• Projecting The Back End Of The Rotation

    Posted by on February 22nd, 2008 · Comments (6)

    MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 is offering some composite projections for 2008. (Hat tip to BaseballThinkFactory.org.)

    That’s the good news. The bad news? See these three composite wins projections in their data: Phil Hughes, 10 wins. Mike Mussina, 11 wins. Ian Kennedy, 7 wins.

    Boy, would that be a bummer, or what?

    Comments on Projecting The Back End Of The Rotation

    1. Nick from Washington Heights
      February 22nd, 2008 | 11:30 am

      the win projections for the Sox’s back of the rotation are similar:

      Wake, 11 wins. Buccholz, 10 wins, Lester: 8 wins, Schilling, 10 wins.

      Add Chamberlain’s 10 wins, and basically their four match our four.

      It seems, however, that projection systems have a difficult time projecting wins.

    2. singledd
      February 22nd, 2008 | 3:20 pm

      There are TOO MANY mistakes/problems to even address:
      1) Just to start, there are 160+ Ws and 160+ loses
      2) Clemens has 7 Wins
      … how many ERRORS can you spot?

      Steve, you need to check your data before you post garbage.

      TEAM PITCHERS wins Loses
      NYY Albaladejo, J 3 4
      NYY Britton, Chris 2 2
      NYY Bruney, Brian 2 2
      NYY Chamberlain, J 9 7
      NYY Clemens, Roger 7 5
      NYY DeSalvo, Matt 5 8
      NYY Farnsworth, Ky 3 2
      NYY Giese, Dan 2 3
      NYY Hawkins, LaTroy 3 3
      NYY Henn, Sean 2 3
      NYY Horne, Alan 6 9
      NYY Hughes, Phil 10 6
      NYY Igawa, Kei 5 5
      NYY Karstens, Jeff 5 6
      NYY Kennedy, Ian 7 5
      NYY Marquez, J 7 11
      NYY McCutchen, D 6 9
      NYY Mussina, Mike 11 9
      NYY Ohlendorf, Ross 4 5
      NYY Pavano, Carl 3 4
      NYY Pettitte, Andy 14 10
      NYY Phillips, Heath 3 7
      NYY Ramirez, Edwar 3 2
      NYY Rasner, Darrell 3 4
      NYY Rivera, Mariano 4 3
      NYY Sanchez, H 5 5
      NYY Traber, Billy 3 3
      NYY Veras, Jose 2 3
      NYY Villone, Ron 2 2
      NYY Wang, CM 15 8
      NYY Whelan, Kevin 4 4
      NYY Wright, Chase 6 9

    3. Yu Hsing Chen
      February 22nd, 2008 | 10:20 pm

      Steve, you DO understand how projections work don’t you? it’s the MEANES, it means that it’s the middle ground between “hurt for the whole season and or completely fall apart” to “career year” ususally a good player obviously have more room to fall then to go up. that’s pretty obvious.

      Let’s take PECOTA for example. it predicted Wang to lead the team with 12 wins, if that’s taken litterally then the Yankees are fucked, but the truth is it predicted the Yankees to win the AL east.

      it’s REALETIVE. you need to LOOK AT WHAT THE OVERALL CONTEXT IS. and not just throw it out like the actual season final line.

    4. February 22nd, 2008 | 11:24 pm

      OMG. You guys act like I said this is truth about to happen.

      Chill, I’m just sharing the data in their report. I’m not saying it’s flawless and going to happen, without fail.

      It’s a projection. That’s an estimate. It’s a guess. And, it’s not even my guess.

      Put the swords down, OK?

    5. Raf
      February 23rd, 2008 | 11:31 am

      Duck season,
      Rabbit season,
      Lombardi season?

    6. February 23rd, 2008 | 11:06 pm

      Shoot me now.

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