Robinson Cano’s Problem This Season
Here’s Robby Cano, this season, to date, in terms of how he bats in day games and night games:
That’s a heckuva story there, no?
In night games, this season, Cano bats as we expect him to – a .300 hitter with some decent pop (for a middle infielder). But, in day games, Cano hits like he was a pitcher.
This tells me one of two things: Either Cano is out too late before day games or he needs glasses that will help him see the ball better during day games. (Maybe it’s both – but, it’s probably more one than the other.)
Perhaps Cano should ask Antonio Belize for a sip of his Red Bull before day games?
I’m not saying that Cano is a bad kid. Stories tell us otherwise. But, maybe he’s one of Posada’s going through the motions guys – at least, in day games?
Where are those greenies when you need them this season?
BA-OBP-SLG
2006
D: .388 .411 .565
N: .317 .339 .503
2005
D: .283 .324 .434
N: .303 .318 .469
2007 could be one of those random fluky things.
I’d like to know if Robbie is hitting the ball well in day games and they’re just finding gloves, or is he popping up to the infield, striking out a lot & hitting weak grounders.
I enjoy the blog – really, I do. But you’re reading way too much into random statistics. Basic probability tells us there will be players who have, say, an OPS on Wednesdays that is 400 points less than the average of his other 6 days of the week. Clearly that’s something about Wednesdays that are bad for him, right? No, of course not.
How about May for ARod? He must have been resting every night in April and June and partying all through May…
Things are just random. There will always be extreme splits. As Raf points out, this was not the case in the past, and as analysts, one of the biggest things we can look for is correlations from year to year (this is how DIPS theory gained such prominence – there was no correlation in pitchers’ batting average on balls in play from year to year).
You can find extreme splits like this anywhere – there are just not enough AB in the season to make everything even out and regress to the player’s true ability. Look at any longtime player’s career stats, and all the splits will be very similar. But look at a single season and you’re doomed to be fooled by stuff like this.
Just another example – I picked Posada because you mentioned him in your post:
.985 OPS on grass, .530 on turf. – clearly he should never be playing on turf, right?
~~~I’d like to know if Robbie is hitting the ball well in day games and they’re just finding gloves, or is he popping up to the infield, striking out a lot & hitting weak grounders.~~~
His daytime BA on balls in play is .205 – and it’s .363 at night.
He has 2 BB and 19 Ks in 111 day-time PA.
He has 12 BB and 31 Ks in 207 night-time PA.
So, he’s whiffing more, slight, in day games. And, his batted balls are turned into out more easily in day games.
If Melky is Cano’s running partner at least they likely stop partying at different times.
Melky’s day games 926 OPS
Melky’s night games 556 OPS
Maybe there’s something else you can think of to trash Cano with.
I know, you’re just mentioning the stats. No innuendo intended.
~~~Things are just random. There will always be extreme splits.~~~
Yeah, you’re right. Small sample size, luck, stuff like that. It’s just a coincidence that Cano sucks during the day and bats like a productive player at night. Just a fluke. It’s as random as flipping a coin.
Geez, I wonder why they even bother keeping stats at all?
Steve, do you not believe at all in the concept of statistical noise or small sample size?
I’m not trying to be a jerk here, and I really don’t know what to make of the night/day disparity. It could be small sample size or it very well could be related to a day/night issue for Cano.
~~~If Melky is Cano’s running partner at least they likely stop partying at different times.~~~
FWIW, Melky’s got one full season under his belt, compare to two for Cano – and, no All-Star team’s made, compared to the one’s for Cano.
Maybe he can’t “afford” to party like Cano – if that’s what Cano is doing.
~~~Steve, do you not believe at all in the concept of statistical noise or small sample size?~~~
Sure I do. If a guy goes 2 for 5, I know not to put him in the HOF based on one game. But, I also know that 111 PA is not small. And, I know that the difference between .179 and .311 is huge.
There’s enough here, for me, to start to question whether there’s a cause for this effect.
You said it, not me.
Is it not a coincidence that Posada sucks on turf? Is it not random that ARod was merely average in May?
Funny you mention coin flippin, because here’s my favorite analogy:
Let’s have a coin flipping contest. We want to find the guy who can get heads most often.
We take 32 guys and have them flip a coin 5 times. Statistically speaking, one of them is going to get heads all 5 times. Clearly he’s the best at flipping coins, right?
Saying a player is better at night based on such a small sample size is a HUGE statement.
Just look at random players and you’ll see that extreme splits are very common. Craig Biggio was the 3rd player I looked at – he’s much better at night this year. But he was much better during the day last year.
You will see, if you were to run some regression from year to year, that there is no correlation from one year’s day/night split to future years. This has no predictive value. On the other hand, something like a batter’s split vs. RHP and LHP WILL have a positive correlation from year to year – that’s how we know the effect is “for real”.
