I know the sabrmetric revolution has’t touched the hearts and minds of every basbeball fan, and understandbly so. It’s harline objectivity is sometimes jaring to take, especially when a system like PECOTA predicts the regression of your favorite mid thirties SS with alarming acuracy. But will someone send a copy of any one of Bill James abstracts to the likes of Sherman… The fact of the matter is Johan Santana is about to exit his prime. It may not happen this season, and it may never lead to a precipidus decline in his effectiveness. But to say that Johan is in the middle of his prime is akin to predicting he will have three more years like he had in 04, 05 & 06.

Johan like most pitchers entered his physical prime in his mid 20s. And like most pitchers leaving his late 20s for his early 30s certian aspests of his Physical ability are starting to regress…(His fastball no longer sits at 93-94 but rather sits at 90-91 and tops out around 95 a few times a start. In turn, this year he was unable to get away with a 78-80 changeup up in Zone [33 Dingers this year] like he used to. To his credit, Johan has already begun to make the adjustments necessary to maintian the performance he’s shown at such a high level. Last year scouts will tell you he dropped the use of hard biting slider in favor of slurve… Wether this was a nutural progression or an intended adjustment is debatable. A nice result was his best K/9 since his unbelieveable 04 season. But I think this is just an outlier. Without some Magic potion ~ Cough Cough Schilling~~ Clemens~~ Johnson~~Cough Cough ~ Santana’s heater is likely to regress and you’d expect those K rates to decline slowly but steadily.
The Point is Santana will never pitch they way he did like he was 25 again. Thats when he was obviously at his physical peak. (Just think a second who in their right mind without the aid o some major enhancement would say they had a better body at 30, 31, 33, 34, 35 then they did at age 25.) The doesnt necessarily mean He cant become a better pitcher. Given some adjustments and baring injury Santana can likely approximate the same production he had over fewer innings. All the great ones do. The problem is this isn’t a sure thing, and it usually takes time for a pitcher thats been as good as Satana to adjust say a season or two like Seaver’s 29 yr old season (notice his peripherals before and after, not necessarily his wins or ERA).

The Crux of my argument is this and it’s Bill Jame’s for the last 30 yrs or so… Players reach their prime early than whats expected or sumized. Santana is closer to leaving his prime than he is entering it.

Actually, if Madden is correct (in today’s NYDN) the Twins were willing to accept Hughes, Melky, Marquez, and Hilligoss, but Cash talked Hank out of it because he doesn’t think investing $120-$150 million in a pitcher is a wise investment.

Actually, if Madden is correct (in today’s NYDN) the Twins were willing to accept Hughes, Melky, Marquez, and Hilligoss, but Cash talked Hank out of it because he doesn’t think investing $120-$150 million in a pitcher is a wise investment.

You guys can project Hughes and Kennedy to be anything you want. (At this point we might as well be making Hughes’ Cooperstown plaque already.)

The bottom line is we are going to lose an in-his-prime Johan Santana (maybe to the Red Sox) because we did not want to part with Ian Kennedy or another “top-level prospect” like Alan Horne or Austin Jackson.

Just so everyone knows Hughes’ velocity, and we can stop talking about it, here you go:

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Phil_Hughes.html

Over 92 mph with a torn hamstring. Say what you want about him as a pitcher, but don’t cite an 88 mph fastball when knocking him down.

Don’t know about you guys, but I didn’t reach my top strength at 21. Mo’s fastball took off at the age of ~25. Some guys have it early. Clemens, Gooden, Ryan come to mind. But a lot, probably most, of guys’ fastballs don’t really start jumping until they are a couple of years older. As good as Seaver was early, his strikeouts/IP didn’t soar until he was 25. Gibson took off ~ 28. So did J.R. Richards. Some of that is physiology. Some of that is mechanics. The one thing I’ve observed about Hughes is that occasionally his mechanics get a little off. When this happens, the most noticeable thing is that curveball stays up. But, it surely will affect the pop on his fastball as well. That will likely work out over time. I think he projects as at least a solid #2, probably better.

One other thing I can report…. based on my most trusted source… my own eyes… By mid- January, every year since 1999, I’ve personally seen Jeter running wind sprints and taking BP at the minor league complex in Tampa.

Pulsipher-Wilson-Issringhausen…
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Generation K is by far the most overused comparison in baseball. Those three pitchers do not set the standard for all future pitching prospects. Look around baseball — there are young pitchers on nearly every team contributing to their teams and in some cases dominating. How about in this division alone? Kazmir and Beckett were once highly-regarded prospects. How’d that work out? Right now teams are knocking down the door to get to Eric Bedard, who at 21/22/23 wasn’t anywhere near as polished as the three pitchers the Yankees have.

Generation K feels like someone talking about World War II at this point. Let’s try to update things a little and talk about Verlander, Hernandez, Cain, Gallardo… and a dozen more young pitchers in the game today.

What did Brower say that was so crazy? Hughes’ fastball is not overpowering. But there does seem to be something about his four-seamer that hitters don’t pick up so well. This doesn’t mean Hughes won’t be good.

Anyway, I would have traded both Kennedy and Hughes for Santana. Both of these kids could easily wind up as mediocre ML pitchers and Santana is already a dominant guy who is still in his prime.

Pulsipher-Wilson-Issringhausen…

I would rather gamble my “future” (whatever that means) on a 28-year old superstar.

you’re right, you never said you hated Hughes, i was merely exaggerating your constant negativity toward him.

but tell me where anyone called him G.O.D.
we are just very excited about the best pitching prospect we’ve had, maybe ever. the dude was 20 throwing a no-hitter in his 2nd ML start! he was our best starter in Sept. & Oct.! i know he aint perfect, but there’s a lot to be excited about, dont you think?

~All I can say is, please, chill out friends…and, please, don’t put words in my mouth that I didn’t say, OK?~

Respectfully, please don’t put words in our mouths either.

You’re right, I don’t remember you writing you hate Hughes, all I remember is reading you trying to show only the bad things and in my opinion for what it’s worth, stretching things to try to make your points.

It’s your blog, of course you should write what you want to but you’re getting back to your 2006 period of trying to nitpick about everything that could possibly show the bad side of Arod.