Stark: Yanks-Twins Santana Deal Could Be “On Life Support”
From Jayson Stark -
With the Yankee’s self-imposed deadline approaching, the Twins and Yankees were getting nowhere Monday night in their attempt to complete a deal for Johan Santana. So the Yankees were again making noises that they might pull out of the Santana talks for good.
According to baseball officials who were aware of the talks, the Twins again asked the Yankees on Monday night for pitcher Ian Kennedy — a pitcher the Yankees have insisted for several days that they wouldn’t trade — as the third player in their proposed deal. The Yankees apparently turned down that proposal immediately.
But the Twins also haven’t budged since Friday. They wanted Kennedy then, and they still do. So unless one side or the other gives, it now appears a trade that once appeared inevitable could blow up for good.
The two teams still hadn’t even met in person as of late Monday night, even though both clubs’ delegations had arrived in full at the winter meetings. It’s believed they simply exchanged proposals by phone, in what could be another indication that this trade was now on life support.
You know, the Yankees fought hard with the Red Sox to get Jose Contreras – and won – but, in the end, it was not money well spent. And, the Yankees fought hard with the Red Sox to get Carl Pavano – and won – but, again, in the end, it was not money well spent.
Maybe, just maybe, it’s not the greatest thing in the world for the Yankees to fight hard with the Red Sox, over a pitcher, and then “win” in the end – at a very high cost?
For what it’s worth, when I read that the Twins were thinking about filing tampering charges against the Yankees, today, I thought to myself “That doesn’t sound like two teams who are partnering together on making something happen…”
So, maybe, just maybe, Johan Santana will not be coming to the Yankees now?
Yes, I know: writing that should be the kiss of death. I know that I’ll wake up tomorrow and hear, first thing in the morning, that the Yankees have acquired Santana.
Well, if they do, I hope it works out better than Contreras and Pavano.
Absolutely ridiculous. Giving up Hughes would already be too much. Under no circumstances on this planet should they include Kennedy. With Hughes in the deal, Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, and Alan Horne became too much.
The Twins are flat out insane to think they should get that kind of haul for one year of Santana.
As I have said, I want to stand pat. If it takes the Twins’ intransigence to accomplish that, that’s cool too.
“Well, if they do, I hope it works out better than Contreras and Pavano.”
Why the selective memory, Steve? The last two times the Yankees traded for (arguably) the best pitcher in baseball, it worked out pretty well:
July 28, 1995: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees for Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis (minors), and Mike Gordon (minors).
February 18, 1999: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees for Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd, and David Wells.
It’s still laughable that people value Hughes so much as to say he wouldn’t be worth Santana on his own. That’s overvaluing Hughes and insultingly undervaluing Santana, who had his “worst” year as a starter in 2007: a 130 ERA+, which is better than ANY Yankees’ starter has had since Pettitte in 2002. There’s no way Hughes touches that in the next two years.
The revisionist history and selective memories of fans is pretty disgusting to me at times. Have an opinion, but at least back it up with reasonable arguments, rather than simply emotion…
No one is undervaluing Santana. We are merely questioning his potential for injury, especially in light of his statistical decline following his 17 K performance that Steve posted, and the burden of his exorbitant contractual demands.
Failing to take those factors into account when assessing Santana’s value is what is revisionist, selective, and laughable.
And btw, Clemens was basically traded for another veteran in Wells, so that’s sui generis, and no one included in the package for Cone was ever thought to have no hit stuff on the ML level, which Hughes has already shown.
So, potential for injury, and a stats trend based on a small sample size using a random data point as the start? That’s not a lot to go on there…
And potential for injury apparently means a lot more than the ACTUAL injury history of the player the Yankees are giving up… shoulder tendonitis in 2005… hamstring in 2007, caused by overthrowing in his second major league start… ankle sprain in 2007 likely caused by poor execution during his rehab…
As for exorbitant contract demands, it will be a whole lot easier to get a reasonable contract done with Santana under contract than it will be when he hits a free agent market that could possibly have two other top pitchers (Sabathia, Burnett) jacking up the price.
