On Monday, I suggested that the Yankees and Red Sox bullpens this year would probably add the same value to their teams this season. Since I took some heat for that comment, I decided to look deeper into the numbers.
I decided to use Ron Shandler’s projected Base Performance Value (BPV) marks to assign some value on each member of the pens for 2007. BPV aims to reflect, in one number, some fundamental skills used to evaluate a pitcher’s performance: K/BB ratio, K/9 IP, HR/9 IP and a pitcher’s ability to prevent hits. For relief pitchers, a BPV around 75 is good stuff and anything close to 100 is great.
Here are the numbers:
Hideki Okajima is anyone’s guess now. I suppose, at the worst, he could match Mike Myers’ BPV projection. Maybe he could rate as high as 75 in ’07? More than likely, it will be somewhere in between.
I was surprised to see the BPV projection for Proctor. Last year, his actual BPV was 80. This was 51 in the first-half of 2006 and 121 (!) in the second-half of the season. That projected mark of 57 may turn out to be very low.
In any event, using the BPV projections tells me that I was wrong earlier this week. The Yankees ’07 pen has four guys with the potential to be very good and two others who should be acceptable arms. The Red Sox ’07 pen has two guys who should be acceptable and four others (being kind and including Okajima here) who might be average at best. In a nutshell, the Yankees pen has a potential ceiling that the Red Sox pen can’t even hope to touch at this point – at least on paper.