Melky & Brand Name Pitchers
Nick-YF from YFSF sent me an e-mail today that contained the following:
Recently, Bill James talked about how Craig Biggio always did poorly against good to great pitchers, and he felt that was a reflection of his innate ability (he lacked the true talent to be great, but overachieved against mediocre pitchers). To my eyes and memory, it seems that Melky Cabrera is doing the opposite. But I could be wrong. Does Melky hit better against the better pitchers in the league?
It’s an interesting question, so, I looked into the numbers.
Here are Melky’s batting stats against pitchers, to date, where he’s faced a pitcher at least 5 times.
PA BA OBP SLG OPS Jon. Papelbon 5 .667 .800 2.000 2.800 Gavin Floyd 5 .500 .600 1.250 1.850 Paul Byrd 7 .600 .571 1.200 1.771 Josh Towers 8 .625 .625 1.125 1.750 Jorge de la Rosa 5 .600 .600 1.000 1.600 Boof Bonser 5 .800 .800 .800 1.600 Javier Vazquez 8 .429 .500 .857 1.357 Tim Wakefield 5 .500 .600 .750 1.350 David Riske 6 .600 .500 .800 1.300 Jeremy Guthrie 7 .429 .429 .857 1.286 Kevin Millwood 9 .444 .444 .778 1.222 Mike Timlin 5 .600 .600 .600 1.200 Boone Logan 5 .600 .600 .600 1.200 Jesse Litsch 5 .400 .400 .800 1.200 John Bale 6 .333 .333 .833 1.166 John Parrish 6 .400 .500 .600 1.100 Ervin Santana 5 .500 .600 .500 1.100 Fausto Carmona 7 .500 .571 .500 1.071 Rodrigo Lopez 13 .364 .417 .636 1.053 Scott Downs 8 .500 .500 .500 1.000 Scott Kazmir 7 .429 .429 .571 1.000 Jeremy Accardo 7 .429 .429 .571 1.000 Julian Tavarez 7 .400 .571 .400 .971 Cliff Lee 9 .250 .333 .625 .958 Ron Mahay 5 .333 .600 .333 .933 Chad Gaudin 5 .333 .600 .333 .933 James Shields 15 .333 .429 .500 .929 Jer. Bonderman 13 .385 .385 .538 .923 Danny Haren 10 .400 .400 .500 .900 Brandon League 6 .400 .500 .400 .900 Gil Meche 11 .300 .273 .600 .873 Brian Burres 14 .364 .500 .364 .864 John Danks 6 .333 .333 .500 .833 Carlos Silva 5 .400 .400 .400 .800 Scott Dohmann 5 .400 .400 .400 .800 Shaun Marcum 13 .385 .385 .385 .770 Curt Schilling 22 .250 .318 .450 .768 John Lackey 17 .353 .353 .412 .765 Jamie Walker 7 .333 .429 .333 .762 Roy Halladay 18 .278 .278 .444 .722 Daniel Cabrera 17 .200 .294 .400 .694 Josh Beckett 29 .308 .345 .346 .691 Adam Loewen 13 .273 .308 .364 .672 Edwin Jackson 10 .333 .333 .333 .666 David Wells 7 .333 .333 .333 .666 Chad Durbin 6 .333 .333 .333 .666 Scot Shields 5 .250 .400 .250 .650 Jason Johnson 5 .250 .400 .250 .650 Jon Garland 11 .182 .182 .455 .637 Justin Verlander 7 .200 .429 .200 .629 Brian Stokes 7 .200 .429 .200 .629 Odalis Perez 7 .167 .286 .333 .619 Ted Lilly 5 .200 .200 .400 .600 Joe Kennedy 6 .250 .333 .250 .583 Bobby Jenks 6 .250 .333 .250 .583 Jason Hammel 11 .200 .273 .300 .573 J.P. Howell 9 .222 .222 .333 .555 Kelvim Escobar 8 .167 .375 .167 .542 Kyle Snyder 8 .143 .250 .286 .536 Nate Robertson 8 .250 .250 .250 .500 Casey Fossum 10 .143 .333 .143 .476 Jake Westbrook 11 .091 .091 .364 .455 Zack Greinke 7 .167 .286 .167 .453 Dustin McGowan 12 .111 .333 .111 .444 Steve Trachsel 9 .222 .222 .222 .444 Freddy Garcia 7 .143 .143 .286 .429 An. Sonnanstine 5 .200 .200 .200 .400 Hideki Okajima 5 .000 .400 .000 .400 Orl. Hernandez 5 .200 .200 .200 .400 Felix Hernandez 5 .200 .200 .200 .400 Mark Buehrle 5 .200 .200 .200 .400 Jose Contreras 14 .167 .231 .167 .398 Gary Glover 8 .143 .250 .143 .393 Erik Bedard 12 .100 .250 .100 .350 Horacio Ramirez 6 .167 .167 .167 .334 Jae Weong Seo 10 .111 .200 .111 .311 Fran. Rodriguez 7 .167 .143 .167 .310 A.J. Burnett 13 .154 .154 .154 .308 Chris Ray 7 .000 .286 .000 .286 Joel Pineiro 7 .000 .286 .000 .286 Brian Tallet 12 .100 .182 .100 .282 Barry Zito 5 .000 .250 .000 .250 Todd Williams 5 .000 .200 .000 .200 Robinson Tejeda 5 .000 .200 .000 .200 Clay Buchholz 6 .000 .167 .000 .167 D. Matsuzaka 9 .000 .125 .000 .125 Jarrod Washburn 12 .000 .000 .000 .000 Oliver Perez 7 .000 .000 .000 .000 Ramon Ortiz 7 .000 .000 .000 .000 Scott Elarton 6 .000 .000 .000 .000 Jeremy Sowers 5 .000 .000 .000 .000 Tom Glavine 5 .000 .000 .000 .000
The are some “brand name” pitchers on this list that Melky has handled well. But, of course, you have the issue of “sample size” with many of the names here. So, what if you used 10+ PA as a cut-off? Here’s that list:
