If you look at American League history, since 2002, and the current season win-pace of the Seattle Mariners, it’s not a reach to say that it’s going to take about 94 wins in 2007 to nail down the A.L. Wildcard race.
The Yankees currently have 72 wins on the season – with 31 games left to play. To reach 94 wins this year, the Yankees will need to go 22-9 in their remaining games – which is a winning percentage of .710.
Can the Yankees play .710-baseball in their last 31 games?
It’s going to be a tall order, for sure. But, bottom line, based on this estimate, it says that the Yankees cannot afford to lose more than 10 times between now and the end of the season – and hope to win the Wildcard.
Let the countdown begin. A win tonight means the clock sticks at ten. A loss tonight means one of those bottles of beer on the wall has happened to fall, and there will be only nine bottles of beer left on the wall.
Personally, I think the Yankees will “use up” those remaining ten “allowed” losses by September 20th of this year. But, maybe they’ll show me something and things will be different.