Moose: 29 And Out
Posted by Steve L. on April 7th, 2008 · Comments (2)
In his Yankees career, Mike Mussina has pitched in 33 games where he’s faced 30 batters or more. But, he only pitched one game in 2007 where he had 30+ BF and one game in 2006 where he had 30+ BF.
So, what are the odds that Moose faces at least 30 batters in his game tonight?
Mussina is usually good for at least 20 BF in a game – even in recent seasons. He did this 23 times in 2007 and 30 times in 2006. And, it’s not that hard for him to reach 25 BF either. But, somewhere between 26 and 29 BF is usually the limit for him. That’s fine, when you’re pitching a perfect game. But, when the league bats over .300 against you…well…that’s not so good.
Well, he only pitched to 22 batters today…but that’s because he only let 4 reach base (and one was an error).
Whether or not a pitcher has 30+ BFP is either a good or bad thing, depending on the circumstances. It’s just as easy for you to not want him face 30+ as it is for you to want it.
If a pitcher pitches 6 innings, then you don’t want him to face 30. That’s a .400 opponents OBA. And, it gets even worse if you go over 30. Every additional BFP represented another guy who got on base, raising the OBA.
If a pitcher pitches 6 1/3 IP, you don’t want him to face 30. That’s a .367 opponents OBA, and of course, it gets worse when you go over 30.
If a pitcher pitches 6 2/3 IP, then it’s fine to face 30. That’s a .333 OBA. But, you don’t want him to go to 31. That 1 more baserunner pushes the OBA up to .355.
If a pitcher pitches 7, if he faces 30, that’s an impressive .300 OBA. But, just a mere 2 more batters pushes to a league average level of .344.
How well a pitcher pitches really is not dependent on how many batters he faces in a game.