PA BA OBP SLG OPS Rodrigo Lopez 13 .364 .417 .636 1.053 James Shields 15 .333 .429 .500 .929 Jer. Bonderman 13 .385 .385 .538 .923 Danny Haren 10 .400 .400 .500 .900 Gil Meche 11 .300 .273 .600 .873 Brian Burres 14 .364 .500 .364 .864 Shaun Marcum 13 .385 .385 .385 .770 Curt Schilling 22 .250 .318 .450 .768 John Lackey 17 .353 .353 .412 .765 Roy Halladay 18 .278 .278 .444 .722 Daniel Cabrera 17 .200 .294 .400 .694 Josh Beckett 29 .308 .345 .346 .691 Adam Loewen 13 .273 .308 .364 .672 Edwin Jackson 10 .333 .333 .333 .666 Jon Garland 11 .182 .182 .455 .637 Jason Hammel 11 .200 .273 .300 .573 Casey Fossum 10 .143 .333 .143 .476 Jake Westbrook 11 .091 .091 .364 .455 Dustin McGowan 12 .111 .333 .111 .444 Jose Contreras 14 .167 .231 .167 .398 Erik Bedard 12 .100 .250 .100 .350 Jae Weong Seo 10 .111 .200 .111 .311 A.J. Burnett 13 .154 .154 .154 .308 Brian Tallet 12 .100 .182 .100 .282 Jarrod Washburn 12 .000 .000 .000 .000
Here, we see Melky Cabrera not doing so well with guys like Jon Garland, Jake Westbrook, Dustin McGowan, Jose Contreras, Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett. But, on the other hand, Melky does fine against guys like Jamie Shields, Jeremy Bonderman, Danny Haren, Gil Meche, Shaun Marcum, Curt Schilling, John Lackey, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett and Adam Loewen.
Pretty much a mixed bag, if you ask me. But, at the least, this shows that Melky can handle himself against some of the best pitchers in the league – and it’s not like he’s feasting on only the weaker pitchers.
Yeah it looks pretty mixed to me.
Melky has started off the season really well and is even hitting for power with 4 HRs. Right now he has a line of .309avg/.380obp/.515slg, not bad for someone who we have seen people leave comments about as a “4th Outfielder”.
The guy is young and it is early in the season but I hope he continues to improve and proves all the doubters wrong.
Steve, thanks for giving it a go. Yeah, it does look like a mixed bag, doesn’t it?
In any case, count me as a Melky skeptic who has been pleasantly surprised by his continuing progress. We may very well have an above-average outfielder here!
Right now he has a line of .309avg/.380obp/.515slg, not bad for someone who we have seen people leave comments about as a “4th Outfielder”.
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We’ll see after the season.
If he keeps it up, great; it can only help the team.
We’ll see after the season.
If he keeps it up, great; it can only help the team.
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Even I doubt that he will keep THAT line up for the whole season…but something slightly below that is certainly possible and would be an improvement.
Right now his OPS+ is 140, so to expect him to keep that up would be too high an expectation to me, but it would be nice if he could settle in 120 range.
…it would be nice if he could settle in 120 range.
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I’d be surprised to see that. I’m thinking 100, no higher than 110
I’d be surprised to see that. I’m thinking 100, no higher than 110
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That’s why I said it would be nice if he could settle in the 120 range, as the absolute ceiling.
Do you think he’s not capable of that? and if so why?
Do you think he’s not capable of that? and if so why?
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His numbers in the minors & so far in the majors.
Melky’s problem last season was that he hit poorly in April and September:
April: .200 .237 .213 .451
Sept: .180 .236 .220 .456
but he hit very well from May 1st through August 31st:
.314 .369 .473 .842
If he is his poor months this season he can put up at least a .700 OPS, he will be fine, especially if, as he is doing now, he puts up a .900 OPS in his best months.
His numbers in the minors & so far in the majors.
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He’s only 23 though Raf and he was probably one of the youngest players at each level he played at in the minors and he never struggled.
I could see him hitting 15-18 HRs, 30 or so doubles, driving in 75-80, walking about 65 times and hitting .295-.300. I don’t think that is a stretch to say that. That would probably put him in the 115-120 OPS+ range.