From the Boston Herald’s Blog -
The Red Sox and Twins will resume “serious negotiations’’ later this morning as they close in on a blockbuster deal that would bring ace Johan Santana to the Red Sox, according to a baseball source involved in the negotiations.
The package of players the Twins receive is still in flux and there are two packages under discussion, with still varying mixes of players in each. The first is left-hander Jon Lester and center fielder Coco Crisp, the other is headed by center field prospect Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox have successfully held the line on not including Ellsbury in a package with either Lester or Clay Buccholz, their other top starter.
The names, in some combo, minus one or two, include starter Justin Masterson and shortstop Jed Lowrie.
Late Monday night, the Red Sox received a call from the Twins requesting the medical records of Lester. After reviewing the information, the Twins were satisfied that there were no red flags there that would block a deal, said the source.
“The Red Sox are legitimate, real players in this now,’’ said the source. “The Twins like their players.’’
There is no other team involved in these negotiations, it is believed. There remains a chance that the Yankees could jump back in by agreeing to include Kennedy but it remains to be seen if the Red Sox and Twins are too far down the road for the Yankees to come back. Right now, it appears so.
When I read this, the one thing that comes to my mind is: “Hmm, I guess the Twins don’t think Phil Hughes is that good?”
I mean, really, if Phil Hughes is one of the, say, top three pitching prospects (in his age group) in all of baseball, then why would the Twins not JUMP at the chance to get him? You’re going to lose Santana at the end of the season. There’s only so many teams that you can trade him to because of his salary and contract demands. When you’re between a rock and a hard place, about to lose someone who is perhaps one of the best pitchers in the game under 30-years of age, and you can replace him with someone who is 22-years old and supposedly the next coming of Tom Seaver, again, wouldn’t you JUMP at that chance?
And, in addition to Hughes, you get a young, switch-hitting outfielder, who plays good defense – and another, third, prospect too.
Well, since the Twins aren’t jumping, and they’re willing to take on of these packages offered by Boston, that strongly suggests to me that the Twins don’t think Phil Hughes is a can’t miss ace in the making.
Makes you wonder why they think that, huh?
18 Responses to “Red Sox About To Strike A Deal For Santana?”
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December 4th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Don’t forget that these are the same brilliant talent evaluators that let Ortiz get to Boston…I don’t take their opinions as the final word for a second. I don’t honestly believe Santana will make it to Boston and if he does, good for them.
The reason I feel that way has a lot to do with ARod. Personally, I pretty much hate him for not coming through in the playoffs (and yes I know Jeter did worse this year). If we were to trade Phil for Johan and he didn’t at first succeed, I could see myself (and the millions more who feel the same way about ARod) not liking Johan too much either. And if he’s a headcase like Rodriguez then we’d be screwed again. I’ve been terrified of that happening and so I’ll take my chances with Wang, Andy and the kids.
When this first came up, I wasn’t sure if Phil would ever be as good as Johan. I’m still not. But the hope that he and Joba can match Beckett and Johan very soon if we need them too keeps me anticipating next season more than ever, which I think is a damn good thing. I hope we really are out of this because it’ll kill me to think we saved Phil to see him leave after the deadline and hopefully the Twins and Sox are still bluffing like I think they have been the whole time and we can sign Johan in free agency. If not, then we do our best and go out and beat them next year. We’ve beaten Johan in the playoffs before and Beckett hasn’t been so great against us since going to Boston (obviously he was in 03 though). I still think we can compete with them and ultimately beat them if we have to, and I think Phil and Joba will be a big part of that so I’m glad we didn’t do anything stupid.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:43 am
You can’t let another team’s evaluation or strategy dicate to you what Hughes is or isn’t. Put another way, I don’t think anyone universally believes that Lester is better than Hughes. Based on your logic, you’d interpret that as Minnesota saying that he is. Well, if Boston called the Yanks and offered a Hughes for Lester swap, would you do it?
