Can Yanks ’08 Rotation Match ’07 Rotation?
WasWatching.com reader “Andrew” recently made the following comment at this blog (in another entry):
“…I really think you’re completely missing the boat on the ‘rolling the dice’ with the kids. Last year, the Yankees won 94 games, and their only two reliable starters were Wang and Pettitte. So, replace the rest of the junk in the rotation from 2007, and put in Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain.
Here, some proof. From starters not named Wang, Pettitte, or Hughes, in 2007, those starters compiled a nice stat line of something like a 6-something ERA. So if you expect the same from Wang, Pettitte, and a 4.50 ERA from Hughes, all the Yankees need is a 6.00 ERA from Kennedy, Chamberlain, Moose and whomever else to match last year! 94 wins! Yet the Yankees are betting the season on the young arms and if they fail the Yankees are sunk. Well, okay. But completely, utterly, false.”
This was food for thought. So, I decided to go back and look at the stats from 2007 – to see just how much starting pitchers “Not named Pettitte or Wang” helped the Yankees last season. To that end, I decided to use “Quality Starts” as a yardstick. What follows below is a breakdown by month, for 2007, in terms Quality Starts for the Yanks and who made them:
As you can see, when things were going good for the Yankees last year, they received about 15 Quality Starts from their pitchers each month. And, ballpark, Andy Pettitte and Worm Killer Wang were good for about half of those Quality Starts each month.
This means, if the Yankees (in 2008) want to “match last year” (as Andrew puts it) “the rest of the junk in the rotation from 2007” (meaning pitchers not named Pettitte and Wang) and use “Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain” (or, Hughes, Kennedy and Mussina – since everyone knows that Moose will be in the rotation to start the season), they’re going to need 7 or 8 Quality Starts from those starting pitchers “Not Named Pettitte or Wang” per month.
To me, if I’m doing my math correctly, this means that those starting pitchers “Not Named Pettitte or Wang” will need to post a Quality Start one out of every two times they take the mound. (Again, assuming that Pettitte and Wang can, combined, give the Yankees 48 Quality Starts this season, then Mussina/Hughes/Kennedy, combined, will have to give the Yankees 48 Quality Starts as well – to give the Yankees 96 Quality Starts on the year, which would be an average of 15 per month on the season.)
Personally, I still think it’s going to be a tall order – because of the advanced age of Mussina and the young ages of Hughes and Kennedy – to expect these guys to post a Quality Start one out of every two starts that they make this season. But, if someone else wants to believe otherwise, I will not stand in their way.
Outside of the big 2, there was 36 quality starts in 6 months.
6 per month…2 per pitcher #3, #4 and #5.
IMO, Hughes will be good for atleast half of those 6 per month. Especially considering how he picthed to a quality start last year.
So in effect, you will only need 18 quality starts from the other 2 pitchers.
I know you like to be negative, but you’ve got the fancy your chances of that happening.
Plus, I don’t think Pettitte and Wang are locks to be as good this year. This lack of pitching depth makes me wonder why they didn’t go after Colon or somebody, to at least eat innings for league average. I don’t see all 3 young pitchers avoiding injury or being perfectly effective this year, though I still am glad they didn’t trade for Santana.
What is the profile on the next line of potential starters in Triple-A? The DeSalvos and Clippards of the system?
Last year, the yanks averaged 13 Quality starts per month to generate their 94 win season. If you only look at the last 4 months of play quality, then a much higher win total would be expected, based upon their better play.
Let’s also keep in mind, that when you’re talkin about “when the Yankees were going good”, they were winning near 70% of their games. So 15 quality starts per month amounts to 7 wins in 10 games, which if sustained gives the Yankees more than 110 wins. Clearly I don’t think the Yankees can sustain that pace, but I also don’t think they will start out as horribly as they did last year. So barring major injuries, I don’t think 94 wins is that unrealistic.
Steve, I’m not sure why you are saying the Yankees need 96 quality starts this season.
By your 2007 totals, the Yankees needed 78 quality starts to win 94 games. Which is an average of about 1.2 wins per quality start, so if they had 96 quality starts that would give them 115 wins.
My guess would be they need around 80 quality starts to make the playoffs, which is around 13-14 quality starts a month.
Who was the last team to have 96 quality starts and how long ago was it? How many did Boston have last year? or any of the other AL & NL playoff teams? I’m just curious to see what the benchmark is, if this is something you could find out for us that would be great.
Ok so I did some of my own research and here were the highest amount of Quality Starts last year.
CLE 94
TOR 91
LAA 90
SDP 90
NYM 86
SFG 86
OAK 85
BOS 84
ARI 84
The Yankees have better offenses then all these teams, so if they get above 80 quality starts I would imagine that would be enough to get them in the playoffs, assuming the offense performs as usual.
