How Long To Wait On Hughes, Chamberlain & Kennedy?
How long does it take for a stud pitcher to come out of his prospect shell? For the fun of it, I decided to look at some recent examples to see if there’s a pattern. Using the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, I ran a list of the top 20 seasons for RH-SP in baseball since 1996. I’m only using RH-pitchers because lefties reportedly take longer to develop. Here’s the list:
1996-2007
RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS
GAMES STARTED >= 20
INNINGS PITCHED displayed only–not a sorting criteria
RSAA YEAR RSAA GS IP 1 Pedro Martinez 2000 77 29 217 2 Pedro Martinez 1999 71 29 213.1 3 Roger Clemens 1997 69 34 264 4 Pedro Martinez 1997 65 31 241.1 5 Greg Maddux 1998 55 34 251 6 Pat Hentgen 1996 54 35 265.2 T7 Pedro Martinez 2003 53 29 186.2 T7 Kevin Brown 1996 53 32 233 T7 Roger Clemens 2005 53 32 211.1 T10 Greg Maddux 1997 51 33 232.2 T10 Roger Clemens 1998 51 33 234.2 12 Livan Hernandez 2003 50 33 233.1 T13 Javier Vazquez 2003 48 34 230.2 T13 Pedro Martinez 1998 48 33 233.2 T15 Ken Hill 1996 47 35 250.2 T15 Curt Schilling 2001 47 35 256.2 T15 Pedro Martinez 2002 47 30 199.1 18 Roger Clemens 1996 46 34 242.2 T19 Brandon Webb 2006 45 33 235 T19 Greg Maddux 2000 45 35 249.1 T19 Tim Hudson 2002 45 34 238.1 T19 Ben Sheets 2004 45 34 237 T19 Greg Maddux 1996 45 35 245 T19 Roy Halladay 2003 45 36 266
Next, let’s look at each pitcher on this list to see when he started to show, on the big league level, that he was a star:
Pedro Martinez: Slippery Pete was pretty much effective to above-average in the majors from day one.
Roger Clemens: The Rocket was the same as Pedro Martinez.
Greg Maddux: Mad Dog was terrible in his first full season. He needed about 180 major league IP before he put it all together.
Pat Hentgen: Pretty bad in a somewhat long cup-of-coffee as a 23-year old. The next season, at age 24, he was an effective pitcher.
Kevin Brown: Same as Pedro and Rocket.
Livan Hernandez: You almost have to throw him out of this study. That 2003 season was such a fluke for him. When you take that away from his career line, he’s not a good pitcher.
Javier Vazquez: Somewhat like Hernandez (above). Take away that 2003 season and his career line reads “Average career, at best.” (Side note: Between Livan and Javy, in 2003, what were the Expos feeding their starting pitchers that season?)
Ken Hill: An interesting case. He was about league average out of the chute. Then, had a set-back in his second full season. But, by age 25 he was on his way to being a good pitcher.
Curt Schilling: Same deal was Ken Hill – in that, by the time he was age 25 he was on his way to being a good pitcher.
Brandon Webb: A star right out of the gate at age 24 – and he hasn’t looked back.
Tim Hudson: Pretty much the same as Webb – although Hudson started at 23 in the majors.
Ben Sheets: He was about league average for his first three seasons – before taking it to the next level. But, still, by age 25, he was a star.
Roy Halladay: Doc was somewhat like Ken Hill. He was about league average out of the blocks. Then, had a set-back in his second full season. But, by age 24 he was on his way to being a good pitcher.
Anyone else seeing a trend here? When you kick out Javier Vazquez and Livan Hernandez – because they were 2003 Expos flukes – there is a pattern here. These pitchers that went on to have “stud” seasons were all pretty much good pitchers in the majors either right-away or by their second season in the majors. And, by age 25, or younger, they were all on their way to being solid major league starters.
The Yankees Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will be 22-years old this season. And, Ian Kennedy will be 23-years old.
This study suggests, to me, that, come 2010, the second season of the new Yankee Stadium, if Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy are not effective major league pitchers, there’s a good chance that they may never be star pitchers in the bigs.
So, we, as Yankees fans, should give “the kids” a couple of years to see where they’re going – but, not much longer than that.
Hughes and Chamberlain have proven themselves already … Hughes had a setback because of injury but he did prove in the playoffs he was back in track. Your comment should apply to Ian Kennedy or Alan Horne.
Also, top 20 pitchers by RSAA over the last 10 years is very lofty.
Justin Verlander’s 2006 doesn’t show up on here (he had 1.3 WHIP which isn’t so hot, but he had a strong season and was the ace of that staff in 06, no question.)