It is 99.9% a coincidence that he has sucked during the day. There is a tiny, tiny chance that, like you say, he is doing something this year which caused this. But this is so unlikely it’s not worth mentioning.
I don’t know how to make it any clearer without going into very detailed statistical theory. You take any player, and I think you’ll agree that there will be SOME difference between their day/night stats. You take 400+ hitters, and that difference is going to vary. Some are going to have a large difference, and some are going to have a small difference. You’ve stumbled upon one of the players that randomly has a large difference. It means nothing.
~~~It is 99.9% a coincidence that he has sucked during the day.~~~
But, if all stats are random, should it not be a 50% chance that it’s a coincidence?
Ok, so we’ve found where we disagree: 111 PA IS small. You can find streaks of 111 consecutive PA for any player where they’ve sucked.
How about this:
5/27/2001 to 6/24/2001:
Jeter went .208/.286/.307 for an OPS of .593.
This was in 110 plate appearances.
How many more examples will I have to give to satisfy you?
And please don’t take my comments the wrong way – I’m not trying to attack you or anything. Like I said, I enjoy the blog. But I think the more people that understand the part that statistics play, and can tell when they’re meaningful and when they’re not, the better.
Forget all the stats. I’m not a stat guy but i love reading about them. Ask yourself this.
2 outs, bottom of the seveth, runners on second and third and down by one.
Do you want the 2007 Cano out there batting?
Not me. I don’t remember any one of his hits – all I remember is the garbage he swings at and the garbage he strikes out on.
Whether he parties or not, I don’t care. He just flat out is not good this year.
Tell me different.
“But, if all stats are random, should it not be a 50% chance that it’s a coincidence?”
Not at all. The math gets complicated (and admittedly I’m not a statistician) but essentially it boils down to this:
Let’s keep it simple and talk about batting average. , and let’s talk about a random set of 100 AB. We want to know what the chances of a .265 hitter (26.5% chance of getting a hit) getting 18 or less hits (the .179 BA).
I just wrote a little program to compute this because I’m not nearly good enough with the statistical formulas, and found this:
I gave him 100 AB, and a 26.5% chance of getting a hit in each AB. I repeated 1 million times.
He got 18 or fewer hits 31,524 times, or 3.2% of the time. Pretty low, right? Not when you consider that there are over 400 hitters. One out of every 30 or so is going to have a 100 AB streak this bad.
So yes – given an individual player, it’s rare that he does this bad. But odds are that there are going to be about 14 hitters in the league that are like this – you just found one of them.
There’s enough here, for me, to start to question whether there’s a cause for this effect.
===============
But there is also enough to suspect otherwise;
Career
D: .299 .328 .448 (469 PA)
N: .310 .335 .479 (908 PA)
Interesting as to the number of night games that are played; near double the day games… Has it always been that way? Or is this a development that has appeared within the last 10-20 years?
~So, he’s whiffing more, slight, in day games. And, his batted balls are turned into out more easily in day games.~
Thanks. I don’t think it has anything to do with partying, just that this year he’s not doing well in day games. Maybe he’s just not picking up the ball and recognizing the pitch as well (while his strike out rates are about the same, his BB rate in night games is much higher.)
It’s interesting that most of the good/bad points of was watching are on display here
1. good: the interest in the stat side of the game, bringing to your reader’s attention all the myriad details that the game offers. Many times I’ve seen you (Steve) do a lot of work and you deserve a lot of credit for what you do.
2 bad: the snide partying put down on Cano. Most of us here are Yankee fans Steve and we don’t appreciate the sneering putdowns, the accusations of a team packing it in when you have nothing NOTHING to back up those statements with. And don’t pretend that Jorge’s words the other day had anything to do with packing it in, which is what you put forth periodically with “apathy” etc. Underperformance and focus are issues, giving up is not.
3. worse: when someone offers up a competing analysis, you go instantly defensive and hostile, so much so you need to be reassured that no slight is intended and that it’s coming from a friendly source.
4. Steve, you have one of the best Yankee blogs going. Remember who your audience is and be prepared to debate. You are always too quick to take things the wrong way and toss in that sarcastic barb “Geez, I wonder why they even bother keeping stats at all?” You’re lucky to have someone as obviously smart as bobo to come on and debate you on your stat presentations.
Be like me. Save your cynicism for Lil’ Papi and the Roid SAWKS. Remember Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment:”Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.” Thou shalt not speak ill of a Yankee. I mean, except for Farnsworth and Mike Myers and, let’s see, there’s Bruney and his walks, Hot and Cold Abreu and ah…
Okay, really.
How long before the rest of you begin to say the magic words:
“Robbie Cano is just not that great.”
I’ll speak ill of a Yankee if it’s the truth.
Farnsworth. Myers. Villone. Abreu. Damon. Giambi. CANO.
Please, someone tell me that Cano is NOT terrible this year. I’m begging someone to change my mind.
I do not want him at the plate when it matters.