Mea Culpa
On the night of June 28, 2007, I wrote:
It’s just about the end of June and the Yankees are double-digits back of first place and near double-digits back in the Wildcard chase.
It’s not happening. Not this year. I wish this were not true. But, it’s not happening.
Since that time, the Boston Red Sox have gone 22-18 while the New York Yankees have gone 29-12. And, the Yankees are now just 4 games behind the Red Sox.
What can I say? To all the Yankees fans out there, who knew for a fact, back on June 28th, that the Yankees were going to play .707 baseball over their next 40 games while the Red Sox were going to play .550 baseball in their next 41 contests, well, you were smarter than me.
For the record, I’m thrilled to be wrong on this one – and glad that you were right, if you’re one of those fans who saw this coming. And, if you’re one who predicted this, please, tell me your secret. It’s an amazing gift that you have there. I’d like to know more about it.
I think you’re missing the overall point here, Steve. No one is gloating and saying that they predicted this would happen.
My point in linking back to your old post is that it was just as foolish to predict that it’s over at that point as it was to predict that the Yanks would go on a tear and the Sox would play flatly.
We’re not saying “haha! you’re wrong!” We’re saying “dude, don’t say silly shit in June.”
Steve, I appreciate the site and think you offer a lot of great reading material for me to while away the endless hours between games, but I think what was really irksome was (for me) the feeling that you were kicking a team while it was down, pulling the curtains on the year very early on, and calling it “the worst Yankees team in 15 years” (!!!), which was way way way too harsh and premature. Even though the Yankees were playing poorly, they were losing a lot of close games and had most of their lineup underperforming their projections. I didn’t expect them to turn it around this dramatically, but thought they’d at least contend for a wild card — the lineup is simply too talented, and though the pitching staff has many problems, I’d take it over the Mariners’ staff any day. But this is a fortuitous turn of events, to be sure.
My secret is patience.
You want to be condescending by asking people what their secret is to predicting this current Yankees hot streak, but what is your secret to predicting – your doom and gloom predictions? How did you know that it was over so early?
It does take two to tango here, Steve.
In all honesty, the only thing I really believed in as far as this current Yankee team is concerned is that they will not go down like this. I kept believing that and still do, I always felt there was/is a lot of fight on this team and it starts from the head. I never stopped believing in Torre. For me, he is the best person for the job because he doesn’t panic. Torre can definitely do a lot of things better, but there is no one else I would want running the Yanks other than Torre.
If they failed, then they just weren’t that deserving. I thought it was pretty simple logic and help me not go too nutty with this team.
Let’s go Yanks!!!!
Play today, win today!!!!
Sporting Brews has it right, I don’t think people are gloating.
I realize you have to make “declarations” on the blog or else it becomes boring but you’re such a baseball fan you should realize it’s a long, long season and there’s time for good and bad things to happen. It’s not like this team hasn’t had terrible starts the last 10 years.
It’s like when John Sterling says “if the Jays score 2 more runs to go ahead by 3 the game will be over.” What team has he been announcing for? He acts as if this team has never overcome a deficit.
4 games behind with only 7 weeks left is still no picnic but it’s attainable. So if the lead falls to 6 games quickly don’t overreact to that either. Enjoy the season!
~~And, if you’re one who predicted this, please, tell me your secret.~~
There is no secret. In the Torre Era, the Yanks have had a ~40 game period of ~.700 baseball every season. It wasn’t a stretch to think that the 2007 team would have a .700 run at some point. And it wasn’t a stretch to think that the Sox – who many picked to finish 3rd – would have a .550 stretch at some point. There’s a reason why the season is 162 games long.
I feel bad for the fans who gave up two months ago. They missed a fun summer of baseball.
I gave up on the team a while ago — just for sanity’s sake. Still followed them and watched them, just enjoyed the games as games and not as a pennant chase.
Am I wrong, or is this post not just dripping with sarcasm?
At every turn, you were all over the Yankees and how they weren’t going to turn it around. When they played well, you didn’t give us a “the Yanks have to ___ if the Red sox go ____” posts, but then you gave us one if they hit the skids for a little while (like that west coast NL road trip.)
Here’s the secret:
- You needed to realize that the Red Sox weren’t as good as they were playing. They were 20 games over .500 through the first 50 games or so. That’s absurd
- You also needed to realize that the Yankees weren’t as bad as they were playing. They’re lousy record was a function of the combination of 3 big bats (Cano, Abreu, Damon and to a lesser extent Melky) all hitting slumps at the same time, injuries to Wang, Mussina, Giambi and Matsui, a weird month for Mariano Rivera (who has been vintage since May 1st), and to top it off, a backup catcher who had no business being in the major leagues.
