Has Cano Been Unlucky?

Both Pinstripe Alley and River Ave. Blues have recently taken a look at Robinson Cano’s stats, in terms of LD% and BABIP. The conclusion in both camps is that Cano’s been hitting in bad luck - because his LD% is consistent with years passed and his BABIP is so low.

I can appreciate that logic. But, this question was nagging me: Why is Cano’s BABIP so low? Is it just bad luck? If so, because his LD% is consistent, we should see lots of line-outs, etc., among his outs, right? So, I checked.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index Batting Event Finder, we’re able to see all of Cano’s non-strikeout outs to date. I’ve taken the list and sorted them by type. Here’s the result:

Flyball: CF
Flyball: CF (CF-RF)
Flyball: CF (Deep CF)
Flyball: CF (Deep CF)
Flyball: CF (Deep CF)
Flyball: CF (Deep CF)
Flyball: CF (Deep CF)
Flyball: CF (Deep LF-CF)
Flyball: CF (LF-CF)
Flyball: CF (Short CF)
Flyball: LF
Flyball: LF (Deep LF)
Flyball: LF (Deep LF)
Flyball: LF (Deep LF)
Flyball: LF (Deep LF-CF)
Flyball: LF (Deep LF-CF)
Flyball: LF (LF-CF)
Flyball: LF (Short LF)
Flyball: RF
Flyball: RF (CF-RF)
Flyball: RF (CF-RF)
Flyball: RF (Deep CF-RF)
Foul Flyball: LF (LF Foul)
Foul Popfly: 1B (1B Foul)
Foul Popfly: 3B (3B Foul)
Foul Popfly: C (Behind Home)
Ground Ball Double Play: SS-2B-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: 1B unassisted
Groundout: 1B unassisted
Groundout: 1B unassisted (2B-1B)
Groundout: 1B unassisted (2B-1B)
Groundout: 1B unassisted (2B-1B)
Groundout: 1B unassisted (2B-1B)
Groundout: 1B-P
Groundout: 1B-P
Groundout: 1B-P (2B-1B)
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-1B (2B-1B)
Groundout: 2B-1B (2B-1B)
Groundout: 2B-1B (SS-2B)
Groundout: 2B-1B
Groundout: 2B-SS/Forceout at 2B
Groundout: 3B-1B (Weak 3B)
Groundout: 3B-1B (Weak 3B)
Groundout: 3B-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: 3B-2B/Forceout at 2B (Weak 3B)
Groundout: 3B-2B/Forceout at 2B (Weak 3B)
Groundout: P-1B (Front of Home)
Groundout: P-2B-1B
Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS)
Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS-2B)
Line Drive Double Play: SS unassisted (Weak SS)
Lineout: LF
Lineout: LF
Lineout: RF (Deep RF)
Lineout: RF (Deep RF)
Lineout: SS (Weak SS)
Popfly: 3B (Deep 3B)
Popfly: 3B (Weak 3B)
Popfly: SS (Short LF)
Popfly: SS (Weak SS-2B)

So, here’s what we have here in terms of Cano’s outs (so far this season):

20 Ground Outs To 2B
12 Weak Grounders
10 Fly Balls To Center
9 Grounders To 1B (with 3 being 3-1 putouts)
9 Fly Balls To Left (with one being a foul out)
7 Infield Pops
6 Line-Outs
4 Fly Balls To Right
2 Grounders Back To The Mound

Hmm? So, where’s the bad luck? It’s not the line-outs - since there’s only six of those. Is it all those ground-outs to second base? I quickly looked at Cano’s out charts and those balls to second seem to be, for the most part, normal plays.

While both the sabermetrics and Yankees fan in me wants to say that Cano’s hitting in bad luck, based on his LD% and BABIP numbers, when I look at how Robby’s outs have actually happened, I cannot go with the bad luck theory here.

Sometimes, big feet just mean big feet - and, sometimes, a low BABIP just means a low BABIP, I suppose?

May 2, 2008 | Filed Under Math Class

Comments

2 Responses to “Has Cano Been Unlucky?”

Travis G. on May 3rd, 2008 12:05 am

well obviously the way line drive % is measured is different than the list above. his LD % is 19, so it should show that 1 in 5 ab end in line drives. it must be a score-keeping discrepancy.
Steve Lombardi on May 3rd, 2008 12:14 am

FWIW, I’m pretty sure that LD% includes hits - whereas my list was just non-SO outs. So, most of his hits are probably LDs.

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