the number two. I’d say they are equals right now, with maybe a little edge to Mussina.~~~
Pettitte had 9 RSAA in 214 IP. Mussina had 18 RSAA in 197 IP. So, yes, Moose out-performed him in 2006. But, what about 2004 and 2005? Over the last 3 years, it’s not close – Pettitte was better tban Moose – and Andy is 3 years younger than Mike.
How can you then give the edge to Mussina?
Pettitte had 9 RSAA in 214 IP. Mussina had 18 RSAA in 197 IP. So, yes, Moose out-performed him in 2006. But, what about 2004 and 2005? Over the last 3 years, it’s not close – Pettitte was better tban Moose – and Andy is 3 years younger than Mike.
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And the duration of their career? The time they pitched together on the Yanks?
Steve, do you realize that at age 37 Mike Mussina put up a better ERA than Andy Pettitte ever had (save for one improbable year) in the AL in his career?
Also, you want to bring up ’04? Fine. Pettitte was out for most of the year.
You want to bring up ’03? Fine. Mussina was better than Pettitte (again, wins mean nothing).
In ’03, Mussina threw 214 innings and had a 3.40 ERA with a 40/195 BB/K
Pettitte in ’03 threw 208 innings (less than Mussina), had a 4.02 ERA, and had a 50/180 BB/K.
So Mussina was better in ’03, better in ’04 by default, Andy was much better in ’05, and Mussina was much better in ’06. (In the last four years it’s 3-to-1 Moose.)
So yeah, I absolutely without question give the edge to Mussina. He was better when the competition was the same, and he was better (this year) when the competition was ten times better.
As far as I’m concerned, Mussina is the number two on this team.
I’m not taking shots at Andy, whom I like a lot, but people are somewhat delusional when they compare these two. Moose has had the better career overall and I don’t even think it’s a question who’s been a better pitcher since 2001, when Moose came here.