Phil Hughes & Jaret Wright
In “The Baseball Prospect Book 2007,” John Sickels listed the Yankees’ Phil Hughes as the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. In “The Baseball Prospect Book 1997,” Sickels listed the Indians’ Jaret Wright as the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.
Just playing around with the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, looking for 21-year old pitchers who had the same relative command as Phil Hughes (last season), I set the controls for:
1997-2007, RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS who were AGE <= 21
with GAMES STARTED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 and
STRIKEOUTS/WALKS BETWEEN 0.2 AND -0.2 vs. the league average
and RSAA BETWEEN 0 AND 5.
Show INNINGS PITCHED and ERA vs. the league average.
And, this is what came up:
RSAA YEAR RSAA GS SO/BB RSAA IP ERA 1 Phil Hughes 2007 2 13 0.00 2 72.2 0.05 2 Jaret Wright 1997 1 16 -.04 1 90.1 0.19
Check it out. Twenty-one year old Über-Pitching-Prospect Phil Hughes, in 2007, had the same relative pitching results, in just about the same number of innings, etc., as twenty-one year old Über-Pitching-Prospect Jaret Wright had in 1997.
This doesn't imply anything. It's just interesting to see how close they were - all things considered.
Wright was an intimidating pitcher back then, as Luis Sojo can attest to.
what about the top prospects that DID make it? Kazmir, Verlander, Hamels, Cain, Lincecum, Beckett, Prior, Wood (if not for injuries…), Zito, Sheets, Sabathia, Lackey, Haren, Halladay were all taken in the top 2 rounds.
Just so you know, the reason why Wright failed was probably due to the 80-inning jump he had from 1996 to 1997. Hughes’ situation is not actually comparable to Wright’s whatsoever, as he has been handled EXPERTLY by the Yankees.
Also, Wright had injuries in the 1996 season which limited him to 101 minor league innings. He was also not nearly the prospect Hughes was. Hughes’ minor league stats blow Wright’s (really, most pitchers in history) out of the proverbial waters.
dude, we realize that he could fail. ok and if your going to point out all the pitchers that failed the list goes on forever. whats the point? the team has taken every precaution. it doesn’t mean he WILL succeed. but it should raise the chances. if you look at most of those guys that bombed they had some serious workload issues at an young age more often then not.
as for not implying anything, you just posted about 2 dozen posts on this blog over the last few months detailing failure cases of young pitchers and/or similar stuff. yeah right that’s not IMPLYING anything.
I don’t mean to sound like an ass. but these contents combined with your site joining SNY seem to “imply” something to the rest of us.
I’m curious about something. While walking around did you just happen to come up with this criteria out of the blue? Maybe Felix Hernandez seeped into your memory?
Many’s the time I’ve caught myself wondering who’s “…0.2 and -0.2 vs the league average and RSAA BETWEEN 0 AND 5…”
Oh, the stories I could tell like that one time talking to a banker. Don’t you know, I blurted it out to him and he said he was thinking the exact same thing! I closed the deal when I told him it was Cashman’s fault.
Yes, this is almost classic Steve “I’m not saying, I’m just saying” stuff.
Steve, why don’t you list Sickels top 5 for the last 10 years (if he’s been doing it that long.) With more to look at, we can see how believable this guy should be. Warning, this may ruin your “point”.
Steve, did you realize that one of Melky’s “comparables” through his age 22 season is Roberto Clemente?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cabreme01.shtml
Does that mean the Yankees should keep Melky from flying on aircraft performing humanitarian missions?
I’m just saying….