Will The Red Sox Repeat In 2008?
I was just looking at something that I studied about three years ago…which concluded that the last team to have an enormously electrifying post-season where they won the World Series and came back to win it again was the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds.
Nothing has happened in 2005, 2006 or 2007 to change that opinion, for me.
I think that coming back from 3-1 in the ALCS and then sweeping the World Series qualifies as “an enormously electrifying post-season” – would you agree?
As I wrote in that study, back then: Fighting your way into the post-season, riding the emotional roller coaster of big comebacks, and then dealing with all the distractions that follow winning a World Series may just take too much out of a team for them to repeat winning it all.
So, Yankees fans, would you agree with this? If so, does this mean the Red Sox should not be feared in 2008?
Not to be rude, Steve, but this has the feel of grasping at straws. Right now, the Red Sox are the clear favorite to repeat. The Yankees are five wins worse without A-Rod (and even worse if they don’t re-sign Posada). That may change, of course, but the big change would be if A-Rod signs with the Angels. If he does, that makes the Angels the favorites in 2008.
I have to agree with jonm.
The Red Sox should NOT be feared next year because they won the World Series THIS year? Doesn’t make much sense. Aside from Lowell – who will probably return – they haven’t lost anybody and will probably get better results from the CF and RF (assuming Drew picks it up) positions next year. Beckett has adapted to the AL and we could see similar results from Matsuzaka next year.
It pains me to say it but I think the Yankees could be fighting for the Wild Card again in 08.
~~~Right now, the Red Sox are the clear favorite to repeat. ~~~
You expect every one in their rotation to repeat what they did in 2007 in 2008? Really?
You expect every one in their rotation to repeat what they did in 2007 in 2008? Really?
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I actually think that their rotation will be a little better. Beckett may drop off a bit, but Matsuzaka should be better as he adjusts to a heavier workload. Schilling and Wakefield will hold their own as 4 and 5 starters. But the big improvement will come from Buchholz/Lester replacing Tavarez, etc.
The bullpen won’t be as good. Ortiz is going to start to decline, but Manny should have a better 2008 than 2007. And, I hate to admit it, I think that Drew will be better next year.
I don’t think the Sox will repeat coz of the resigning of Wakefield and Schill.These are two pitchers who are literally in the Twilight of their career and yes they have Buchholz in reserve,but I think that he should be where the “old guys” are.A problem in the AL East will be Toronto because according to Kevin Long they have the best 1-12 pitchers in the AL East.So that division will not be a cakewalk.And of course ,the Yankees will be competitive so that divison win will not be as easy.
I just don’t see what “an enormously electrifying post-season” has to do with what to expect for the next year. At this point there is little to say besides we should expect the Red Sox to be among the best teams in the league and the Yankees to contend for the playoffs if we sign Posada, Pettitte and Rivera. And if we fill (at least one of) the glaring holes at first and third. And if we get 2 or 3 dependable relievers as a bridge to Mo either from within or through free agency. That’s a lot of ifs.
This is off-topic, but not that off-topic. Compare these two sets of minor league numbers:
http://tinyurl.com/2qw7vn
http://tinyurl.com/2wntmd
The hype surrounding Ellsbury is at its peak, but really when you compare him with Gardner, how big of a difference is there? Ellsbury has a better batting average, but Gardner has more walks. Neither one of them are going to hit for power. Both are defensively strong CF and both can steal bases.
I think what happens at the major league level affects what people say about the minor league prospects. I remember how people raved about the Yankees farm system from 1998-2000.
–I don’t think the Sox will repeat coz of the resigning of Wakefield and Schill.–
But remember how you kept going on about damon being a ‘winner’? Schill’s done it 3 time to damon’s 1, and with 2 different teams. Whatcha make of that? Besides, pitching is scarce. If you know what pitchers they could have signed that would be better (and they wouldn’t have to give up too much) you should call the front office.