Steve – If you don’t want to be accused of cherry picking on this one, run the top 50 or 60. I bet you’ll see a lot of ace type pitchers on that list well into the 30s or 40s.
~~Hughes and Chamberlain have proven themselves already~~
Really? Hughes has 72.2 IP and 2 RSAA. Chamberlain has 24 IP and 11 RSAA. What does 72 and 24 IP prove?
I really need to pick up a CBE…
Let’s see. Where are Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, jake Peavy, John lackey, Eric Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, Chris Young, Jeff Francis, Brad Penny, Smoltz etc Aka, the best pitchers in the game right now?
Looking only at the TOP 20 seasons doesn’t prove anything.
Besides, Shilling wasn’t consistently good until his age 28 season, Ben Sheets STILL hasn’t put it together (a career 113 era+ is hardly STAR), as you mention you have a few who aren’t even good pitchers, and Meaddux, Clemens, and Pedro are three of the top 15 pitchers EVER. So all in all your list doesn’t actually really tell us anything. It says that if Hughes is going to stack up against three of the greatest, well, 2 of them got off to fast starts. It also says a bunch of pitchers take awhile to figure things out.
~~~Justin Verlander’s 2006 doesn’t show up on here~~~
18 RSAA in 186 IP. That’s nice. But, it’s hardly star stuff. In 2007, he had 22 RSAA in 201.2 IP. Again, very nice, but, not elite.
~~~Looking only at the TOP 20 seasons doesn’t prove anything. ~~~
WHat “Top” Number do you think it should be? Again, I only went back to 1996. That’s very recent. Agreed, if I went back to 1973, or something, it should be deeper. But, when going back to 1996, do you need more than 20?
~~~Where are Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, jake Peavy, John lackey, Eric Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, Aaron Harang, Chris Young, Jeff Francis, Brad Penny, Smoltz etc Aka, the best pitchers in the game right now?~~~
Duh. Read the 4th line that I wrote on this, this AM: “I’m only using RH-pitchers because lefties reportedly take longer to develop.”
That’s why you don’t see CC, Johan, Zito, etc.
This post is full of shit.
first of all.
“Javier Vazquez: Somewhat like Hernandez (above). Take away that 2003 season and his career line reads “Average career, at best.” (Side note: Between Livan and Javy, in 2003, what were the Expos feeding their starting pitchers that season?)”
REALLY!?!!, so his 2001 and 2007 season were AVERAGE too? in fact, his 2001 season was arguablly better than his 2003 season if we look at it (better WHIP, only slightly higher ERA and 7 less inning and more wins) both season also happens to be better than Wang 06 and 07 so Wangs just a average pitcher too? he’s not very consistent. but if your going to cherry pick you could also say that if you take out 04 he has 7 strait season of 200 IP+ and during tha time he had 2 average season 3 great season and 2 good season.
By your definition, here is the entire list of active MLB pitcher who are above average for their career.
Roger Clemens
Pedro Martinez
Gregg Maddux
John Smoltz
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Roy Oswalt
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb
that’s it.. and i might have to think about Glavine too, since his career ERA+ is ONLY 119 , which is lower than Vazquez’s [b]average[/b] 2001 and 2007 seasons by a good margin.
and here is the list of entire list of guys in the history of the game who are somewhat good.
Walter Johnson
Gregg Maddux
Sandy Koufax
Roger Clemens
Lefty Grove
Pedro Martinez
Bob Gibson
Christy Mathewson
that’s it.
————————————————-
You also forgot to note one thing, Curt Schilling was not a very good pitching prospect, he was one of the rare cases of late boomers for SPs. in fact, as a prospect he was only about as good as Jeff Marquez… a B to B- prospect. he showed good stuff but never translate to numbers while the results were decent . he got hammered in some of the early call ups and then he was a decent relievers by 1990 the O’s thought they traded a decent reliever, a passable young 5th starter and a 4th OF that’s even worse than Melky Cabrera for a stud in Glenn Davis (who was essentially Mark Teixira of his day) only to have the reliever turn into a HOF SP, the 4th OF turn into a 300/300 guy (Finely )and the back rotation guy winning over 100 games.
~~~REALLY!?!!, so his 2001 and 2007 season were AVERAGE too?~~~
Yes, Javy Vazquez – 2001: 31 RSAA
2007: 23 RSAA
However, Javy Vazquez – 1998: -43 RSAA
1999: -4 RSAA, 2004: -10 RSAA, 2005: 0 RSAA, 2006: -3 RSAA
Or, do you not count those too?