And finally, comparing trading for the best pitcher in baseball is a better comparison to trading for the best pitcher in baseball… rather than comparing it to two ill-advised free agent signings.
With Hughes in the deal, they can’t give up Kennedy too. They need more insurance for Moose and even Chamberlain than Igawa or Rasner. I would let the inclusion of Austin Jackson break the deal without a pause, though a part of me almost thinks “Should Kennedy kill the deal for a pitcher like Santana?” I really don’t think Kennedy is going to be much more than a four in the big leagues. But at the same time, the Yankees need pitching depth, which is what wins, and therefore I just can’t see them giving up another starter from their rotation.
If the Twins continue to insist on Kennedy, then let the deal blow up. There’s a scary part to this, though — and that is the Twins handing Santana over to the Sox for Ellsbury-plus-garbage and having to face him for the next six years. I don’t mind this deal falling apart, but I truly do not want to see him go to the Sox, either.
Incidentally — and I’m sure Steve will have this up in a few minutes — Tyler Clippard was traded for some no-name relief pitcher I’ve never heard of. He was decent in limited innings for Washington this year. He’s still young, but his minor-league numbers are really unimpressive. I’m shocked that this is all they could get for Clippard. Yeah, he struggled this year after making his debut, but he’s only going to be 23 and he dominated last year. He showed at times that he could possibly be a decent major-league pitcher. A few months of demotion-induced malaise and you ship him out for nothing? I don’t get this move at all. I would think Clippard at least still had some value as an add-on to a deal — maybe even the Santana one. Seems like a waste of a potential back-of-the-rotation guy. But at least T-Clip will get an opportunity to pitch in the big leagues in Washington. Good luck to him.
“Meanwhile, officials from other clubs said some Yankees baseball personnel at the meetings have continued to agonize over the inclusion of Hughes in their offer, out of fear Hughes could come back to haunt them for years. So clearly, the decision to include Hughes in the first place was far from unanimous.
“Cashman admitted there’s a fear that players he might trade could win Cy Young Awards for another team.”
This certainly good news.
In response to your second post:
Sample size arguments usually have potency, but when a troubling sample is the last available observation, an exception to the general rule that size matters has to be considered.
One cannot simply dismiss the statistical decline and reports that he wasn’t throwing his slider late in the season, and then give him a $150 million contract in the absence of a getting an opportunity to have him demonstrate that there are no arm issues without that risk imposing some limit on the return that the Twins should be able to reap.
I am stunned that you think that $150 million is a reasonable figure. How much more could he possibly get as a free agent when that figure would mean that he would smash all existing salary parameters for a pitcher?
Hughes did not have shoulder tendinitis. Cashman has said that they shut him down in order to preserve his innings cap as he transitioned to ML baseball from high school baseball.
The hamstring and the ankle injury were obviously freak occurrences (since it seems you are unaware, the ankle injury was sustained during a conditioning drill). The wear and tear on a soon to be 29 year old pitcher’s arm, however, is not something that can be so easily dismissed.
btw, I didn’t mention any free agent signings.
If you believe the swirling reports, Santana is on his way to Boston for basically the original package of players (Lester, Crisp and two minor leaguers). If this is true, it’s unbelievable. You would have to assume the negotiations were botched, because there’s no way the Twins would prefer Lester and Crisp to Hughes and Melky (from a money and talent standpoint). It’s like the Schilling deal all over again. The silver lining of course is that we get to keep Hughes.
>>If you believe the swirling reports, Santana is on his way to Boston >>
Swell. Are we turning out to be a late 90′s version of the Red Sox, watching from the sidelines as our rivals build a huge dynasty?
I may have to take a long break from baseball if that’s the case…
If the Twins want to take an inferior package from the Sox, there is nothing the Yankees can do. They made a very fair offer, but too often, teams want the Yankees to pay a premium in any trade.
btw, Your comparison is inapt. The Sox never had Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Horne, and the rest of the pitching depth the Yankees have. They will be fine.