I’ll make this my last comment on the unending “Hmm, maybe Hughes really SUCKS!” theme…

The Twins demanded that Hughes be in the deal. Have we had amnesia about that? They said “Hughes or no deal” just a week ago. They don’t think Melky is an everyday centerfielder, and they want more than an Alberto Gonzalez-type prospect as the third player. Hughes is better than Lester and Coco/Melky might be a wash, but the Sox are offering up much better third/fourth pieces. The Yankees won’t budge on Horne/Jackson, but the Sox are willing to include highly-ranked prospects. THAT’S the difference… not that Hughes is a POS — though I assume you will never be disabused of this notion, and it will forever be a blight on this blog.

If the Sox get Santana with just Lester then Boston has committed a bigtime heist.They get to keep Ellsbury AND Buchholz?And Crisp costs 5.5 million more than Cabrera?The sticking point might be Melky,not Hughes.If the Twins are willing to trade for a player who costs so much more than Melky then Coco’s upside is assessed in a much bigger way.That is the bottom line,even though Coco makes so much money.My point of contention is that the Yanks need depth to keep up with the Blue Jays and the Red Sox,not only a 1a ace.Hopefully,all three of these pitchers will pan out.It’s a risk,but paying Mr 6.89 at Fenway ERA 25 million a year PLUS and a Notrade clause(which Boston gives to no one) giving up talent is ultimately fool’s gold.Let the Red Sox steal Santana from the Twins and let’s see how he pans out.He might just be the Sox’s answer to Arod,great in the regular season and iffy in the post!But remember lefthanders don’t fare that well at Fenway either!

Frankly, anyone that would trade Hughes straight up for Lester is flat out insane. Lester’s success in the bigs is based on a miniscule sample size, and is comparable to Ian Kennedy, not Hughes. Lester’s numbers in the minors are decent, not even in the same orbit as Hughes.

Hughes minor league peripherals are:

H/9: 5.56 HR/9: 0.20 BB/9: 2.16 K/9: 10.18 WHIP: 0.86

Lester:

H/9: 7.99 HR/9: 0.56 BB/9: 3.78 K/9: 8.31 WHIP: 1.31

Honestly, look at those numbers. There IS no comparison. The only place where they differ is their success at the ML level, and clearly Hughes suffered from his injuries.

As far as the Papelbon issue, he was a college player and was in AAA at the age of 24. Hughes won’t be 24 for three years. For as good as Papelbon’s numbers in the minors were, he was always at an elevated age for the level he was at. So saying Lester was the better prospect than Papelbon is really not saying all that much, nevermind the fact that Papelbon was always considered a starter until he switched to closer in his second year in Boston. Mariano Rivera, for all his greatness, was not a trememndous prospect, either, and never relieved in the minors except his rookie year at low A Greensboro when the guys are so young you often use two starters in every game.

There’s an assumption here (shared by Steve, I think) that the Andy Benes comparison is an insult to Hughes. Andy Benes was a fine pitcher for his first six seasons. The difference between those seasons and Santana’s next projected six seasons is quite small.

I think that Bob R. is right about Lowrie. I think that is the hidden key for the Twins. Still, the Twins should get Ellsbury, Lester, and Lowrie for Santana. I think that Ellsbury may be the most over-rated young prospect that I’ve seen in awhile. He might be Brett Butler (another fine player), but I think that Butler is his ceiling.

The first thing that should come into anyone’s mind when they hear this offer is that Bill Smith is a joke.

~~~Steve, even if you think Hughes is going to turn into Andy Benes, you never answered my question. If Boston called up GM Lombardi and said “Lester for Hughes. Deal?” would you do it?~~~

Let me think about it. This may call for a Coco/Melky type compare entry.

If the Twins prefer the Boston offer, it could also be that they are more interested in Lowrie now that Bartlett is gone than anyone the Yankees were willing to include as the 3rd player. So it may have nothing to do with the Hughes/Lester comparison. After all, Lowrie was at AAA ball while Jackson and Tabata spent most of the season in an A league.

I read one analysis that said he thought it foolish for the Twins to be focusing on acquiring a top pitcher for Santana as they are deep in pitching prospects, even with Garza gone, but thin in hitters. His view was that they would be better off acquiring a star hitter and let the #2 or 3 man in the trade be a pitcher.

The only conclusion I can come to is that the Twins don’t think that much about Hughes
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And, as I said, since pretty much no one else in baseball would agree with that, then we can simply be happy that the Twins would rather take John Lester over Phil Hughes. Hey, if they’d rather take the feel-good story about the kid who beat cancer but also has a 1.50-something WHIP in the big leauges, I won’t try to stop them.

Steve, even if you think Hughes is going to turn into Andy Benes, you never answered my question. If Boston called up GM Lombardi and said “Lester for Hughes. Deal?” would you do it? If the answer is no, then I will say again that you shouldn’t let what Minnesota is implicitly saying influence you. But if the answer is yes, then you’re essentially swimming upstream amidst all of the objective scouts and Baseball America types that have rated Hughes ahead of Lester.

Hughes alone, again, if he is the best pitching prospect in baseball, should be enough for Johan – given his ability to walk and demands, etc.
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Assuming these demands are true, of course. I’ve been hearing things that are all over the map.

This is Chad Jennings take on Lester from his blog

RHP Jon Lester
“Do not underestimate the value of this guy. He’s in the same league as Ian Kennedy, and you can very easily argue that he’s better. Just two years ago, Lester was considered a brighter Red Sox prospect than Jonathan Papelbon. He was more or less on par with Phil Hughes, with two of the four writers in the 2006 Prospect Handbook ranking Lester ahead of Hughes. The other two, obviously, had Hughes higher. Now 23 years old, Lester pitched well this season after coming back from cancer and profiles as a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. He is a very, very good pitching prospect.”

So maybe its not that they think that lowly of Phil Hughes(as you infer) but that highly of Jon Lester.

He breaks down all the players in the deal and comparable prospects on each team. its a good read.
http://tinyurl.com/34noc3