December 4th, 2007 at 11:53 am
~~~I don’t think anyone universally believes that Lester is better than Hughes. Based on your logic, you’d interpret that as Minnesota saying that he is.~~~
Yes, I am. And, I wonder why the Twins would prefer Lester over Hughes (since Coco/Melky is a wash). The only conclusion I can come to is that the Twins don’t think that much about Hughes…at least not as much as those in Yankeeland think.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Until a deal is actually completed between Boston and Minnesota, I am convinced that they’re bluffing to try and get Hank to do something stupid, as he appears apt to do so. They’re counting on him to panic and I hope he doesn’t.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Don’t forget that these are the same brilliant talent evaluators that let Ortiz get to Boston..
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Because he was injury prone, the Twins had other options, and Ortiz was about to get expensive due to arbitration.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
From what I heard on 1010 WINS, a sticking point in the negotiations was the inclusion of Kennedy in the package with Hughes & Cabrera.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
I’m surprised you’re also not questioning Cabrera’s and “mystery player #3’s” value. But of course that can’t be a problem when you can attribute it to Hughes.
Different teams value players differently. With your logic no trade would ever be made since each side always has the same opinion of a player’s worth. It’s not like the Twins’ organization has never made a mistake.
Your continuous skepticism of Hughes’ potential might be right but trying to invoke it as often as you do and any way you can only shows what you think of Hughes. I have no reason to think he’s going to be a Cy Young winner but I believe he’ll end up better than Andy Benes.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
~~~a sticking point in the negotiations was the inclusion of Kennedy in the package with Hughes & Cabrera.~~~
And, I hope it would be. Hughes alone, again, if he is the best pitching prospect in baseball, should be enough for Johan – given his ability to walk and demands, etc.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
This is Chad Jennings take on Lester from his blog
RHP Jon Lester
“Do not underestimate the value of this guy. He’s in the same league as Ian Kennedy, and you can very easily argue that he’s better. Just two years ago, Lester was considered a brighter Red Sox prospect than Jonathan Papelbon. He was more or less on par with Phil Hughes, with two of the four writers in the 2006 Prospect Handbook ranking Lester ahead of Hughes. The other two, obviously, had Hughes higher. Now 23 years old, Lester pitched well this season after coming back from cancer and profiles as a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. He is a very, very good pitching prospect.”
So maybe its not that they think that lowly of Phil Hughes(as you infer) but that highly of Jon Lester.
He breaks down all the players in the deal and comparable prospects on each team. its a good read.
http://tinyurl.com/34noc3
December 4th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
Hughes alone, again, if he is the best pitching prospect in baseball, should be enough for Johan – given his ability to walk and demands, etc.
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Assuming these demands are true, of course. I’ve been hearing things that are all over the map.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
The only conclusion I can come to is that the Twins don’t think that much about Hughes
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And, as I said, since pretty much no one else in baseball would agree with that, then we can simply be happy that the Twins would rather take John Lester over Phil Hughes. Hey, if they’d rather take the feel-good story about the kid who beat cancer but also has a 1.50-something WHIP in the big leauges, I won’t try to stop them.
Steve, even if you think Hughes is going to turn into Andy Benes, you never answered my question. If Boston called up GM Lombardi and said “Lester for Hughes. Deal?” would you do it? If the answer is no, then I will say again that you shouldn’t let what Minnesota is implicitly saying influence you. But if the answer is yes, then you’re essentially swimming upstream amidst all of the objective scouts and Baseball America types that have rated Hughes ahead of Lester.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
If the Twins prefer the Boston offer, it could also be that they are more interested in Lowrie now that Bartlett is gone than anyone the Yankees were willing to include as the 3rd player. So it may have nothing to do with the Hughes/Lester comparison. After all, Lowrie was at AAA ball while Jackson and Tabata spent most of the season in an A league.
