From The Post -
After spending the winter in Phoenix working out with fitness guru Brett Fischer to reinvent his oft-injured body, Pavano takes the hill today for the first time since suffering a broken rib in an auto accident last August.
However, Pavano said, “I know there is a lot of anticipation. I am willing to talk, but the Yankees want to do a conference call next week.
“I just want to put this [garbage] behind me and talk about performance,” said Pavano, who hasn’t pitched in a big league game since June of 2005 when a right shoulder injury that didn’t require surgery shut him down. He missed all of last season with back, elbow and rib problems. “I am sure you are tired of asking about car accidents and broken ribs.”
It’s interesting that this story is running today – because just last night I started to write something about Pavano here, and, I canned it because I did not want it to seem like I was trying to make news (by bringing up Pavano) on a day when there was no need to talk about a particular player. (Boy, I wish now that I saved it as a draft instead of just deleting it.)
The upshot of what I started to write last night was around what was a reasonable expectation for a season’s innings pitched total from Pavano – based on his big league career to date.
Getting more than 137 big league IP from Carl Pavano in a season is a rare thing. Sure, he posted 200+ IP in 2003 and 2004. However, it’s a much safer bet to expect less than 140 IP (in a season) from the Duke of the D.L, the Rajah of Rehab, the Prince of the Paycheck-Cashers, or whatever you want to call him.
Based on what we’ve seen from Pavano, I would say there’s a 80% probability that he fails to make more than 20 starts in 2007 – even if he’s doing fine now and looks O.K. in the spring. (He’s only had 20+ starts in a season 4 times in his 9 year career.)
The Yankees should not allow themselves to get any false hope around Pavano. This is a “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” situation. Don’t be fooled Cash, this one, for sure, will be on you.