Wildcard Just As Good As First Place?

Here are the teams who have won Wildcard post-season berths (so far in baseball history) – and how they’ve done each October:

1995:
AL: Yankees | NL: Rockies
Both lost in the LDS

1996:
AL: Orioles | NL: Dodgers
Orioles lost in ALCS, Dodgers lost in NLDS

1997:
AL: Yankees | NL: Marlins
Yankees lost in ALDS, Marlins won World Series

1998:
AL: Red Sox | NL: Cubs
Both lost in the LDS

1999:
AL: Red Sox | NL: Mets
Red Sox lost in ALCS, Mets lost in NLCS

2000:
AL: Mariners | NL: Mets
Mariners lost in ALCS, Mets lost in the World Series

2001:
AL: Athletics | NL: Cardinals
Both lost in the LDS

2002:
AL: Angels | NL: Giants
Angels beat Giants in the World Series

2003:
AL: Red Sox | NL: Marlins
Red Sox lost in ALCS, Marlins won World Series

2004:
AL: Red Sox | NL: Astros
Red Sox won World Series, Astros lost in NLCS

2005:
AL: Red Sox | NL: Astros
Red Sox lost in ALDS, Astros lost in the World Series

2006:
AL: Tigers | NL: Dodgers
Tigers lost in the World Series, Dodgers lost in NLDS

In total, there are 24 Wildcard teams here. How did they do as a whole, on average?

41.67% of the time, the Wildcard team lost in the LDS
25.00% of the time, the Wildcard team lost in the LCS
16.67% of the time, the Wildcard team lost in the World Series

83.33% of the time, the Wildcard team lost somewhere in the post-season
16.67% of the time, the Wildcard team won the World Series

33.00% of the time, the Wildcard team reached the World Series

That last line really gets my attention. One-third of the time, the Wildcard team, over the past dozen years, has won the pennant (and made it to the Fall Classic). Which teams did this? They are the:

1997 Marlins, 2000 Mets, 2002 Angels, 2002 Giants, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2005 Astros, and 2006 Tigers.

When I look at these teams, the first thing that comes to my mind are some outstanding post-season pitching performances in recent LCS history: Livan Hernandez in 1997, Mike Hampton in 2000, Francisco Rodriguez and Jason Schmidt in 2002, Josh Beckett in 2003, Keith Foulke in 2004, Roy Oswalt in 2005 and Kenny Rogers in 2006.

I also see teams who got fairly good pitching performances from their starter in Game 1 or 2 of the LDS that season: Kevin Brown for the Marlins in Game 1 of 1997, Al Leiter for the Mets in Game 2 of 2000, Kevin Appier for the Angels in Game 2 of 2002, Russ Ortiz for the Giants in Game 1 of 2002, Josh Beckett for the Marlins in Game 1 of 2003, Curt Schilling in Game 1 and Pedro Martinez in Game 2 for the Red Sox in 2004, Andy Pettitte for the Astros in Game 1 of 2005, and Justin Verlander for the Tigers in Game 2 of 2006.

This all in hand, I would suggest, that, for a Wildcard team to reach the World Series, they better have a good effort from their starting pitcher in Game 1 or 2 of their LDS – followed by an outstanding LCS from one (or more) of their pitchers.

Then again, you could apply that rule to just about any post-season team hoping to reach the World Series.

This brings us to who’s pitching well now, and who is not. Here are the major league team ERAs for this month (of September) so far:

RK	TEAM	        GP	ERA
1	Cleveland	18	3.07
2	Chisox	        17	3.28
3	Yankees	        17	3.64
4	Atlanta	        17	3.80
5	S.D.	        17	3.83
6	Milwaukee	17	3.95
7	Toronto	        18	3.96
8	Dodgers	        18	4.04
9	Arizona	        17	4.20
10	Cubs	        20	4.24
11	Detroit	        18	4.24
12	Washington	17	4.37
13	Mets	        17	4.47
14	Minnesota	17	4.49
15	Angels	        18	4.50
16	Boston	        18	4.61
17	Tampa	        18	4.77
18	K.C.	        17	4.80
19	Colorado	18	4.83
20	S.F.	        17	4.93
21	St. Louis	20	5.06
22	Cincinnati	17	5.08
23	Phil.	        18	5.25
24	Texas	        18	5.47
25	Oakland	        18	5.71
26	Seattle	        18	5.77
27	Pittsburgh	18	5.80
28	Houston	        17	5.80
29	Florida	        17	6.34
30	Baltimore	18	7.11

This suggests that the Yankees, Padres and D-backs could be O.K. this post-season, as a Wildcard team, because their pitching is somewhat hot. On the flip side, it suggests that the Mets, Red Sox, Rockies and Phillies, if the make the post-season as a Wildcard team, may not have the hot pitching that you need to reach the World Series in October.

Then, again, if you have the pitching, or not, it probably really doesn’t matter if you’re a Wildcard team or not. It’s all about getting into the big dance and then having your pitchers do what’s needed.

