>> And, according to this person, Jeff’s dad kept saying, during the game, how New York was just a bad fit for his son. >>

Hmm, and that was *before* he blew up in the Series that year…

So the question becomes: Why did so many supposedly smart baseball people misjudge Weaver’s capacity to be a successful major league starter?

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“Supposedly smart baseball people” have been doing stupid things so often for so long that when they do stupid things, one must then conclude that they did it because that is what “supposedly smart baseball people” do.

I’d also dispute your claim that “newspapers hinted that he was basically an indolent, pot-smoking beach bum”. Can you provide one example? Listed below are two excerpts from NYT articles that appeared after the trade.

1) The quality of Weaver’s stuff was obvious to the Yankees, and General Manager Brian Cashman received positive reports about his makeup. Weaver competes intensely, showing emotion on the mound and a scowl in the clubhouse on days he pitches.

”Fire and brimstone, blood and guts,” Cashman said. ”Those are the words that came to mind when I asked a lot of questions from a lot of people. I engaged anybody who was close to him, and they all told us the same thing — he’s competitive to a fault, if you can be.”

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2) One major league scout agreed with that assessment. ”Lilly is like a solid 4 or 5 starter,” he said. ”Weaver is a solid 3 or maybe a 2 guy, and if he fits in well with the Yankees, he could be a No. 1 guy, too.”

That makes no sense Tex…if he was “enamored with the idea of developing a young, cheap stud pitcher”, he could have just as easily kept Lily or even better acquired Bonderman. Your logic is flawed.

With all due respect, Cashman is not a “smart baseball person.” When they acquired Weaver, there were all sorts of red flags–newspapers hinted that he was basically an indolent, pot-smoking beach bum. Anyone with an m.o. like that is never going to reach his potential, or survive in NY. Cashman is so enamored with the idea of developing a young, cheap stud pitcher (i.e. one who can reflect well on his legacy) that he overlooks their obvious flaws.

I think it would be better to break these posts down into seasons as opposed to years. For example, what Cashman did in January 2002 impacts a different season than what he did in December 2002. I agree that the 2002 season was probably Cashman’s worst simply because of the Weaver deal (even though Weaver was actually better than Lily for the remainder of 2002). Having said that, acquiring Ventura for Justice was a very good deal, as were the signings of Wells, Giambi and Karsay (at least immediately).

So the question becomes: Why did so many supposedly smart baseball people misjudge Weaver’s capacity to be a successful major league starter?

Let’s take a look at Jeff Weaver’s “personality.”

-12 RSAA with the 1999 Tigers. Oh, he must have had a bad personality for Detroit, at least during that particular year.

negative career RSAA with the Dodgers. OK, he must have had a bad personality for Los Angeles.

-19 RSAA in just 16 starts with the Angels. Bad LA personality showed up big time there.

-7 RSAA in just 15 starts with the Cardinals. He must have a bad personality for St. Louis.

-28 RSAA in 1 year with the Mariners. That shows a bad Seattle personality.

Over the past 5 years, Weaver’s -85 RSAA means he has had the 2nd worst personality in the majors. Only Casey Fossum has had a worse personality than Weaver has.

Hold on a sec, Ventura was bad impact?
2002: 119 OPS+ in 141 game
2003: 96 OPS+ in 89 game before being traded for Bubba Crosby and Scott Proctor.

He certainly was pretty good in 02 and he wasn’t terrible in 03.. and the Yanks got a decent reliever out of him.

And his decline in 03 lead to Aaron Boone’s dinger that subsequently lead to A-rod. not quiet sure how this is classifed as bad impact

“It’s a shame that no one looked into his personality before the trade to try and figure out if he was the right kind of guy for New York.”
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It’s also possible that Cash thought that they had the kind of veteran leadership and role models that could turn Weaver around. Unfortunately, I think he started to hang with Wells.