B.A. Experts Ring In On Santana Chase
Via the Boston Herald -
“The Twins need an offensive middle infielder,” said John Manuel, co-editor in chief of Baseball America.
Manuel prefers the Red Sox’ offer topped by lefty Jon Lester and center fielder Coco Crisp because he thinks Lester can be a middle-of-the-rotation starter and that the other offer features the Sox selling “high” with outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Each offer includes infielder Jed Lowrie and right-hander Justin Masterson.
“If they thought Jed Lowrie (.393 combined on-base percentage in Double A and Triple A last year) could be a major league shortstop, the Twins have to make that deal,” Manuel said. “The Twins are holding out for more offense. I don’t know what the midpoint is between Jed Lowrie and (Mets untradeable shortstop) Jose Reyes, but that would get this deal done. None of these offers fit the Twins’ needs.”
Jim Callis, executive editor of Baseball America, said that even if the Yankees were to include right-hander Ian Kennedy in their offer or the Mets were to include hitting phenom Fernando Martinez, neither team’s package would be better than the Lester-Crisp package (Callis’ first choice) or the Ellsbury (No. 2 for Callis) offer.
“The Red Sox are in the best position to offer blue-chip players as well as depth,” Callis said. “And, the Red Sox are under less pressure to make something happen because they need Santana less because they have fewer holes.”
Makes you wonder, if the Yankees pitched Robinson Cano to the Twins, would this then be a done deal for New York?
Yes, I know that Cano profiles, so far, to some great players. But, Cano also walks less and strikes out more than most of those favorable compare guys. And, keep in mind, right now, even if the Yankees wanted to move Derek Jeter off short, there’s no where for him to go.
Moving Robinson Cano would free up a middle infield slot. It could be a chance to move in Alberto Gonzalez to play second in 2008 – and then, in either 2009 or 2010, if Gonzalez can hold his own with the bat, flip Alberto and Derek at the keystone – with Jeter going to second and Gonzalez taking over at short.
Hey, I’m not saying “for sure” that I would do all this to get Santana. First, the contract for Santana may be a bear. Second, moving Cano could back-fire as the Yankees might need his offense in 2008 – considering their age and potential decline at some positions. Lastly, Gonzalez might not hit enough to stick in the bigs – and Jeter may refuse to move off short in the future.
But, if it’s true that the Twins want a middle infielder, and, if the Yankees really want Santana, then, it (offering Cano) should be something that the Yankees are noodling now.
I just hope that they really think it over – because I’m not sure what’s the right call on such a move.
What are you suggesting – Hughes and Cano or Hughes, Cano and Melky?
Because either way – ugh, no.
If the Twins are such cheapskates, would they want Cano? He’s going to get expensive, courtesy of arbitration.
Given the lack of strikeout pitchers on the Yanks, they may want to put the best defensive infield they have. So we may wind up seeing more of Gonzalez this year, possibly as a LIDR. Of course, I don’t see anyone who would be removed for defense (as opposed to could
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Pete – no, if Cano is to be offered, he would be the centerpiece for me. And, then, I think you have to take Hughes out of it.
Hey Steve, funny how you don’t bother to include what is really the most interesting part of these “expert” (and independent) opinions: How weak the rest of the Yankee offer is:
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The Yankees shouldn’t be dismissed because their offer is led by Hughes, a pitcher who Callis and Manuel agree is the single-best talent being discussed. Melky Cabrera is no better than an average major league outfielder, according to Callis and Manuel, and right-handed sinkerballer Jeff Marquez projects no higher than a No. 3-4 starter. Callis said Kennedy has “fringy” stuff; Manuel said he and scouts question if Kennedy has one above-average major league pitch. The two do not believe that Kennedy’s inclusion in a Yankees deal should be a difference-maker for the Twins.
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Melky just an “average” CF
Marquez no higher than a 3-4
And Kennedy, the great Kennedy, may not have a single above-average pitch and his inclusion should not be a difference-maker
Man, the view changes when those pinstripe glasses come off, don’t they? Yankee fans think he’ll be a star, the experts seem to think he’s something like a 4-5, spot starter, marginal big leaguer.
One addendum to the article. All scouts agree that Kennedy’s change-up is above-average. On Baseball Think Factory, Manuel says he was misquoted by Silverman about that.
here’s what Manuel said:
“I think Mike Silverman (who I’ll email) misquoted me. I just wrote up our Yankees Top 10 prospects (and Top 30 for the 2008 Prospect Handbook, plug plug) . . . and the Kennedy scouting report cites a plus changeup. I wrote that he does have a plus pitch and told Mike that. At his best, according to scouts, he has one plus pitch, the changeup, and three solid-average major league pitches (FB, slider, curve), and above-average command. That’s why he’s good, and he’s quite good. I think highly of Kennedy. If I had to choose, I would take Lester because he’s similar in terms of stuff and lefthanded, but they are quite similar in terms of ceiling. This also has nothing to do with my personal observations of Kennedy; it’s what scouts tell me about Kennedy.”
What confuses me about this is why Manuel would also tell Silverman a package including Hughes (who he and Callis agree is the best prospect of the bunch) and Kennedy would not beat out one led by Lester. I know positional need is important, but isn’t the amount of talent also?
