Lester Vs. Hughes
I was recently asked to pick between Jon Lester and Phil Hughes. So, here goes…
Lester will be 24-years old next month whereas Hughes will be is 22-years old in about 7 months.
Lester throws left-handed and Hughes throws right-handed.
Lester was the 57th overall pick in the June 2002 Draft and Hughes was the 23rd overall pick in the June 2004 Draft.
As a 22-year old, in 2006, Lester made 15 big league starts and threw 81.3 IP. He faced 367 batters and allowed an OPS of .815 in those PA.
As a 21-year old, in 2007, Hughes made 13 big league starts and threw 72.7 IP. He faced 306 batters and allowed an OPS of .699 in those PA.
In terms of a “rookie” season, Hughes gets the edge here – as he was younger and allowed a lower OPS.
To date, Lester has faced 1,193 minor league batters – walking 203 (17%) and whiffing 446 (37%).
To date, Hughes has faced 1,030 minor league batters – walking 66 (6%) and whiffing 311 (30%).
Hughes gets the edge here for “command” – but, perhaps, Lester may get the edge in “stuff.”
Into sabermetrics? Check out Lester vs. Hughes over the last two seasons in the majors (via the CBE):
BASERUNNERS/9 IP vs. the league average
ERA vs. the league average
STRIKEOUTS/WALKS vs. the league average
GS BR/9 IP ERA SO/BB IP Jon Lester 26 -1.39 -.14 -.53 144.1 Phil Hughes 13 1.30 0.05 0.00 72.2
Again, Hughes has been better, so far, at the big league level to date. Granted, Lester has been also recovering from cancer during this time. So, factor that in, if you wish.
Still, based on the data available, it appears that Phil Hughes is the better of these two pitching prospects. Hughes has shown greater command and performance – and he’s two years younger than Lester. If given the choice to pick one over the other, based on the numbers, I would pick Hughes, today.
Is this serious? Would anybody actually pick Lester over Hughes other than Bawston fans?
Today, tomorrow, and the day after.
I’m glad you went through this excercise. As Bailey put it in the other thread, apparently the difference between the Yanks and Red Sox offers is that they’re offering up a better third prospect (Lowrie) than we’re offering.
But now at least you can stop thinking that the Twins are turning their noses up at Phil Hughes. Whatever he becomes or doesn’t become, he’s one of the five best pitching prospects in all of baseball right now and well ahead of Jon Lester by all objective measures.
IF there is any talent evaluator on this planet that would evaluate Lester vs. Hughes based on their 144 and 72 innings pitched in the bigs I would be SHOCKED.
I would also suggest that Hughes 10+ K/9 is more impressive than Lester’s 8+. I’m not sure how I reconcile those numbers with the K/plate appearances, but it seems pretty clear that Lester just allows far, FAR more baserunners.
None of those stats you have listed there really encompasses sabermetrics for pitchers. Take a look at VORP and some of the Runs Prevented metrics for a better sabermetrics take. Otherwise, you’re just rehashing averages against a sample size that’s too small to definitely conclude which pitcher will be better.
How do you pitch 483.2 minor league innings by only facing 1,193 batters?
If anyone cares what GMs and scouts think. As per Jon Heyman:
“Some people here think the Twins would be better off going with the Yankees’ deal since it includes Hughes, who most view as No. 2 type starter in time. One AL GM summed it up this way: ‘Hughes is the best they’re going to do.’”
Something is wrong with your strikeout numbers… Lester has struck out fewer batters per 9 innings than Hughes in the Minors and the Majors. Hughes is at 10.18 per 9 innings, Lester is at 8.31 per 9 innings. Not sure how you came up with those percentages.
And as a general question: Who in their right mind would ever say that Lester is better than Hughes?
Also: No mention of the hamstring injury?
Hank says they are OFFICIALLY out:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/sports/baseball/05yanks.html?ref=sports
~~~Something is wrong with your strikeout numbers… Lester has struck out fewer batters per 9 innings than Hughes in the Minors and the Majors. Hughes is at 10.18 per 9 innings, Lester is at 8.31 per 9 innings. Not sure how you came up with those percentages.~~~
I took the numbers off B-R.com…
Note my stats are K/PA and not per 9 innings…that could be it.
~~~How do you pitch 483.2 minor league innings by only facing 1,193 batters~~~
Again, I took it from B-R.com, so, maybe the data is incomplete?