Yanks Contact Skills To Help This Post-Season?
You know that I’ve always had this thing about teams needing to make contact in October. Well, three years ago, Vinay Kumar did a study that suggested the following:
Interestingly, the only batting category that shows as a strong indicator of post-season success is batters’ strikeouts — the one category that sabermetricians have long called meaningless. I initially didn’t consider this alarming, because HR and K are highly negative-correlated; the players who knock a lot of balls over the fences also whiff more than their share of the time. So strikeouts and home runs would have to balance, I thought; once you know how poorly homers show up on the list, it’s not additionally surprising that contact hitting shows up so high.
But then I looked at the data, and while strikeouts and home runs are strongly related for individuals, that’s not the case for teams; the team with more home runs than its opponent struck out more often only 33/63 times (another way to put this: the correlation between home runs and strikeouts among playoff teams is only .091 — virtually nothing). So maybe the statheads have been missing something.
Tying this all together, I decided to use the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia to see which teams do (and do not) whiff a lot – compared to thier league average, as of today:
STRIKEOUTS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Twins -199 809 1008 2 Dodgers -177 825 1002 3 Mariners -174 822 996 4 Angels -154 846 1000 5 Giants -136 883 1019 6 Cardinals -125 871 996 7 Orioles -108 906 1014 8 Yankees -66 940 1006 9 Mets -54 949 1003 10 Astros -18 1004 1022 11 Blue Jays -2 1005 1007 12 Cubs 3 1005 1002 T13 Tigers 7 1024 1017 T13 Red Sox 7 1004 997 15 Royals 19 1034 1015 16 A's 56 1082 1026 17 Reds 60 1072 1012 18 Diamondbacks 67 1055 988 19 Nationals 72 1084 1012 20 Pirates 87 1097 1010 T21 Brewers 88 1087 999 T21 Rockies 88 1092 1004 23 Braves 93 1103 1010 24 White Sox 95 1110 1015 25 Phillies 148 1160 1012 26 Indians 149 1151 1002 27 Padres 156 1168 1012 28 Rangers 168 1185 1017 29 Marlins 263 1272 1009 30 Devil Rays 267 1276 1009
Based on the above, it appears that the only 2007 post-season team out there who is better than the Yankees, in terms of making contact, is the Angels. (Although the Mets are close.) Perhaps this “skill” will be an edge for the Yanks this post-season?
Here’s where the Yankees ranked, in the AL, for this stat, in the last few years:
2006
STRIKEOUTS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE T1 Orioles -132 878 1010 T1 Twins -132 872 1004 3 Angels -102 914 1016 4 Blue Jays -95 906 1001 5 Mariners -47 974 1021 6 A's -41 976 1017 7 Royals 24 1040 1016 8 Red Sox 38 1056 1018 9 White Sox 40 1056 1016 10 Yankees 46 1053 1007 11 Rangers 47 1061 1014 12 Devil Rays 96 1106 1010 13 Tigers 118 1133 1015 14 Indians 205 1204 999
2005
STRIKEOUTS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 A's -171 819 990 2 Angels -140 848 988 3 Orioles -75 902 977 4 Blue Jays -26 955 981 5 Twins -18 978 996 6 Mariners 6 986 980 7 White Sox 14 1002 988 T8 Devil Rays 18 990 972 T8 Yankees 18 989 971 10 Royals 30 1008 978 11 Tigers 56 1038 982 12 Red Sox 78 1044 966 13 Indians 112 1093 981 14 Rangers 125 1112 987
2004
STRIKEOUTS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Orioles -93 949 1042 2 Angels -86 942 1028 3 Devil Rays -75 944 1019 4 Twins -59 982 1041 5 Yankees -42 982 1024 6 Indians -34 1009 1043 7 Mariners 4 1058 1054 8 White Sox 5 1030 1025 9 A's 14 1061 1047 10 Royals 23 1057 1034 11 Blue Jays 58 1083 1025 12 Rangers 73 1099 1026 13 Tigers 114 1144 1030 14 Red Sox 163 1189 1026
The Yankees contact “skill” (as a team) this year looks to be the best that they’ve had since 2004. By the way, why didn’t it help them in 2004?
Clearly, in addition to making contact, you need to have some pitching too – if you want to win in October.
I’m skeptical.
What good is comparing full season stats when the playoff rosters (and usage) will be different? Why should Josh Phelps or Miguel Cairo’s early season at bats be an indicator of post-season performance?
The team that pitches best and holds leads will most likely prove to be the winner.
Fair point Rich.
I wondered about that too, privately – meaning, if Giambi whiffs a lot, and his numbers impact the team totals, if Torre doesn’t play him in October, then the Yankees “skill” in the LDS, LCS, etc., would be better than during the regular season.
offtopic: there has to be someone better than igawa to replace clemens…wheres desalvo, clippard, wright at?
The big question, though, is WHY? Why do certain things become more valuable in the playoffs? What changes? Here’s what I come up with…
Better starting pitching — not only the better rotations, but the better parts of the rotations
Better fielding — this would seem to make contact less valuable, though.
Better hitting — strikeout pitchers more valuable?
Closer games (I assume) — great relievers will have more opportunities to protect leads, key stolen bases are more important, and highly-variable/big output events (3-run HRs) are less efficient.
Fewer games — you don’t rest your best hitters and your top relievers.
Do any of those explain anything? Any others?
Good points Sky.
Well, if you believe that luck comes into play in a best of 5 or 7, then, having the ball bounce, or drop in, allows for luck to happen – lucky bounces, etc. Whereas, with the whiff, outside of a Mickey Owens, it’s hard to get lucky.