• RLYW On A-Rod’s Clutchness

    Posted by on January 23rd, 2007 · Comments (14)

    Today, SG over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog looks at Alex Rodriguez and His Clutchness (or Lack Thereof).

    I would love to see the Rodriguez Play by Play results By Deficit broken down by season – as I think 2005 makes 2006 look more like 2004 when you look at all the data (for the the three years) as a whole. But, I’m also just guessing that now.

    Otherwise, it’s a nice little study here by SG.

    Comments on RLYW On A-Rod’s Clutchness

    1. antone
      January 23rd, 2007 | 1:12 pm

      Steve, those stats are bogus, they do not reflect the truth. I ran the same comparison at the end of this season for 2006 only, tied or trailing by 3 runs or less, using that site you gave us for batting splits. This is the line I got for AROD when the score is tied or the Yankees are trailing by 1, 2, or 3 runs.

      Avg: .227 HR: 15 RBI: 53 BB: 45 K: 78 IBB: 1 GIDP: 11 2B: 6 H: 66 AB: 291

      The first thing people will say is sample size: well its 291 ABs so thats pretty significant.

      Also, most of this “damage” was done with the score tied, 150 AB .227 Avg 10 HR 30 RBI 26 BB 43 K

      These numbers clearly paint why Yankees fans are so frustrated with AROD.

      The link is here you can double check it if you’d like:
      http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/BatterSplits.py?StartDate=04%2F01%2F2006&EndDate=10%2F06%2F2006&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=1274&BatterType=1

    2. January 23rd, 2007 | 1:41 pm

      Thanks antone.

      Boy, even just the overall totals scream out, huh?

      Leading OPS 1.083
      Trailing OPS .795

    3. baileywalk
      January 23rd, 2007 | 1:44 pm

      Don’t show these numbers to the A-Rod supporters on here. You’ll hear about how you “hate” A-Rod, that you “don’t know what you’re talking about,” and that you’re generally lower than a man who eats babies and that A-Rod is a misunderstood genius who would be curing AIDS if he wasn’t hitting a baseball for the Yankees.

    4. rbj
      January 23rd, 2007 | 1:51 pm

      By themselves, the numbers don’t tell me too much. How are they in comparison to Jeter or Giambi or Ortiz? In other words, is A-Rod’s performance typical of major leaguers — maybe everyone is a bit down from their average when the score is close – perhaps they’re facing good pitchers then – and feasting on bad pitching.

    5. Garcia
      January 23rd, 2007 | 2:05 pm

      rbj, I’ve run those numbers with players like Manny and Ortiz, believe you me….ARod is not at their level. Let’s just leave it at that. He’s our 3rd baseman and let’s just hope for the best.

    6. January 23rd, 2007 | 2:40 pm

      ~~~A-Rod is a misunderstood genius who would be curing AIDS if he wasn’t hitting a baseball for the Yankees~~~

      Sorta like Mussina, right?

      Just kidding!

    7. Raf
      January 23rd, 2007 | 2:57 pm

      Has anyone taken a look at the comments page associated with the entry posted above?

    8. baileywalk
      January 23rd, 2007 | 3:21 pm

      Ah, touche, Steve.

      We all have our players to defend to the death.

    9. January 23rd, 2007 | 3:27 pm

      that’s cool ‘tho baileywalk

      Raf – which comment in particular?

    10. Raf
      January 23rd, 2007 | 3:52 pm

      Among others “In ’06 his close/late numbers were great. 99 PA’s, .325/.434/.434. I think that bolsters my point that there is just so much fluctuation when it comes to situational numbers like this.”

      or

      “his “clutch” numbers were down in 2006 b/c all of his numbers were down.

      the point is that this myth about Alex started way before this season, and the numbers show that it was unfair up to that point.

      2006 was the first time Alex’s performance somewhat reflected what people had been saying about him and they all jumped up and said “i told you so”, when it’s possible he just had a down year.”

      among others…

      But if SG’s numbers are wrong, I’d like to reserve judgement. Some of the numbers don’t add up (PA’s & AB’s to name a couple)

    11. SG
      January 23rd, 2007 | 5:56 pm

      Antone, thanks for finding the bug in my numbers. There was a problem with some of my formulas for deficits. I re-calculated the numbers and they match what you found for 2006. I’ll repost them now.

    12. Raf
      January 23rd, 2007 | 6:06 pm

      Were the #’s wrong for 2006, or for 2004-2006?

    13. SG
      January 23rd, 2007 | 6:17 pm

      Raf, they were wrong for all three seasons. I should have made sure they balanced out before posting them, but they’re ok now.

    14. January 24th, 2007 | 3:06 am

      i just did a quick study of some clutch stats. just going by leading and trailing stats (04-06), among Arod, DJ, Beltre (being a fairly avg 3b) and Ortiz.

      The things i learned -

      - Arod is the only guy among these 4 to hit worse (than his overall OPS) when trailing. the other 3 hit better when trailing.

      - Ortiz has the highest trailing OPS, 1.023. (overall OPS of 1.011)

      - When trailing, Jeter has the highest increase from his overall OPS (+42 or .896) vs .854 overall OPS.

      - Arod’s trailing OPS is actually higher than DJ, at .905. But this is well below his overall OPS, which is 40 points higher, .945.

      This certainly explains why Arod is seen as ‘unclutch,’ while DJ is seen as the opposite.

      For more details:
      http://yankeesetc.blogspot.com/2007/01/is-arod-clutch.html

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