What The Yankees Need To Do Now
The Yankees magic number to clinch the Wildcard, now, is 12 – with 14 games left to play. But, in reality, 9 more wins (this season) should be enough to lock up the ‘card – as those wins would make it almost impossible for the Tigers to catch them.
So, where are the Yankees going to get those nine wins?
After tonight, the Yankees have a 7-game homestand followed by a 6-game road trip (to close the season).
At home, they play the Orioles for three and the Blue Jays for four. On the road, it’s three at Tampa Bay and then three at Baltimore.
Let’s assume that the Yankees win four of those six games to close the season. After all, the Yankees are just a .500 team on the road this year. And, Tampa Bay is not terrible at home this season. To expect anything more than 4-2 over the last 6 games of the season is a reach.
So, if New York needs nine wins, and they can get four in their last six games, this means they need to win five of the seven games (at home) after they play Boston tonight. (This assumes that the Yankees do not win this evening.)
This means that the Yankees will need to take 2 of 3 from the O’s and 3 of 4 from the Jays – to get those 5 wins.
So far, this season, the Yankees are 4-8 against the Orioles and 8-6 against the Blue Jays. Needless to say, New York is going to have to play better than that next week against those teams to get 5 wins in 7 games.
Or, the Yankees just better hope that the Indians, Royals, Twins and White Sox beat up on the Tigers as Detroit plays its final 13 games this season.
Boras has said he’d be looking for 7 yr’s and $30 mill to start w/. ARod’s already making $27 mill. So, say the average price is $35 mill times 7 yr’s = $245 mill, less the $33 mill owed by Texas = $212 = $30 per yr.
Forgetting Clemens and Giambi whose contracts are done by the end of next yr, the closest player in salary will be Jeter who will reach $21 mill but not until 2010.
I think the salary disparity is way too large. And, it smacks of a typical former (I hope) front office policy of buying high – AFTER the best season ever by a player.
If I was in Cashman’s shoes, I’d stand pat. If ARod opts out, so be it. If he doesn’t, the worst that happens is that we have to go through another yr of the endless will he or won’t he opt out stories.
I’m not nearly as worried about the O’s as I was last month.
They will not have 3 pitchers who give the Yanks fits, Loewen, still out for the season,Guthrie, and the biggest of all, Bedard.
Call me crazy, but I think the Yanks repay some debts in the last 13, 3-1 or 2-2 vs. Toronto, 5-1 vs. the O’s, and 2-1 vs. the Rays, and there the 9-4 or 10-3 they need to basically put this playoff spot away.