• 2007 ZiPS Projections

    Posted by on December 21st, 2006 · Comments (16)

    Via BaseballThinkFactory.org, Dan Szymborski shares his 2007 projections for the Yankees.

    Dan likes Melky and the Big Unit in 2007. Personally, I think Darrell Rasner will have a much better year than his projections through ZiPS. Josh Phelps with just 5 less homers than A-Rod? Won’t that be some story – for both those players involved.

    Update: Whooops! Ignore the last comment on the homers. I was looking at the doubles column by mistake. I guess that I should not read stat projections so late at night!

    Comments on 2007 ZiPS Projections

    1. elbambino
      December 22nd, 2006 | 12:02 am

      Dan projects A-Rod to hit 32 homers, while Phelps will only hit 21 homers, a difference of 11 homers.
      But surprising since I expect A-Rod to be around 40 homers (assuming his head is semi-right), and Phelps in the 15-18 range.
      Wow, it sure would be great if Melky puts up those optimistic numbers – say, hit .314 with 12 homers in 300 at-bats.

    2. Paul
      December 22nd, 2006 | 12:52 am

      Interesting, Steve.

      This is the first time I have seen these and really have no feel for the accuracy of the projections. I wonder if there is a track record from last year.

      What about comparing projections for 2006 with actual results? Is that data available?

    3. brockdc
      December 22nd, 2006 | 1:37 am

      Wow. Unit and Pavano with a combined 350+ IP? Someone pinch me; I must be dreaming.

    4. December 22nd, 2006 | 2:00 am

      I disagree with the lowball on homers for A-Rod, Giambi, and Matsui as a matter of fact. I also believe A-Rod will hit around 40 homers. Giambi hit 37 home runs last season, and 32 the year before. In fact, every season that he’s been even half-healthy he’s put up 32 or more. Matsui hit 31 two years ago, and 23 the following year. His pace last season was about 25 home runs for a full 162. If he’s healthy this season, I find it virtually impossible that he’d top out at 18. That’s silly. 18 homers for Matsui and 21 for Phelps is just dumb.

    5. December 22nd, 2006 | 2:03 am

      I looked at it one more time. It seems the Matsui homers came from a projection of 133 games. That’s the problem. The guy didn’t miss a game for 10 years and broke his wrist last season. The data is skewed to figure 110 missed games last season due to a fluke injury. I expect he’ll play 150+ this year and hit 25-30 homers.

    6. baileywalk
      December 22nd, 2006 | 3:05 am

      Wow, let’s just be honest… these numbers are bullshit! Some of them are so grossly ludicrous it’s a joke.

      Giambi only hitting 27 home runs?

      Josh Phelps going .279/.338/.487 with 21 home runs and 72 RBI?

      Melky hitting 18 home runs and driving in 92?

      Bronson Sardinha driving in 73 runs?

      The pitching is the worst, though:

      He has Mussina basically falling apart: less than 200 IP, more hits per inning, and his strikeouts plummeting.

      He also has Randy Johnson pitching like it’s 2004, and has Hughes not striking anyone out (when he’s a strikeout machine).

      He has Pettitte, Wang and Cox getting murdered.

      And apparently he’s never seen Tyler Clippard’s strikeout numbers.

      The numbers for the pitchers are so inaccurate it’s insane. They seem totally random since they’re so outside their averages.

    7. Chewbacca
      December 22nd, 2006 | 3:18 am

      The best is Sal Fasano. We’d be lucky if we got more than 1 home run, nevermind 11. And Sal Fasano shouldnt be in the major leagues, nevermind playing 75 games. Though, the only one stupid enough to play a Sal Fasano in that many games is Joe.

      ~~~Does anyone know if Aaron Small is a free agent. It says on Wikipedia that the Smallini is a minor league free agent. I remember he cleared waivers and was sent down to AAA.

    8. elbambino
      December 22nd, 2006 | 3:51 am

      Over at Replacement Level Yankees SG posted his 2007 projections using CHONE.
      What got my attention was that it also projected the Big Unit doing really well next year and Philip Hughes projected as our 2nd best starter.

      Here’s the link: http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/12/2007-yankee-projections-chone.html

    9. redbug
      December 22nd, 2006 | 7:25 am

      Yes, Aaron Small is a free agent. I heard him interviewd not too long ago. No takers as of then.

    10. December 22nd, 2006 | 8:40 am

      He has Pettitte, Wang and Cox getting murdered.
      =======
      Acutally, I think the projection for Pettitte is pretty accurate, and really, I expected his ERA to be worse than that–the other numbers (IP, HR, etc) seem to be on par with his career and making a jump from the NL to the AL East.

    11. Steve Lombardi
      December 22nd, 2006 | 8:42 am

      ~~~Dan projects A-Rod to hit 32 homers, while Phelps will only hit 21 homers, a difference of 11 homers.~~~

      Yikes, it was late. I must have been looking at the wrong line.

    12. Steve Lombardi
      December 22nd, 2006 | 8:51 am

      ~~~What about comparing projections for 2006 with actual results? Is that data available?~~~

      See: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_new_york_yankees/

    13. baileywalk
      December 22nd, 2006 | 11:10 am

      Only once in Andy’s career has he ever made 30 starts and not thrown 200 innings. He’s gone over 200 innings eight times in his career.

      Why does a guy as economical as Wang suddenly not throw 200 innings again?

      Why does J.B. Cox’s brilliant AA, A and college numbers translate into a hideous 4.71 ERA, more hits than innings pitched, and a 26/34 BB/K? This year in AA Cox had a 1.75 ERA, gave up only 54 hits in 77 innings, and had a 24/60 BB/K. They only hit .196 off of him, and lefties hit .110.

      So how does consistently dominating numbers translate into getting whacked in the majors? If this is simply based on data, and not opinion, it doesn’t make any sense.

    14. DSzymborski
      December 22nd, 2006 | 3:57 pm

      Offense was way down in the minors this year – the Eastern League’s ERA was safely below 4 this year. Translations from AA for relievers are very harsh and there’s no way Cox can keep a .239 BABIP as he goes up the ladder. Honestly, the Yankees kept him in AA too long.

      What about comparing projections for 2006 with actual results? Is that data available?

      Chone Smith evaluated 2006 projections in his blog at http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/. To sum up, the correlations he got among players with 500 at-bats or 100 innings pitched are:

      Hitters
      PECOTA .736 (!)
      Shandler .702
      BIS/James .685
      ZiPS .684
      Chone .677
      Marcel .664

      Pitchers
      ZiPS .459
      PECOTA .451
      BIS/James .445
      Marcel .432
      Chone .424
      Shandler .423
      Prior YearFIP .370
      Prior Year .290

    15. December 22nd, 2006 | 6:37 pm

      ^ does that mean Pecota is the best system for projecting hitters, while Zips is the best with pitchers?

      i cant the Pectoa 2007 projections anywhere. are they out yet? if so, does anyone have the link?

    16. December 23rd, 2006 | 10:50 pm

      Ok, on my blog, I just compared the ZiPS projections for 2006 to their actual 2006 numbers

      http://jeteupthemiddle.blogspot.com/

      It is just some observations. I don’t really know what to say about it as a whole, but there are the numbers laid out for you.

      Well, the hitters anyway.

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