On topic, I agree with you steve. Winning the world series, the longer year, the aftermath, all the interviews, it has to take a lot out of a team. The 2005 team looked beat from the beginning. I think the 2008 team will have a better chance because they’re a younger team, but it’s still going to be a challenge.
Scouts much prefer Ellsbury’s play in CF. As of now anyway.
But remember how you kept going on about damon being a ‘winner’? Schill’s done it 3 time to damon’s 1, and with 2 different teams. Whatcha make of that? Besides, pitching is scarce. If you know what pitchers they could have signed that would be better (and they wouldn’t have to give up too much) you should call the front office Quote
Schill is 41,right?Do you really think that he can be as effective in the AL this next year?Wakefield is another pitcher that is on the other side of midnight.Look, if the rotation were to be Beckett,DiceK,Papelbon,Buchholz and Lester that sounds fine to me!That doesn’t sound like a dearth of pitchers does it?That sounds like they need to trade for Santana,right?Wrong.:)The Red Sox are a team that doesn’t have the same pitching concern that teams like the Yanks and Mets(the Mets have a ton more problems than the Yanks) have.But Schill and Wakefield….the Sox are big on cost allocation and frugality!They are in their twilight years.The difference between them and Damon is that Damon is on a team that hasn’t won since 2000!No matter what you say about him,Damon is a positive influence in the clubhouse and unlike Jeter or Arod did it in the postseason this past year.The last time I checked Mussina,Giambi,Matsui and Arod have played in the Bronx for how many years and Damon has a ring!The Yankees need a guy like him,whereas the Sox have young guys like Lester,Papelbon ,Ellsbury and Pedroia that have that spark and that team chemistry and are world champions.Nice try mate,but no cigar!
Yes, I can see how the longer year and all of the media attention can take something out of a team and how that can lead to a “hangover.” Maybe it’s harder during the ensuing season as well with everyone “gunning” for the champions and everything too. But there’s just as much chance that these experiences will make a team better too. Especially during the post-season.
In speculating about the next year though, talent remains most important, young talent in particular. At this moment, the Red Sox have a balence of talent, youth and experience in the most important areas. The Yankees do not, nowhere near to the extent of the Red Sox.
Things can change quickly, but for now the Sox should be considered among 2 or 3 teams that have a clearly better shot at winning the world series than anyone else. The Yankees are not among those teams right now. It will make it all the more gratifying if the Yankees go out and kill everyone, which could very well happen. I wouldn’t bet on it though, not without long odds.
The Red Sox certainly have that confluence of young and veteran talent but the “wild card” in that division is Toronto.If the Jays can stay healthy this year,their top five:Doc,AJ,McGowan,Marcum and Litsch(with Chacin as number six) are a very good one through five.Ryan possibly coming back will also bolster an excellent young bunch of flamethrowers.If Toronto can stay healthy(that’s a big “If”) then the Sox are looking at real competition in that division from two other teams not one.
It seems like every year the Blue Jays figure to contend. Then they are out of contention by August and finish somewhere around .500. If they do contend this year however, this feels even more like a “rebuilding year.” Would that be so tragic? Wouldn’t it be best if the Yankees missed the playoffs this year instead of making a itchy trigger finger move to cover third base or first base or any of their other needs? There figures to be a much stronger free agent pool after ’08 and the Yankees will conveniently get to dump mucho salary, i.e. Giambi, Mussina and others.
If the Yankees hold tight and favor young talent over old this year, they will better know their holes and thus know better what to pusrsue free agent wise in ’09. Managing young talent in supposedly Girardi’s great strenght, right? Maybe they even sneak in as a wild card and shock everyone in October. Could be the beginning of a new dynasty. Even if they don’t make the postseason, I’d rather miss the playoffs once or twice than endure another Winfield/ Mattingly era type drought. If they lunge at free agents this year or trade youth for free-agents-to-be like Cabrera or Santana, we field a serviceable team now at the expence of having a potentially outstanding team in just a year or two.