Add all these up and you get a team 14 games out in June. Regress to the mean and we’re 4 games out before mid-August.
I guess the secret is to look at things more critically and without (or with less) bias (as for most of the year your bias seemed to be that this team was screwed).
Run differentials.
On June 28th- +58, expect record: 6 losses worse than actual.
Red Sox 2 losses better than expected.
A correction was coming.
Sigh. Look, Steve, you don’t have to be sarcastic. Nobody has a crystal ball here. But c’mon, did you really think the Yankees were going to be THAT bad this year and the Red Sox were going to be THAT good? It didn’t make sense. The Yankees lost no position players from last year (when they won 97 games, if you forgot) and have added Pettitte, Clemens, and now Hughes.
In the first half, a billion Yankee pitchers went down, Abreu and Cano (who are good hitters, obviously) were doing NOTHING, Matsui was out, etc etc etc. Meanwhile, the Red Sox were playing out of their minds.
In my opinion, these Yankees are a .600 team. They’re not a .500 team, and they’re not a .700 team. During the All-Star break (when the Yanks were 43-44), I posted on my blog that the Yankees would probably win 90 games this year. Now I think it’ll be more like 91 or 92. Bottom line is, nothing is done yet. Getting into the playoffs will be tough. While this lineup can score a lot of runs, they really outperform against bad pitching but slip down to about league average against tough pitching in terms of OPS.
By the way, in response to the sarcastic “It’s an amazing gift that you have there. I’d like to know more about it.” I remember you made a post basically calling people out on saying that the Yankees were unlucky in the first half by making a ludicrous post basically saying, “Oh, you’re saying the Yankees Pythagorean W-L says they should have won x more games? Well point out the exact games where they got unlucky. Ha!” If that’s what you truly believe, you need to take a statistics class. People were trying to tell you about their “amazing gift” months ago and you were just laughing at them.
Hey, I hope that all you out there who saw this coming were smart enough to get to Vegas and bet hard on the Yankees…because you’re all rich now, or, will be when the team wins it all. You all did put your money down, right? I mean, hey, based on what many of you are saying here, you knew, all along, that a Yankees comeback and Sox fold-o, was in the making…for those who were smart enough to see it…right?
Is more sarcasm really necessary? From what I’ve read above the only thing anyone “saw” was that the Law of Averages would likely (noticed I said LIKELY) play out. The Yankees weren’t playing to their potential and the Sox were playing over their heads. You gotta figure/hope that things would even out eventually.
For me it has nothing to do with analyzing stats or whatever. It has to do with just being a fan. Like my friend Garcia said, it’s about patience. It’s not about knowing anything special. It’s about putting down the stat book, rooting for your freaking team and believing they can do it. You know that the guys on the field that you’re rooting for will not give up, and you know you have a front office that will do what it can at the trade deadline to make your team better because you’re rooting for the Yankees, not the Orioles.
geez, I’m starting to wonder why you even put your writing out to the public. Why not just write for yourself if you have such contempt for your readers?
As I read through the comments (almost all of which were spot-on), I see a lot of people trying to assure you that they are not gloating, nor that they predicted this run. All of them, and I, felt it was POSSIBLE, and definitly something to hope for, not to give up on. As opposed to you, who thought it was impossible.
You understand the asymmetry there? Impossible = a definite no. Possible = maybe. So no, we didnt go to Vegas, and no one claims a crystal ball.
Why do you have to be such an a** about it? I mean for chrissakes, a touch of humility is in order, given the circumstances, and your readers here are doing nothing but trying to ease the path for you.
Maybe it is embarrasing to set yourself up as an expert, and then to shoot of your mouth foolishly, as if you had no experinece with the ups and downs of a full baseball season. Why not try to act the way you would hope a ballplayer who screws up would act? Take responsiblity, learn from the experinece, and dont lash out at your teammates.
i don’t think people were certain that things would go as they have, but i think people knew the yanks would play better and the red sox a bit worse. My personal opinion, i confess, was that the yankees were most likely out of it unless they turned it around asap and boston slumped. that happened, which was neither likely nor surprising. no shame in having counted them out though, i was definitely trying to adjust my expectations.
i don’t think people were certain that things would go as they have, but i think people knew the yanks would play better and the red sox a bit worse. My personal opinion, i confess, was that the yankees were most likely out of it unless they turned it around asap and boston slumped. that happened, which was neither likely nor surprising. no shame in having counted them out though, i was definitely trying to adjust my expectations.
i don’t think people were certain that things would go as they have, but i think people knew the yanks would play better and the red sox a bit worse. My personal opinion, i confess, was that the yankees were most likely out of it unless they turned it around asap and boston slumped. that happened, which was neither likely nor surprising. no shame in having counted them out though, i was definitely trying to adjust my expectations.