~~Ah, so now it rests on Wang and Pettitte failing, AS WELL AS the kids failing, for the Yankees to fail this season. No duh.~~

I didn’t say that. Pettitte and Wang were at 75% QS last year – which is stellar. I said if they repeat, the rest of the rotation needs to be around a 50% QS rate.

Then, I said, if Andy and Wanger don’t do 75%, the rest of the rotation needs to do more.

But, if Pettitte and Wang only do 60% or 50% on QS, that’s not failing – that’s still pretty good.

Wang and Pettitte are not the issue with the Yankees rotation – it’s the other three guys, potentially.

antone – what’s your question?

Steve- no reply to my post makes me assume you can’t defend your stance against mine…

Also, Wang and Petitte missed time last year or else they would have likely had more quality starts so even if they have down years this year they should be able to match the 42 quality starts they had last year and I still say they need to only add another 40 from whoever takes the mound the other 3 days of the week

One thing that’s missing here is that there’s also more quality sitting behind the starting five pitchers.

First, there’s Joba, who won’t start the season as a starter. Next, there’s Karstens. I really like Karstens, but most don’t. Nonetheless, he probably would have been the Yankees 5th starter last year had he remained healthy.

After that, you have two top prospects now sitting in AAA, and ready to be called on a couple months into the season: Alan Horne and Jeff Marquez. Steven White is another 5th starter possibility that will be spending the season in AAA.

The AAA Rotation is much better this year than last. No one’s going to charge through the minors like Joba and Ike did last year, but they won’t need to.

“Wang and Pettitte had to throw a QS 75% of the time to get those 94 wins. So, if Wang and Pettitte do not repeat, and if the kids and Moose are just 500 pitchers…”

Ah, so now it rests on Wang and Pettitte failing, AS WELL AS the kids failing, for the Yankees to fail this season. No duh.

Steve, how can you not say the same exact kind of thing (all of their starters failing for the team to fail) for any team in baseball?

~~What is the profile on the next line of potential starters in Triple-A? The DeSalvos and Clippards of the system?~~

Basically, it’s all the starters from Trenton last year getting their feet wet in AAA this year.

They won 94 games despite those guys. Wang and Pettitte had to throw a QS 75% of the time to get those 94 wins. So, if Wang and Pettitte do not repeat, and if the kids and Moose are just 500 pitchers, yes, I’m saying it’s going to be hard to pass 90 wins on the season – even with the Yankees great offense.

But you’re still missing the BIGGEST point. With those guys, the Yankees won 94 games. And their Pythagorean record was 97 wins.

Would you please address this? Or are you considering 94 wins a disappointment?

~~~If a pitcher only did that half the time (meaning the rest of his outings were worse than a 4.50 ERA), he’d likely have an ERA above 5.00! If Kennedy, Moose, Chamberlain and Hughes all do that, wouldn’t that be the definition of ‘failure’? And yet the Yankees would be fine.~~~

Not so. I looked at all NYY pitchers with GS >=1 and ERA >=5 last season:

Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Tyler Clippard
Mike Mussina
Sean Henn
Jeff Karstens
Kei Igawa

As a group, on the season, they went 22-23 – even with the great Yankees offense behind them.

So, if the last 3 in the Yankees rotation post an ERA of 5+, they’ll probably just be 500 pitchers on the year, and not much help.

Thanks for making a post about me! I feel honored.

But, the definition of a ‘quality start’ is 6 innings, 3 earned runs at the least. A 4.50 ERA. If a pitcher only did that half the time (meaning the rest of his outings were worse than a 4.50 ERA), he’d likely have an ERA above 5.00! If Kennedy, Moose, Chamberlain and Hughes all do that, wouldn’t that be the definition of ‘failure’? And yet the Yankees would be fine.

Again, the kids don’t have to be great this year. They simply have to be better than the Clippards, Igawas, DeSalvos of last year. You really think that’s too much to ask?