~~if jonm is right, and Cabrera is available~~

I don’t claim any inside knowledge about Cabrera’s availability, but, given the facts that he is going to become very expensive very soon and the attractiveness of a package of Hughes, Kennedy, and Sanchez, I would think that the Marlins would have to strongly consider such a trade.

It would be more prudent to pay $30 million a year to a young player like Cabrera than ARod in his 30s, but the question is:
Should the Yankees do that at the cost of three top-level pitching prospects?

These arguments about how much money to pay a guy seem to always center around two principles:

1) Can the team afford to pay one guy that much money, without compromising their ability to field a winning team.

and

2) Is it prudent to do so?

I simply don’t understand these debates. First of all, we are talking about the Yankees here. The Yankees have the money to pay him. They are not the Royals. They have whatever money it takes. They also have a lot of cheap homegrown talent. Wang, Cano, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Melky. I suspect Giambi and his giant salary will be gone next year. I believe Pavano will come off the books next year. They won’t be paying Clemens however many millions of dollars next year. SO the notion that signing A-Rod for $30million per is not affordable is bunk.

So what about prudent? Frankly…who gives a damn. It isn’t my money they’re spending? They could pay him a billion dollars a year and I wouldn’t give a rat’s ass. It’s their money, they can do what they want with it. It’s not like signing A-Rod will preclude me from going out for dinner to fancy restaurants.

He’s the best and most exciting player in the game right now by a long margin. He should play for the best (read: my favorite) team.

If he does opt out, a lot of the Yanks’ success/failures will depend on who they replace Rodriguez with

R/G

TEX
2000: 5.23
2001: 5.49
2002: 5.20
2003: 5.10
2004: 5.31

NYY
2003: 5.38
2004: 5.54
2005: 5.47
2006: 5.74

In fantasy leagues, everyone is under the same salary cap, and there is usually some decent talent available in the FA pool. Not so in real baseball. So the argument is not quite apropos.

Now, if you want to argue that it’s stupid to waste $30 million a year on one player because one player can slump, decline, or get hurt, and a more sensible strategy is to “spread the risk”, and bring in 3 good players to that hole, and two other for the same price, I’d tend to agree.

Hmmm…Lowell, a decent everyday firstbaseman, and a better, younger everyday centerfielder or rightfielder. Well, you can make a case there.

But those things aren’t on the market. Going from A-Rod to Lowell, even on a good year, is a 40-50 downgrade, and no guarantee that those other commodities will be available. (Are Hunter or Rowand really worth the $40 million/4 year deals they’re going to get. Before you can finish the word “redic-”, I say the magic words “Gary Matthews, Jr.” Is Andruw Jones worth $70 million/4 years? Alright, $64 million.) What about the firstbaseman? Care to pick up Helton’s contract? Sexson’s? What about a place to rest Jorge, assuming you re-sign him?

In this particular case, the unique unity of value trumps the general priniciples. I say, yes, re-sign him, using the savings from pitching to be achieved over the next 3-4 years to add him and Santana, if necessary and available. (Only thing missing among the Yanks pitching prospects is a serious LH starter.)

On the other hand, if jonm is right, and Cabrera is available, and if he wants to stay in NY, long-term (which he has said he does NOT want), then you can look into that as an alternative.

But in most cases, the principle is wrong here. A-Rod is an inner circle Hall-of-Famer, and those guys hold their value a lot better than the average player. Even increasingly crippled in 1965-8, Mickey Mantle’s OPS+ numbers were 137, 169, 148, and 141, and A-Rod takes care of himself a million times better.

Steve, you and me have been on the same wavelength on this for some time. And if the Yankees do not win a WS this year, and I doubt they will, what has Alex really brought here. I am not saying that all the team’s failures are his fault, far from it, but really, I root for the team first, a player comes way second.

I also worry about the ‘show’ if he approaches the HR record, more about him than the team, far more if it comes to that kind of a circus.

A-Rod is one of the few irreplaceable players in the majors. The Yankees have to resign him. The only way to justify losing A-Rod is if you can deal him for Pujols, another in that rarified zone of irreplaceables.

One of the myths about A-Rod’s tenure with Texas was that his salary prohibited the Rangers from acquiring pitchers. Not true. The Rangers simply acquired the wrong pitchers, such as Park to whom they paid over $50 million I think. And with the Yankees that is even more a non-issue.

Steve,
Let’s accept your premise and say that $30 million per year is too much for one player and conclude that the Yankees should not re-sign A-Rod.

If it is assumed that the Yankees want to compete in 2008, then those 8-9 wins above average that ARod provides have to be replaced.

One route would be to sign Mike Lowell to a three year $35 million contract and try to pick up some extra production at first base with a trade of say Tyler Clippard for Todd Helton or Clippard and say, Kevin Whelan, for Helton with a little salary relief.

Or, another route that they could go is to trade Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Humberto Sanchez in a package to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Cabrera and Willis are both arbitration eligible so they would end up probably costing about $18 million between them in 2008. Trading two pitchers (Hughes and Kennedy) in a deal and only getting Willis back would leave open a slot in the rotation so to fill that they could sign someone like Kyle Lohse or Bartolo Colon as a free agent for $16 million over two years.

Which option do you prefer — #1 or #2?

Um, you normally have to pay a large sum of money for the best players for your fantasy team.

How much do you think Jose Reyes is going to go for next year, assuming $240 for 25 roster spots? But he will be worth it, since he’ll get 80 steals. In a 5×5 league, that wraps up 10% of the scoring, not counting the HR and the average over the average shortstop he gives.

You’re looking at it precicely the wrong way. You have to pay OVER top dollar to keep the best players. Someone is going to have him, and that someone is going to benefit. The Yankees have very little limit on their payroll, and since their rotation is likely to be rather cheap next year, they can most certainly afford it. Without A-Rod, they save $30 million a year, but for what? Three Paul Byrds? Or two Jeff Weavers and a Juan Encarnacion?

This argument is ridiculous. To the Yankees, A-Rod is worth every penny they give him, because the alternatives are so god-awful.

And isn’t it true that the Yankees will not have to pay luxury tax for the first few years of their new stadium? They will be RAKING in the dough during those years. They can afford whoever they want.

The percentage of team salary is irrelevant. The Yankees need to decide what value any player brings back in revenues. Maybe better players bring in better crowds or the “star power” of a player is more attractive.

Silver’s $/win for a generic team might be accurate but only the Yankees’ experience matters.

Are the Yanks attractive (to fans and haters both) if they have a good won-loss record but a group of lunch pail players or is the team more attractive with stars? As with most things I’d guess there’s a middle ground where the revenues the Yanks attract are affected by both won-loss record and perception of their customers.

Pay him. He’s worth it and besides he’ll be generating revenue as fans come to see him hit 800 HRs and buy #13 jerseys.