The Hard Cold Math
LyfLines breaks down what the Yankees would need to do to win the A.L. East:
Boston goes 11-4 (.733), they win the East
Boston goes 10-5 (.667), Yanks need to go 16-0 (1.000) to tie.
Boston goes 9-6 (.600), Yanks need to go 15-1 (.938) to tie.
Boston goes 8-7 (.533), Yanks need to go 14-2 (.875) to tie.
Boston goes 7-8 (.467), Yanks need to go 13-3 (.813) to tie.
Boston goes 6-9 (.400), Yanks need to go 12-4 (.750) to tie.
Boston goes 5-10 (.333), Yanks need to go 11-5 (.688) to tie.
Boston goes 4-11 (.267), Yanks need to go 10-6 (.625) to tie.
Boston goes 3-12 (.200), Yanks need to go 9-7 (.563) to tie.
Boston goes 2-13 (.133), Yanks need to go 8-8 (.500) to tie.
Boston goes 1-14 (.067), Yanks need to go 7-9 (.438) to tie.
Boston goes 0-15 (.000), Yanks need to go 6-10 (.375) to tie.
It would not shock me to see Boston play .600 ball the rest of the way, so, then the Yankees would need to go 15-1 (.938) to tie.
That’s not going to happen for New York. So, think “Wildcard” and don’t let the next three games in Fenway get you too up or down.
I could see Boston going 8-7. So it’s only going to be the WC this year.
(I’d still rather have Mo available tonight rather than have used him last night.)
If the Yanks can give Boston 3 of those losses themselves, then it becomes plausible. That’s a big if but it’s not over yet.
I would say the schedule is a little in our favor as well, as Boston gets Minnesota and Oakland, although we haven’t exactly played well against Baltimore and Tampa Bay.