Yanks Vs. Sox In 2008: Pitching Variables Will Determine Outcome
A case can be made, looking at both team’s offensive projections for this season – meaning “team” in the sense of all batters as a collective – that the Yankees have a better offense than the Red Sox this season. It’s not better in terms of leaps and bounds – but, it’s better. But, let’s assume that, at the worst, the two teams are equal in terms of their offense this year. This means that it will come down to pitching to see which team will be better in the A.L. East this season.
Related, here are Dan Szymborski’s 2008 ZiPS Projections for the starting rotations of Boston and New York, as they appear to shake out this season:
Name Age ERA W L GS INN ER BB K Buchholz,Clay 23 4.47 9 8 27 135 67 53 120 Matsuzaka,D. 27 3.95 15 10 28 196 86 60 177 Lester,Jon 24 4.93 8 8 29 148 81 75 100 Beckett,Josh 28 3.77 16 9 30 191 80 54 172 Wakefield,Tim 41 4.62 13 13 30 185 95 65 117 4.31 61 48 855 409 Name Age ERA W L GS INN ER BB K Hughes,Philip 22 3.70 12 5 26 141 58 40 106 Kennedy,Ian 23 4.38 9 7 26 148 72 42 94 Mussina,Mike 39 4.74 11 10 29 171 90 41 112 Wang,Chien-Ming 28 3.91 15 8 30 200 87 53 87 Pettitte,Andy 36 4.06 16 9 33 213 96 62 141 4.15 63 39 873 403
Pretty close, huh?
This suggests the following: The key for the Yankees beating the Red Sox this season has three sides to it. First, the veterans in New York’s rotation must stay consistent this season with the production that they’ve had recently. Secondly, the kids in the Yankees rotation will need to pitch better that what is a reasonable projection for them at this stage of their career. And, lastly, the Yankees bullpen will need to be better than the Red Sox bullpen – in case the offense and starting rotations for the two teams ends up to be a push.
Of course, for Boston to finish above the Yankees, based on projections, the veterans in their rotation must stay consistent this season with the production that they’ve had recently. Secondly, the kids in their rotation will need to pitch better that what is a reasonable projection for them at this stage of their career. And, lastly, their bullpen will need to be better than New York’s bullpen.
If Boston fails on one (or more) of these three things, then the Yankees can afford to fail on one (or maybe more) of their three things.
Bottom line, when it comes to pitching, both Boston and New York has elements to their plan that are variable in nature and how they end up, in reality, will determine which team has the better season.
Also, it may come down to who starts for the remaining 18 games for both teams. If the Yanks can’t find someone to spot start better then what Iqawa, Wright, DeSalvo, and Clippard did last year that will be a huge difference.
Don’t worry about those 18 games. Pavano is projected to start 14 games this year. Problem solved.
Nobody mentioned our secret weapon!
Hint:
He will make the BP better in the fist half.
He will make 14 starts in the 2nd half.
Any quesses?
(not cheating… you can’t look it up)
No offense, but I don’t agree with these projections.
I think he’s being too harsh on Buchholz — I think command issues and his weak fastball might catch up to him a bit, but a 4.47 ERA? Seems a touch high. He seems to have Beckett reverting — why? Beckett has always had the stuff; he really put it together last year. I would expect a slightly better year from him. I don’t think Mats’ strikeouts will go down so much, either.
He gave Hughes an optimistic ERA, but only 106 Ks in 141 innings? Too low. Same for Kennedy.
I’d be happy with the Mussina projection, since it has him throwing 171 innings, and Andy’s projection is just a basic career average. Wang’s ERA might be a touch high, but it’s okay.
I think he was fair to the Yankees’ pitcher (save for Phil and Ian’s strikeout numbers) but too pessimistic on the Red Sox pitchers. So I’m not too sure if this works in comparing the two staffs.
I would bet that Dan Szymborski’s system doesn’t care what team you play for, or what your name is, and treats all the projections the same, applying the same logic, to be fair.
Steve, did I say “this guy is a Yankee homer?” I’m saying in this case, where you presented two teams, his “projection system” kicked out pessimistic projections for the Red Sox and optimistic projections for the Yankees. I just don’t see Beckett reverting, Mats striking out so few, or Buchholz having such an average year.
And since I’m a Yankee fanatic, I’d be happy to see the above happen. But I think it’s unrealistic.