Wang and Petitte had 42 quality starts last season, so let’s say they get to 40 to be conservative, the Yankees would need another 40 from the other “three” starters.
Those “three” starters would pitch about 32 games each, so a total of 96 games started. So the Yankees would need the other 3 guys, whoever they are, to give them a quality start a little less than every other game. Basically 40% of the time.
This scenerio is more likely than the 96, if they need 96 to make the playoffs than I agree with Steve that they are in trouble but from the looks of last year 96 is too high of a bechmark because the top team only had 94. Especially when you consider the Yankees have one of the top 5 offenses in the majors.
Also, Petitte had more quality starts (22) than Beckett did last year(20). I would not have guessed that.
~~~So the Yankees would need the other 3 guys, whoever they are, to give them a quality start a little less than every other game.~~~
And, I wrote: To me, if I’m doing my math correctly, this means that those starting pitchers “Not Named Pettitte or Wang” will need to post a Quality Start one out of every two times they take the mound.
We’re pretty close on agreeing here, no?
Thanks for making a post about me! I feel honored.
But, the definition of a ‘quality start’ is 6 innings, 3 earned runs at the least. A 4.50 ERA. If a pitcher only did that half the time (meaning the rest of his outings were worse than a 4.50 ERA), he’d likely have an ERA above 5.00! If Kennedy, Moose, Chamberlain and Hughes all do that, wouldn’t that be the definition of ‘failure’? And yet the Yankees would be fine.
Again, the kids don’t have to be great this year. They simply have to be better than the Clippards, Igawas, DeSalvos of last year. You really think that’s too much to ask?
~~~If a pitcher only did that half the time (meaning the rest of his outings were worse than a 4.50 ERA), he’d likely have an ERA above 5.00! If Kennedy, Moose, Chamberlain and Hughes all do that, wouldn’t that be the definition of ‘failure’? And yet the Yankees would be fine.~~~
Not so. I looked at all NYY pitchers with GS >=1 and ERA >=5 last season:
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Tyler Clippard
Mike Mussina
Sean Henn
Jeff Karstens
Kei Igawa
As a group, on the season, they went 22-23 – even with the great Yankees offense behind them.
So, if the last 3 in the Yankees rotation post an ERA of 5+, they’ll probably just be 500 pitchers on the year, and not much help.
But you’re still missing the BIGGEST point. With those guys, the Yankees won 94 games. And their Pythagorean record was 97 wins.
Would you please address this? Or are you considering 94 wins a disappointment?
They won 94 games despite those guys. Wang and Pettitte had to throw a QS 75% of the time to get those 94 wins. So, if Wang and Pettitte do not repeat, and if the kids and Moose are just 500 pitchers, yes, I’m saying it’s going to be hard to pass 90 wins on the season – even with the Yankees great offense.
~~What is the profile on the next line of potential starters in Triple-A? The DeSalvos and Clippards of the system?~~
Basically, it’s all the starters from Trenton last year getting their feet wet in AAA this year.
“Wang and Pettitte had to throw a QS 75% of the time to get those 94 wins. So, if Wang and Pettitte do not repeat, and if the kids and Moose are just 500 pitchers…”
Ah, so now it rests on Wang and Pettitte failing, AS WELL AS the kids failing, for the Yankees to fail this season. No duh.
Steve, how can you not say the same exact kind of thing (all of their starters failing for the team to fail) for any team in baseball?
One thing that’s missing here is that there’s also more quality sitting behind the starting five pitchers.
First, there’s Joba, who won’t start the season as a starter. Next, there’s Karstens. I really like Karstens, but most don’t. Nonetheless, he probably would have been the Yankees 5th starter last year had he remained healthy.
After that, you have two top prospects now sitting in AAA, and ready to be called on a couple months into the season: Alan Horne and Jeff Marquez. Steven White is another 5th starter possibility that will be spending the season in AAA.
The AAA Rotation is much better this year than last. No one’s going to charge through the minors like Joba and Ike did last year, but they won’t need to.
Steve- no reply to my post makes me assume you can’t defend your stance against mine…
Also, Wang and Petitte missed time last year or else they would have likely had more quality starts so even if they have down years this year they should be able to match the 42 quality starts they had last year and I still say they need to only add another 40 from whoever takes the mound the other 3 days of the week
antone – what’s your question?
~~Ah, so now it rests on Wang and Pettitte failing, AS WELL AS the kids failing, for the Yankees to fail this season. No duh.~~
I didn’t say that. Pettitte and Wang were at 75% QS last year – which is stellar. I said if they repeat, the rest of the rotation needs to be around a 50% QS rate.
Then, I said, if Andy and Wanger don’t do 75%, the rest of the rotation needs to do more.
But, if Pettitte and Wang only do 60% or 50% on QS, that’s not failing – that’s still pretty good.
Wang and Pettitte are not the issue with the Yankees rotation – it’s the other three guys, potentially.