Paul Brewer, over at BaseballThinkFactory.org, takes an interesting look at the playoff match-ups this season. (If the Vinay Kumar reference made by Paul rings a bell, it’s because I just mentioned Kumar’s work here the other day.)
This is what Paul has to say about the Yankees-Tribe LDS:
New York’s powerful offense gives them a clear advantage in overall totals, leading in ten categories compared with Cleveland’s. However, Cleveland have a clear advantage in the strong categories, five to one. Nor is this the first time the Bronx Bombers have relied on dominance in the weak categories to carry them through. The result has been two first-round exits, and the catastrophe of 2004. I’d expect more of the same, to be honest.
As I pointed out the other day, the Yankees starting rotation has been weak the past few seasons. Still, the 2006 and 2007 staffs have been better than 2004 and 2005. And, recent history has shown that you might be able to get through the post-season with a thin starting rotation.
Game One could be the key to this series – if the Yankees beat C.C. Sabathia, that takes away a huge pitching edge for the Indians. But, if Sabathia beats the Yankees in Game One, then some of the pressure is off Carmona in Game Two – as you usually expect a split in the first two games, and a win in Game One means you’re playing with house money in Game Two.
How many hours now until Game One?