• The Yankees Tragic Number

    Posted by on August 28th, 2007 · Comments (3)

    If you look at American League history, since 2002, and the current season win-pace of the Seattle Mariners, it’s not a reach to say that it’s going to take about 94 wins in 2007 to nail down the A.L. Wildcard race.

    The Yankees currently have 72 wins on the season – with 31 games left to play. To reach 94 wins this year, the Yankees will need to go 22-9 in their remaining games – which is a winning percentage of .710.

    Can the Yankees play .710-baseball in their last 31 games?

    It’s going to be a tall order, for sure. But, bottom line, based on this estimate, it says that the Yankees cannot afford to lose more than 10 times between now and the end of the season – and hope to win the Wildcard.

    Let the countdown begin. A win tonight means the clock sticks at ten. A loss tonight means one of those bottles of beer on the wall has happened to fall, and there will be only nine bottles of beer left on the wall.

    Personally, I think the Yankees will “use up” those remaining ten “allowed” losses by September 20th of this year. But, maybe they’ll show me something and things will be different.

    Comments on The Yankees Tragic Number

    1. rbj
      August 28th, 2007 | 1:28 pm

      Didn’t the Yankees use something like 7 rookie pitchers in April; and that no team that ever started 7 rookies in a season ever went to/won in the post season?

      If so, you have to admire the team for coming back so far, and wonder if April was a bunch of freak injuries — or if it was caused by having a country club pro being the team’s strength & conditioning coach.

    2. August 28th, 2007 | 1:50 pm

      The Yankes used 10 different starting pitchers in their first 30 games – the highest total in major league history over a team’s first 30 games.

      But, that’s just an excuse, at the end of the day. That’s what you get when you count on guys like Pavano and Igawa. And, when run a kid like Chase Wright out there before he’s ready.

      Wang, Hughes, Karstens and Rasner getting hurt were flukes. But, Wang hardly missed time and it’s not Ranser and Karstens were being counted on in the first place.

    3. Raf
      August 28th, 2007 | 2:44 pm

      The Yankes used 10 different starting pitchers in their first 30 games – the highest total in major league history over a team’s first 30 games.
      ====================
      Also, it should be noted that over the course of a season, an eventual “correction” should come. True they used 10 different starters in April, but if the rotation (or staff in general) hasn’t solidified by the end of August…

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