I read one analysis that said he thought it foolish for the Twins to be focusing on acquiring a top pitcher for Santana as they are deep in pitching prospects, even with Garza gone, but thin in hitters. His view was that they would be better off acquiring a star hitter and let the #2 or 3 man in the trade be a pitcher.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
~~~Steve, even if you think Hughes is going to turn into Andy Benes, you never answered my question. If Boston called up GM Lombardi and said “Lester for Hughes. Deal?” would you do it?~~~
Let me think about it. This may call for a Coco/Melky type compare entry.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
The first thing that should come into anyone’s mind when they hear this offer is that Bill Smith is a joke.
December 4th, 2007 at 12:56 pm
There’s an assumption here (shared by Steve, I think) that the Andy Benes comparison is an insult to Hughes. Andy Benes was a fine pitcher for his first six seasons. The difference between those seasons and Santana’s next projected six seasons is quite small.
I think that Bob R. is right about Lowrie. I think that is the hidden key for the Twins. Still, the Twins should get Ellsbury, Lester, and Lowrie for Santana. I think that Ellsbury may be the most over-rated young prospect that I’ve seen in awhile. He might be Brett Butler (another fine player), but I think that Butler is his ceiling.
December 4th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Frankly, anyone that would trade Hughes straight up for Lester is flat out insane. Lester’s success in the bigs is based on a miniscule sample size, and is comparable to Ian Kennedy, not Hughes. Lester’s numbers in the minors are decent, not even in the same orbit as Hughes.
Hughes minor league peripherals are:
H/9: 5.56 HR/9: 0.20 BB/9: 2.16 K/9: 10.18 WHIP: 0.86
Lester:
H/9: 7.99 HR/9: 0.56 BB/9: 3.78 K/9: 8.31 WHIP: 1.31
Honestly, look at those numbers. There IS no comparison. The only place where they differ is their success at the ML level, and clearly Hughes suffered from his injuries.
As far as the Papelbon issue, he was a college player and was in AAA at the age of 24. Hughes won’t be 24 for three years. For as good as Papelbon’s numbers in the minors were, he was always at an elevated age for the level he was at. So saying Lester was the better prospect than Papelbon is really not saying all that much, nevermind the fact that Papelbon was always considered a starter until he switched to closer in his second year in Boston. Mariano Rivera, for all his greatness, was not a trememndous prospect, either, and never relieved in the minors except his rookie year at low A Greensboro when the guys are so young you often use two starters in every game.
December 4th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
If the Sox get Santana with just Lester then Boston has committed a bigtime heist.They get to keep Ellsbury AND Buchholz?And Crisp costs 5.5 million more than Cabrera?The sticking point might be Melky,not Hughes.If the Twins are willing to trade for a player who costs so much more than Melky then Coco’s upside is assessed in a much bigger way.That is the bottom line,even though Coco makes so much money.My point of contention is that the Yanks need depth to keep up with the Blue Jays and the Red Sox,not only a 1a ace.Hopefully,all three of these pitchers will pan out.It’s a risk,but paying Mr 6.89 at Fenway ERA 25 million a year PLUS and a Notrade clause(which Boston gives to no one) giving up talent is ultimately fool’s gold.Let the Red Sox steal Santana from the Twins and let’s see how he pans out.He might just be the Sox’s answer to Arod,great in the regular season and iffy in the post!But remember lefthanders don’t fare that well at Fenway either!
December 4th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
I’ll make this my last comment on the unending “Hmm, maybe Hughes really SUCKS!” theme…
The Twins demanded that Hughes be in the deal. Have we had amnesia about that? They said “Hughes or no deal” just a week ago. They don’t think Melky is an everyday centerfielder, and they want more than an Alberto Gonzalez-type prospect as the third player. Hughes is better than Lester and Coco/Melky might be a wash, but the Sox are offering up much better third/fourth pieces. The Yankees won’t budge on Horne/Jackson, but the Sox are willing to include highly-ranked prospects. THAT’S the difference… not that Hughes is a POS — though I assume you will never be disabused of this notion, and it will forever be a blight on this blog.