Therefore, when the Boston Red Sox say that it doesn’t matter to them if they lose first place in the A.L. East, as long as they make the post-season and rest their pitchers, it makes sense to think this way…because it is really all about having your pitchers set-up and ready to come through in October.

And, perhaps the Yankees should look at their “Wildcard” magic number in terms of when to celebrate making the post-season in 2007 – and start to line-up their pitching for October too?

Ah, ha! Not really. Look at how the Yankees pitchers throw at home, this season, to date:

 I                G   W   L   S   CG SHO   IP     ERA    H    R   ER   HR  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  GF  GS
+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+---+---+------------+
CWang          15  10   4   0   0   0  104.1   2.85   90   33   33   6   29   1   56   4   0  15 CWang
APettitte      16   8   3   0   0   0   95.1   4.15  110   47   44  10   30   1   72   0   0  15 APettitte
MMussina       13   6   5   0   0   0   76     4.97   84   44   42   9   13   0   52   2   0  12 MMussina
RClemens        9   4   2   0   0   0   52     3.29   57   24   19   4   12   0   37   3   0   9 RClemens
LVizcaino      35   5   2   0   0   0   34.2   5.71   34   23   22   2   20   5   33   0   8   0 LVizcaino
MRivera        29   3   2  13   0   0   31.2   3.41   30   12   12   2    5   0   37   2  27   0 MRivera
PHughes         6   1   2   0   0   0   30     6.00   38   22   20   3   13   0   27   1   0   6 PHughes
KFarnsworth    28   1   0   0   0   0   27     4.00   25   13   12   4   14   1   23   1   4   0 KFarnsworth
BBruney        26   0   0   0   0   0   23.1   3.86   17   11   10   2   15   1   21   1   6   0 BBruney
RVillone       15   0   0   0   0   0   22.2   1.19   14    3    3   2    5   1   17   1   7   0 RVillone
IKennedy        1   1   0   0   0   0    7     1.29    5    3    1   1    2   0    6   0   0   1 IKennedy   

Now look at how the Yankees pitchers throw on the road, this season, to date:

 I                G   W   L   S   CG SHO   IP     ERA    H    R   ER   HR  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  GF  GS
+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+---+---+------------+
APettitte      18   6   5   0   0   0  109     3.47  115   46   42   4   35   0   68   1   0  17 APettitte
CWang          13   8   3   0   1   0   82     5.05   96   47   46   2   26   0   38   4   0  13 CWang
MMussina       13   4   5   0   0   0   64     5.06   86   37   36   5   20   2   32   2   0  13 MMussina
RClemens        9   2   4   0   0   0   47     5.17   42   28   27   5   19   0   31   2   0   8 RClemens
LVizcaino      38   3   0   0   0   0   37     2.43   23   11   10   2   21   6   25   2   5   0 LVizcaino
MRivera        34   0   2  17   0   0   35.2   2.52   34   10   10   2    7   2   33   3  31   0 MRivera
PHughes         5   3   1   0   0   0   30.2   3.52   15   13   12   4   13   0   23   0   0   5 PHughes
KFarnsworth    31   1   1   0   0   0   28.2   5.02   31   18   16   4   12   1   22   1   6   0 KFarnsworth
BBruney        30   3   1   0   0   0   25.1   4.26   24   12   12   1   19   1   14   2   9   0 BBruney
RVillone       18   0   0   0   0   0   15     9.60   21   16   16   2   11   2    8   2   6   0 RVillone
IKennedy        2   0   0   0   0   0   12     2.25    8    3    3   0    7   0    9   0   0   2 IKennedy  

Interesting, huh? For the Yankeees, Wang, Clemens, Farnsworth, Bruney, and Villone all pitch better in the Bronx than on the road. Actually, the only Yankees pitchers that get hurt in the Bronx are Hughes and Vizcaino. Mussina is about the same, home and away, as is Rivera. And, while Pettitte has better numbers on the road, it’s not like his Bronx totals are terrible.

Therefore, if pitching is important in the post-season, regardless of how you get there, and the Yankees pitch better at home – especially Clemens and Wang – then doesn’t it make sense for the Yankees to want that home-field advantage that the Wildcard does not get in the post-season?

Yesterday, I wrote that the Indians, to date, are 48-28 at home. And, the Angels, to date, are 51-25 at home. These are the teams that they Yankees would face, at least one of them, in the ALDS – regardless of how New York gets there.

Because of this, yesterday, I said “I’m leaning towards saying the Yankees should go for it…and try and win the East (if that’s what it comes down to this season). If that means you have to start Hughes, Mussina or Kennedy in Game 1 of the ALDS, so be it.”

Now, when you factor in the home/road splits of Yankees pitchers, on top of the home-field records of the Angels and Indians, there’s little question, in my mind, on what the Yankees need to do here.

Let the Red Sox punt and back into the post-season. For them, it makes sense. But, just because it makes sense for Boston, it doesn’t make sense for New York.

Finish first in the East and get that home-field edge. For the Yankees, it matters – and it matters a lot.