Chasing Matsuzaka
Posted by Steve L. on May 4th, 2007 · Comments (13)
Daisuke Matsuzaka’s ERA this AM: 5.45
Kei Igawa’s ERA this AM: 6.08
If Igawa can throw 5 scoreless innings tonight, his ERA will be 5.11 – right there with Matsuzaka’s ERA.
Will it happen? Probably not. But, at the least, the fact that Igawa is that close speaks somewhat to the quality of Matsuzaka’s recent starts for the Red Sox.
In his last 31 innings, Daisuke Matsuzaka has allowed 22 earned runs – that’s an ERA of 6.38…for those scoring at home. Boston management and fans don’t seem worried about Matsuzaka’s recent struggles.
If Daisuke was on the Yankees, and the team paid $103 million to get him, I would be worried – at least a bit – at this point.
It will be interesting to see how Igawa pitches against Seattle tonight. Matsuzaka pitched well against them and it is the first time that they are pitching against the same lineup…
Define “well.” He’s given up 10 runs over 12 innings against them.
He went 7, giving up three the first time. And went 5 and gave up seven runs last night.
In fairness, he melted down in the first inning of that second game — three walks and a HBP. And slick-fielding shortstop Lugo had three errors in the game — all of which caused runs to score.
Sox fans might not be worried — and I’m sure there’s an adjustment period — but they are lucky right now that Schilling and Beckett are pitching so well.
For the money and hype given to Matsuzaka, I’m really not impressed. Am I wrong?
But also:
Matsuzaka:
38.0 IP in 6 games
39 K (9.2 K/9 IP)
15 BB (3.6 BB/9 IP)
1.32 WHIP
.306 BABIP
Igawa
26.7 IP in 5 games
19 K (6.2 K/9)
13 BB (4.2 BB/9)
1.46 WHIP
.256 BABIP
ERA seems to be cherry-picking a bit there. The peripherals, especially BABIP, shows me that Matsuzaka will finish the season with a significantly better ERA than Igawa.
Oh, and in addition, Slugging Percentage Against:
Matsuzaka: .331
Igawa: .448
So it’s not as if Matsuzaka is giving up booming doubles and that’s driving his BABIP up. It’s hits that happen to be falling in at the wrong time. Over the rest of the season, that will regress to mean, while Igawa, with a low BABIP and a high slugging against, will see his ERA go up, not down.
Also giving Matsuzaka value is his 6.3 IP/start, versus 5.3 IP/start for Igawa. The gigantic difference between the two will become more clear in the next few months.
Excellent points mehmattski.
I’m not saying tha Iggy and Dice-K are the same in value. I’m just saying that it’s not like comparing Koufax to LaPoint either.
Again, I think the question here isn’t who’s better (that’s rather clear), but rather, Is Mats as good as the money and hype thrust upon him? Probably not, but he looks to be an innings horse; I’d still love for the Yanks to have him, the astronomical posting fee notwithstanding.
Beat me to it, Steve. Dang it.
Right now Dice-K is obviously not worth the money, down the line who knows? It does seem like he has one inning in each game where he just blows up and loses his control and gives up 3-4 runs. He is clearly hittable though, more like a Mussina type than a Pedro type. He doesn’t scare me at all.
If Mats is like Mussina was at Mats’ age, the Sox have a terrific pitcher for the next ten years. Mussina had ace stuff until 2004, when his elbow injuries sapped his fastball.
Dice-K throws only about 50% fastballs. That is alot of breaking pitches to put on an arm. In Japan he only pitched one time a week, and had 2 extra days of rest each time he pitched. I bet he is just in an adjustment phase right now, where he is having a bit of a dead arm period. He’ll adjust, but I’ll be surpised if his ERA is under 4.25 this year. Dice-K also shows that he loses focus pretty easy, and start walking the ball park. It don’t matter how nasty your shit is if you don’t have to swing at it.
Torre’s over cautious approach to pitchers will probably help Igawa, as he makes the same adjustments as Dice-K.
“Interesting” wasn’t the word for how Igawa pitched against Seattle.
Kei Igawa’s ERA this PM: 7.63
I don’t think Matsuzaka is “as advertised” but he certainly has better stuff than Igawa.