I thought this was an interesting list:
Year Number Yankees Pitchers With 25+ Games Started 1999 5 Hernandez / Irabu / Cone / Pettitte / Clemens 2006 4 Wang / Johnson / Mussina / Wright 2003 4 Pettitte / Clemens / Wells / Mussina 2000 4 Clemens / Pettitte / Cone / Hernandez 1998 4 Pettitte / Cone / Wells / Irabu 2007 3 Pettitte / Wang / Mussina 2004 3 Vazquez / Lieber / Mussina 2002 3 Mussina / Wells / Clemens 2001 3 Mussina / Clemens / Pettitte 2005 2 Johnson / Mussina
You expect to see 1998-2000 and 2003 at the top of this list. And, you expect to see 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2007 on the bottom half. But, how did 2006 sneak up there with 1998, 2000, and 2003?
The answer is Randy Johnson. The Big Unit was terrible in 2006 (5.00 ERA and -15 RSAA) – but, he kept going out there for a regular turn. (Jaret Wright was actually much better than Johnson in ‘06 – with an ERA of 4.49 and -2 RSAA.) So, really, 2006 (in terms of their placement on this list) is a freak…thanks to Randy.
Therefore, if you discount 2006, there’s a case to be made, based on this list order, that, when the Yankees manage to get 25+ starts out of 4 pitchers or more, since 1998, they’ve been a World Series club.
Another feather in the cap of rotation stability?
One would hope that Pettitte, Wang, Hughes and Mussina – and perhaps Kennedy too – could all make 25+ starts each, this season. It’s not a huge reach. But, if only three of them manage at least 25 starts this year, it could mean bad news in the Bronx (again) come October.
5 Responses to “Four Horses Key To Reaching Fall Classic?”
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January 24th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
So…the Yankees should sign Kyle Lohse to pitch terribly for four years, because they need ’stability’, right?
January 25th, 2008 at 12:09 am
Trying to do this sort of hand waving analysis is a slippery slope. The essence of what I believe Steve is trying to say is that when the Yankees have good pitchers who don’t get injured, they are World Series contenders. If starters get injured, they don’t make 25 starts. If starters stink, they don’t make 25 starts. You can replace “they don’t make 25 starts” with “they don’t have a great shot at winning the WS” in each of those sentences and have a leg to stand on.
That said, 25 starts from 4 or 5 guys isn’t some magical number that guarantees the Yankees a World Series. Mussina can certainly become that 5.00 ERA/25+ start guy if Joe Girardi wants to keep running him out there. That’s not doing anyone any good.
January 25th, 2008 at 2:37 am
Your not seeing the blantly obvious problem there Steve? you pointed out yourself that in 06 they had guys that pitched that much but because 2 of them (Wright and RJ ) sucked, it didn’t matter.
But then you want to sign a guy who’ll pitch that much.. and suck just as much… ?
Look, I can see what your getting at, but even you realize that Lohse would take a Carl Pavano deal. If you abosalutely think this is important to have someone chew up innings then your better off looking to see if Livan Hernandez would take a short deal or if Shawn Chacon has any interest.
January 25th, 2008 at 2:48 am
With the depth of pitching coming up from the minors the need to have your staff that you started the season with make all the starts isn’t as important for this season.
To me the thing that really rings home is when comparing Boston to NY last year there starters went six plus innings 15 times more and 14 were seven or more. This directly led to NY having 80 more inning out of the pen.
If you could get the big three to produce what Tim Lincecum did last year plus Mussina being better the Yankees will be more then fine.
Lincecum 24 starts with 18 going six innings plus with nine of those 7 plus.
January 25th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
That said, 25 starts from 4 or 5 guys isn’t some magical number that guarantees the Yankees a World Series.
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Yes, because there are other playoff teams in those years that fit the criteria of 25 starts from 4 or 5 guys. So why didn’t they win?