• July 27th @ The Orioles

    Posted by on July 27th, 2007 · Comments (10)

    So, is Jeremy Guthrie a power pitcher? Probably not – but, he is a guy who does pound the strikezone.

    You know, when you’re in a chase for an October play-off slot, and there’s just 60 games left to the season, and your starting pitcher (in this case, Andy Pettitte) gets you to the 8th inning where you’re just down by a run, you have to find a way to win that game.

    Think about it, down by one, in the 8th, and the Yankees have their 3-4-5 hitters due up…and nothing. Then, in the bottom of the 8th, first batter up, boom, homerun – and now it’s a two-run hole heading into the ninth.

    The Yankees are now 4-40 this season when they start the 8th inning of a game where they are behind in the score. This does not mean they are a terrible team – few teams have more than a half-dozen wins in a season in these situations. But, what it does mean is that the Yankees are not an above average “late comeback” team. And, one would think, given the fact that they throw names out there like Damon, Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod, Matsui, Posada, etc., that they would be the leaders of the pack in terms of coming back late in the game when down by one or two runs. Not so – especially tonight.

    The Yankees still have an excellent chance to take the next two games in this series – based on the pitching match-ups. But, if they blow the next two games, and the Indians win the next two, then you can kiss the Wildcard hopes away in a hurry and use August and September to start planning for next year.

    Comments on July 27th @ The Orioles

    1. RICH
      July 28th, 2007 | 6:57 am

      What is the average winning % experience of a “late comeback team” in those situations? I thought 9% was very good. I’m mistaken again.

      Not that it takes away from your argument that they can’t come back late in a game, I’m curious what your expectations are for that stat for this team. 8 of 44? 9 of 44? Not being in the situation 44 times to begin with by this time of year?

    2. RICH
      July 28th, 2007 | 8:20 am

      On a different matter: At least the Yanks avoided the Hillenbrand bullet, he signed with the Padres’ farm system.

    3. July 28th, 2007 | 8:33 am

      ~~~I’m curious what your expectations are for that stat for this team. ~~~

      Considering the names, and the payroll, of the hitters, I would have said around 8 or 9.

    4. antone
      July 28th, 2007 | 9:06 am

      Regardless of any stats, I don’t have great confidence in this team to come from behind late in the game. Sometimes you can almost tell early on in the game which games they are going to lose.

      That being said…the Yanks need to take 3 of 4 and 2 of 3 (25-11) every series against the BAL, TOR, TB, etc of the world and then even if they “split” the 23 (11 -12) games they have left with DET, BOS, CLE, SEA, LAA then they would have 91 wins which would at least give them a chance at the wild card. That would be 36 – 23 overall with a .610 winning %. To win more games, they would probably have to do more damage against DET, BOS, CLE, SEA, and LAA.

    5. RICH
      July 28th, 2007 | 9:32 am

      ~Considering the names, and the payroll, of the hitters, I would have said around 8 or 9.~

      What about any of the games the Yanks have overcome deficits in but they do it earlier than the 8th? Those games don’t count in what you were looking at.

      I’ll go through the sked to see how many games the Yanks have overcome a 3 run (to choose an arbitrary number)deficit and held on to win the game. There shouldn’t be too many of them but whether the number is higher or lower than the 4 of 44 they’ve done in your research maybe it’ll show if there’s a failure to win early, win late, or not win at all once they’re behind.

      If you think I should look at a number other than 3 runs behind let me know.
      I’ll try to get back with the results today.

    6. July 28th, 2007 | 9:37 am

      FWIW, some stats on the ’07 Yanks to date:

      Comeback Wins: 24, Largest Comeback: 5
      Blown Leads: 27, Largest Blown Lead: 5
      Walk-off Wins: 4
      Walk-off Losses: 4

    7. July 28th, 2007 | 9:38 am

      Here’s the Red Sox:

      Comeback Wins: 25, Largest Comeback: 5
      Blown Leads: 20, Largest Blown Lead: 4
      Walk-off Wins: 1
      Walk-off Losses: 3

      And, here’s the Angels:

      Comeback Wins: 23, Largest Comeback: 5
      Blown Leads: 19, Largest Blown Lead: 4
      Walk-off Wins: 7
      Walk-off Losses: 1

      And, here’s the Indians:

      Comeback Wins: 28, Largest Comeback: 4
      Blown Leads: 19, Largest Blown Lead: 4
      Walk-off Wins: 7
      Walk-off Losses: 6

    8. baileywalk
      July 28th, 2007 | 11:19 am

      The Yankee offense wasn’t totally asleep last night — they just didn’t get hits when men were on. The situation that sticks in my mind was Jeter being up with second and third with one out and striking out.

      Winnable games, which that was, are the hardest to swallow.

      It’s almost like all those people who said Pettitte was a product of run support have put a curse on the guy. He simply cannot get his team to win him a game. He goes out there and gives everything he has, usually battling, and they don’t pick him up. You have to wonder if Clemens is gone (which is a given), the Yankees don’t make the playoffs, and the Astros make him a decent deal for next year, if he doesn’t decline his option for next year and leave.

    9. RICH
      July 28th, 2007 | 11:45 am

      Are the blown leads you’ve noted all games that the respective teams lost or are they blown leads regardless of final outcome?

      For instance, a team blows a lead of any kind but wins the game later on? Or blows multiple leads.

      I find a blown lead, even if the Yanks score 1 run in the 1st on the road only to lose the lead, even temporarily, the most frustrating. I get irrational thinking any pitcher should hold a lead. I know it’s wrong.

    10. July 29th, 2007 | 7:37 am

      Rich, it’s from B-R, PI. I’m pretty sure that it’s the number of times they were leading to start an inning and then ended the inning either tied or behind.

    Leave a reply

    You must be logged in to post a comment.