Bottom line is I think the Twins are scared to *death* of losing Santana for the unknown. Hughes and Kennedy could be included in the deal but what do we REALLY know about them other than a handful of appearances on the major league level?
They want to be blown away, and I just don’t know if anyone’s going to do it for them right now. IMO if we get to ST and Johan’s still a Twin, he’s a Yankees FA in 2009.
i posted this in the next blog entry, but i’ll repost it here to keep things tidy for you here…
Steve, FINALLY something we can agree on.
I am on the record as saying the Yankees need to make the deal for Johan. You can love the kids, and the youth in the system, but this is built to win within the next 3-4 years, and having Johan at the front of the rotation assures you of your best opportunity to do so, while you can still rebuild below.
What Yankees fans need to do is make a choice: would you rather keep the Holy Trinity together, or would you rather center a package around Robby Cano?
I love Robby Cano, but its a lot easier to get your hands on a solid 2B, especially when offense from the position really is a luxury, compared to what it takes to get a stud frontline pitcher.
You could send Robby Cano, Marquez, and a third minor leager to the Twins, and they would HAVE TO jump on that.
Like you said, they could have Alberto play 2B or they could also try and make a trade for a veteran guy like Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson with your remaining farm pieces… Orlando Hudson is a FA after 2008, too, so should you want to try it out for a year and realize it’s not going to work, you know at least one gold glove 2B will be out there and available.
but your offense, sans Robby, will be just fine… you’re still going to score 900+ runs, and your defense will be at least the same and maybe even could even be better, and now you’ve got Johan, Wang, AND your three best young prospects.
You try and explain this to the masses at LoHud and people want to rip out your heart and feed it to Scooter the Squirrel.
What the hell is this obsession with Alberto Gonzalez? HE CAN’T HIT. And he’s never going to hit. Alberto Gonzalez is not a major-leaguer. I’m also not convinced he’s the magical gloveman we heard about. He didn’t look spectacular when we saw him in the field.
Getting rid of Cano with the idea of plugging Gonzalez into his spot is crazy. The downgrade in value (since his defense probably won’t be significantly better) is like replacing A-Rod with a broke-backed Joe Crede.
Alberto Gonzalez is never going to hit enough to be anything but a utility player. Your faith in him is puzzling.
I think BA overrates the Sox offer.
I hope Lester outlives me, but he is a health risk.
Crisp’s career OPS+ is 94, the last two years it was 77 and 83.
I would rather lose watching homegrown players than win with a rotisserie team composed of other organizations’ stars. If Santana makes it to free agency, they should consider signing him. If not, I wouldn’t include Hughes or Cano.
I would rather lose watching homegrown players than win with a rotisserie team composed of other organizations’ stars.
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I wouldn’t. Have you followed a team other than the Yanks over the last dozen years because of their homegrown “goodness”?
I wouldn’t. Have you followed a team other than the Yanks over the last dozen years because of their homegrown “goodness”?
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NY teams are often poorly run because they are myopically focused on winning now, which usually means never winning.
I follow the Giants in the NFL, where the draft is the lifeblood of any successful franchise.
I follow the Knicks and Rangers, both of whom have been terribly mismanaged.
Getting back to the Yankees, because of their vast revenue streams as well as the absence of a salary cap, they have the ability to build through the draft (and amateur FA signings in Latin America), often by going after high ceiling players that other teams cannot afford to sign, and then to use their financial resources to fill in where there are any holes, and to keep their best talent when they have accrued sufficient service time to earn seven or eight figure salaries.
Players that come through the system, and then are able to acclimate themselves to the pressure of playing in New York as a natural part of their development at a young age, are less likely to have the kind of difficulty of playing here that imports through trades or free agency often face, so the money spent is often more cost effective.
A homegrown core formed the foundation of the championship run in the ’90s. Hughes, Joba, Cano, and others can form the homegrown core for what can be the next run. I don’t see any reason to depart from that course.
I’m sorry for being a moron, I thought we were talking about baseball, not every sport.
Keeping it to PRO baseball since that’s what this venue is about I still want to know if you’ve given up rooting for the Yanks because most of the players are not homegrown and they haven’t been like that since WW2.
This “core” of three or four or 5 players is enough to make the team homegrown? If Pettitte is one of your core what did you do when he was in NY? What do you do when one of your core doesn’t get into the game?
I find it fascinating you’d prefer a team lose because a team doesn’t have its homegrown goodness but to each their own.
If Pettitte is one of your core what did you do when he was in NY?
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My mistake, I meant to type: what did you do when he was in HOUSTON?
I’m merely stating a preference. I get the most enjoyment from watching players develop from the time they are drafted, as they progress through the system, and then when they play for the Yankees.
Obviously, I’m powerless to effectuate that strategy, so as Seinfeld once said, I “root for cloth,” which means that if the Yankees trade Hughes (or even Joba and Cano, for that matter) for Santana, I will continue to root for them, but it would diminish, at least to some degree, the pleasure that even winning championships would offer.
I would, however, distinguish the current era from the one that began with the onset of free agency in the ’70s, in that now revenue sharing has enabled many smaller revenue teams to keep their best young players, which has placed a greater emphasis on developing and retaining homegrown players.