Four days ago, the question “How many 37-year olds have posted great offensive seasons – even in part-time duty – for the Yankees?” was pondered here – which led to the conclusion that “…history tells us that we should not expect anything positive from Jason Giambi this season. And, should he actually provide some decent offense, it would be defying the odds – big time.”
In response to that item, some asked to see the data for a larger population of 37-year olds – and not just Yankees – to see what those results would show. So, since you asked, click here to see the stats (via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia).
For the cut, we used 1973 as a starting season – as that’s when the D.H. came into play. And, we used 251 PA as a minimum to allow for part-timers.
As you can see, there were 149 such “seasons” found. And, in 74% of those seasons, the 37-year old batter was not great. And, here, we’re turning a blind eye to batters like Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro and Ken Caminiti who posted good numbers at age 37 via some help. Further, in 49% of those seasons, the 37-year old posted a bad offensive season.
Using this bigger sample supports the suggestion made on Giambi four days ago. History here tells us that the odds are not in his favor. And, we should not expect anything hugely positive from Jason Giambi this season. Further, it’s just about a 50-50 chance that he should provide some decent offense at all.